Today is an important day: data on inflation in the USA will be released – this will determine the direction of the markets in the near future.
There is currently no consensus regarding the data, the range of forecasts is huge, which indicates that the markets are still confused after the shutdown, and therefore surprises are possible.
Data will be released at 15:30 Kyiv time. The CPI forecast is 3.1%. If it turns out to be lower, it's positive for the market and increases the likelihood of a rate cut in January. If it's higher, pain and suffering will continue.
Just a reminder: tomorrow we are still expecting a decision from the Bank of Japan, seemingly wanting to raise the rate.
On one hand, Japan is already being discussed from every corner, and in the case of a negative scenario – a terrible collapse will not happen: it is already largely priced in. But if the rhetoric of Japanese regulators is tough, it could increase the pressure.
In general, 'we are waiting again'...
I know you are already tired of waiting, and probably fed up with these words – I am tired too, very much. But that's life.
I am currently looking at on-chain data and see how the top holders continue to accumulate wallets (100–1000 BTC on balances): they are shunning like it's not their own, they scooped above 100k and continue to do so without stopping. They are selling 'old' (those who bought a long time ago) and wallets that have less than 100 coins on balance (i.e., retail).
But sooner or later these sales will end.
Look at yesterday's history: they started spreading FUD about Venezuela, but Bitcoin hasn't even updated Monday's low of $85146, while the S&P 500 lost 1.16%.
This tells us that the potential for downward movement is becoming less and less – there are simply no weak hands left in the market.
By the way, in Japan, discussions have begun that raising the rate is a bad idea. Perhaps they won't raise it tomorrow, which is a positive not reflected in the prices.
