Last night, once the non-farm data was released, the market was completely stunned. Employment numbers exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate soared to 4.6%, a four-year high. This scenario seems to tell you, 'The economy is booming, but everyone can't find a job.' The data is in such conflict that even the Federal Reserve has to scratch their heads.
What’s even more exciting is the Federal Reserve Chairman’s ‘Game of Thrones’: Waller suddenly took away voting rights from Wosh, and Hassett is back in the lead with a 54% approval rating. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Basant directly threw out a bombshell: every household will receive $1,000-2,000 early next year, with a total of $100-150 billion being pumped in the first quarter! This wave of operations feels just like the money-spending spree during the 2020 pandemic, but this time, there are hidden dangers in the game.
01 Behind data distortion, the Federal Reserve's 'mutual combat'
On the surface, the record high unemployment rate should have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, but the market's bets on a January rate cut have only slightly increased to 23%. Why? Severe data distortion has become the new normal. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators, and the Federal Reserve is like a pilot flying in the fog, with half the dashboard malfunctioning.
The division within the Federal Reserve is even more pronounced. Dovish officials like Waller and Daly emphasize that 'a deterioration in the job market necessitates rate cuts', while hawks remain fixated on inflation. This internal conflict turns policy signals into 'Schrödinger's rate cut': it could suddenly loosen or shift to tightening based on a single inflation data point.
The dot plot has become the most dangerous guessing game in the market. The latest dot plot suggests the median interest rate next year will be between 3.25% and 3.5%, but if Hassett takes office, it could accelerate rate cuts to below 3%. This uncertainty is more tormenting than known bearish factors.
02 Universal cash distribution: The 'adrenaline' of the crypto market
The confirmed trillion-level cash distribution plan by Bessenet is the most certain short-term benefit. History does not repeat itself simply, but it does rhyme: After cash distribution during the pandemic in 2021, about 15% of the check funds indirectly flowed into the crypto market, with Bitcoin soaring from $40,000 to $65,000.
The difference this time is:
Smoother capital entry: BTC/ETH spot ETFs are now online, allowing retail investors to allocate with just a few taps on their phones.
Doubled social acceptance: Crypto assets are no longer marginal speculation but 'digital gold' for Generation Z.
Stronger leverage effect: The current derivatives market size is three times that of 2021, allowing even small amounts of capital to leverage significant volatility.
But beware of 'good news turning into bad news'! Polymarket predictions show that the probability of the Supreme Court approving Trump's tariff policy is only 20%, and the source of this funding may never materialize. The current revelry may just be another 'expectation trade'.
03 Three hidden landmines in 2026: Don't wait until they explode to regret.
The first landmine: Pausing interest rate cuts + government shutdown again.
The Federal Reserve has hinted at potentially pausing after three preemptive rate cuts, while bipartisan disagreements in Congress may lead to another government shutdown. Historical data shows that during shutdowns, liquidity in the crypto market shrinks by 30%, with Bitcoin stagnating and altcoins suffering greatly.
The second landmine: The Bank of Japan's shift.
The last bastion of zero interest rates globally may raise rates, triggering arbitrage trading liquidations. If Japanese bond yields surge, capital will flow back to Japan from high-risk assets, and Asian crypto exchanges may face massive redemption pressures.
The third landmine: MSCI index cleansing.
MSCI is assessing the removal of digital asset companies from its index. If companies holding over 50% crypto exposure are excluded, it may trigger passive selling from institutions. Companies like Microstrategy hold 60% of Bitcoin, and if they sell, it could lead to a chain reaction of crashes.
04 Retail Survival Guide: Don't lose chips in revelry.
1. Take profits in batches; don't wait for policy reversals.
The period before and after cash distribution often marks a temporary peak. Referencing 2021's experience, reduce positions by 30% when good news is realized, and keep some powder dry to cope with pullbacks. Remember: miners and VCs are all waiting to offload; don't be the last one holding the bag.
2. Pay attention to real liquidity indicators.
Replacing the 'fear and greed index', a more effective indicator is:
The growth rate of stablecoin supply (especially the issuance speed of USDT);
Net inflow/outflow of exchanges (large whales withdrawing is the real positive);
The scale of government bond tokenization (Blackrock's BUIDL fund has already attracted billions, representing traditional capital entering the market).
3. Betting on 'practical assets'
2026 is a crucial year for digital assets to transition from speculation to practical value. Key layout:
RWA (real asset tokenization): Isn't the annual yield of over 5% from U.S. government bond tokens appealing?
Protocols generating cash flow: Tokens with income buyback mechanisms like Uniswap and Lido.
Bitcoin Layer 2: The Lightning Network ecosystem is set to explode.
Conclusion: The bull market grows amidst doubts and ends in revelry.
The current market feels like the oppressive heat before a downpour—data contradictions, policy swings, extreme emotions. But those who truly make big money are the ones who dare to bet on certainty amidst uncertainty: cash distribution stimulates emotions in the short term, but in the long run, practical assets will ultimately prevail.
The biggest alpha in 2026 may be hidden in the 'boring' fields that you currently overlook: RWA, government bond tokens, on-chain government bonds... When cryptocurrency trading transitions from gambling to allocation, it becomes an opportunity for ordinary people.
(This article only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.)
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