$ETH Evening Thoughts:
Looking at the chart: the current trend of the second contract is lifeless, and there is no desire to trade it; it is tasteless to eat, yet a pity to discard.
When can the second contract break through the wedge pattern on the hourly level? If it cannot break through the wedge, maintaining a range within it would be good enough. If it breaks the wedge, we can look at the resistance level of 2885 above. The resistance level of 2885 is a critical position that supported four times before being broken in the fifth. The current 2885 has changed from support to resistance; it is difficult to break through in one go unless there is favorable news to support it. It took five times to break, so a real breakthrough would need at least three attempts. If it breaks through 2885, the second contract on the hourly level will stop falling, and we can look forward to 2926. If it doesn’t rise above, this is a strong resistance. If it pulls back, the wedge should ideally not break. If the wedge is broken, it will definitely retest the previous low of 2788. If it retests this low again, I think this low may not hold, and a new low might appear.
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If the second contract breaks 2853 with volume, look to go long on the right side; if it breaks 2829 with volume, look to go short on the right side. Pay attention to changes in volume and set stop losses properly.
The second contract on the hourly level stabilizing above 2885 looks upwards towards 2926-2967.
On the 4-hour level, if it breaks 2832, look down towards 2789-2713. If it breaks 2832, the second contract will continue on a correction route.
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Continuing to look at the chart: why has the second contract been so strong a few days ago and now so soft? Let’s look at the exchange rate of the second contract!
The exchange rate of the second contract on the daily level spiked up after a false breakout at 0.03605, then encountered resistance and fell back, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. It then began to correct, rebounding at the upper boundary of the wedge but failed to stabilize above 0.03465, then formed another bearish engulfing on the daily level and fell back into the wedge. If the exchange rate is so soft, how can the second contract be strong? The current exchange rate is supported by the lower boundary of the wedge and 0.03273, preventing further declines. If it breaks the wedge and the support at 0.03273, it will have to test 0.03090; the second contract cannot rise! Because the exchange rate is dragging the second contract back, just like carrying your wife, how fast can you run? Not falling is already good enough. Tonight at 9:30, there will be CPI data released; let’s see if tonight's CPI can save the current market! Meeting adjourned.
