The five-year lock-up period for FIL has ended, miners are withdrawing; is this a good opportunity for retail investors to pick up bargains? Last night, the backend was flooded with inquiries asking, “Can we still invest in FIL?”
To go straight to the conclusion: Yes, you can invest, but don’t expect it to skyrocket immediately; treating it as a deposit that generates interest is more reliable.
Let's first talk about the miners' withdrawal. FIL officially launched on the mainnet in October 2020, and the first batch of miners who signed five-year contracts will start to see their contracts expire in the fourth quarter of this year, leading to the decommissioning of machines and a natural drop in computing power. A look at the data shows that it’s not that the project is failing; it’s just that the lease is ending and they don’t want to renew it, much like moving out of a rental apartment. With fewer miners, the selling pressure in the market will also decrease.
The linear unlocking of FIL has passed the halfway mark, and the most intense selling phase has already passed. As the remaining tokens are unlocked, they become more dispersed, reducing the number of “time bombs.”
So what can retail investors do? Just store the spot in a cold wallet and wait? That would be too costly. Many exchanges are now offering 3-month fixed-term financial products for FIL with annualized yields of 6% to 10%. Locking it away for interest is a better deal than what UNI and SUSHI offer. With the market fluctuating sideways, engaging in contracts can easily lead to being cut both ways; it's better to allocate a portion of your position to slowly accumulate spot, while also earning some interest. Following both paths together will allow for gradual recovery.
On the institutional side, it’s more direct; Grayscale has quietly purchased FIL 86 times this year, with an average cost of about 10 dollars. With such significant pressure on their annual performance, they can only rely on this “stupid method” of dollar-cost averaging.
Let’s learn from them: when prices drop, add to your position; when they rise, just lie back and collect interest. By next year, when the market warms up, having coins and earning interest will bring much more peace of mind.
To summarize, stop always thinking about getting rich quickly. Treat FIL as a fixed deposit during bear markets, and use the interest as an extra bonus during bull markets; this is how ordinary people can steadily earn and turn their fortunes around. Those who can make money in the market have always been the ones who dare to take the first step.
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