Last night's fluctuation was not a normal market movement; it was clearly a targeted 'encirclement' of everyone. Don't think that the price fluctuations you see are just simple market changes; the outcome might have been predetermined. Last night's scene in the crypto world was simply crazily extreme. When the U.S. stock market opened, the price of the second coin first reached 2880, then it shot up like a rocket to 3030, only to crash back down to 2800 with a 'bang.' This is not normal market turbulence; it's the forces behind manipulating the trends on purpose.
Every sudden market shift is a harsh manipulation of everyone's thoughts about being greedy and fearing losses. You might be thrilled by the sudden profit appearing in your account, but in the next second, the system's closing order might have already been issued; as soon as you see the price plummet, you panic and hastily sell at a loss, unaware that the chips you've thrown out have long been targeted by someone in the shadows, quietly taken away. This is not normal market behavior; it’s indiscriminately cleaning up all investors, regardless of whether they are holding long or short positions.
In this market where both bulls and bears have been quickly harvested, no one can rely on luck to escape losses. Only those who have early grasped the market direction and prepared can retreat unscathed.
So why was Bai able to call out that the higher the price, the more one should short yesterday?
Now that the overall economic environment has been confirmed to be unfavorable, if the market suddenly rises sharply in this situation, but there is no sustained buying support behind it, then this is likely a tactic by the main funds to attract everyone into the market, just to increase trading volume. Last night when the price rose, market trading activity was actually not high; the main funds wanted to create a false signal that the price was about to break upwards, luring those who were leveraging to go long. Once these people enter the market, the price can then comfortably drop down.
Now, the price of secondary goods is hovering around 2800, and I must seriously remind everyone again: this is not the bottom, don't think about bottom fishing! The price is stagnant now, just like the air before a storm, making it hard to breathe. Everything is waiting for tonight at 21:30 when the U.S. November CPI data is released. Once this data is out, it will be like dropping a heavy bomb. This is not an ordinary data release; it will directly determine how global capital moves next, and it is a 'great trial' of significant importance.
Regarding tonight's market, I will say one very realistic point: whether the data result is good or bad is not that critical anymore; the key is to see how the market uses this data to create narratives.
If the CPI data is significantly higher than expected, it means inflation has rebounded again: the market will immediately fall into extreme panic. This indicates that the inflation issue is very stubborn, and the Federal Reserve's chances of cutting interest rates are basically gone. The price of secondary goods will plummet like going down a slide; it cannot hold at the 2800 level, and it will fall even worse later.
If the CPI data is significantly lower than expected, it means inflation has clearly cooled: the market will likely surge sharply first. But everyone must remember, this could very well be a trap! Now that the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, money in the market has decreased, and overall liquidity is tightening. In this situation, any price increase due to positive news is likely the main funds taking the opportunity to sell off, in order to find a higher starting point for a larger drop later. This actually provides us with a good opportunity for shorting, with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
So, my core view is very clear:
I have always been bearish on the larger trend ahead, but tonight, whether blindly shorting or blindly going long, it is easy to lose money. The real battle starts from the first reaction of the market after the data is released. Will the price drop straight down, or will it rise first and then crash down? This will be the key battle that determines whether everyone makes money or loses money by the end of the year.
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