Gold Core Price Snapshot

• International: London gold fluctuated between 4322-4343 today; U.S. gold futures around 4340, slightly retreating.

• Domestic: Gold T+D 973, Shanghai gold main contract around 981, Au9999 fluctuating in the 976-978 range.

• Physical: Brand gold jewelry around 1350 (processing fees not included), bank investment gold bars around 990-996.

II. Key Influencing Factors

1. U.S. Dollar and Federal Reserve: The U.S. dollar index rebounded to around 98.48 today, suppressing gold prices; the market is pricing in interest rate cut expectations for March 2026, which remains bullish for gold in the medium term.

2. Central Bank Gold Purchases: Global central banks have net increased holdings for 14 consecutive quarters, with the People's Bank of China continuously increasing positions, providing long-term bottom support.

3. Geopolitics and Capital: The situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine has not significantly escalated, limiting safe-haven buying; gold ETF holdings fluctuated, with short-term profit-taking suppressing gains.

4. Sentiment and Alternative Assets: The VIX is moderate, and Bitcoin's high position has resulted in some capital diversion from gold, amplifying short-term fluctuations.

III. Technical Analysis and Key Levels

• Trend: Daily moving averages are bullish, with gold prices holding above the 100-day EMA, and the bullish structure remains intact.

• Resistance: 4350-4356 (Bollinger Band upper limit), 4381 USD (historical high), 4400 (psychological level).

• Support: 4300 (round number), 4271 (recent low), 4233 (100-day EMA).

• Indicators: RSI is above the midline, not overbought, bullish momentum still exists but upward momentum is slowing.

IV. Trading and Positioning Suggestions

1. Short-term: Buy low and sell high in the 4300-4350 range, setting stop losses at 20-30; if it breaks 4356, can take a light position to chase long, targeting 4380-4400 USD; if it breaks below 4300, reduce positions and watch for a drop to 4270-4230.

2. Medium to Long-term: Build long positions on pullbacks, relying on strong support at 4230 USD, with the core logic being interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve + central bank gold purchases + geopolitical safe-haven, targeting above 4500.

3. Risk Control: Control positions at 30-50%, build positions in batches, set strict stop losses, and avoid volatility caused by data and event impacts.

V. Key Focus for Tomorrow

• U.S. December Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, weekly initial jobless claims data, which may affect the fluctuations of the U.S. dollar and gold prices.

• Continuously monitor the situation in the Middle East, the U.S. dollar index, and ETF capital flows, and be wary of rapid pullbacks triggered by profit-taking at high levels #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作