Tonight at 21:30, every number in the data could lead to bloodshed in the crypto world!
At nine-thirty, the U.S. will announce the core CPI and initial jobless claims data, which are not ordinary economic indicators but rather a "key switch" that directly influences Federal Reserve policy and sways global market trends. In the current high-interest-rate environment, these numbers will determine whether the market continues to bet on "hard landing" risks or strengthens expectations of "no interest rate cuts"; volatility is bound to be extreme.
The core CPI month-on-month rate is expected to remain around 3.1%. If the actual value exceeds expectations and rises, it will confirm persistent inflation, and the market will quickly price in further compression of the Federal Reserve's rate cut space for 2026—leading to a rebound in the dollar index, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and collective pressure on risk assets such as stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, increasing downward pressure. Conversely, if the data unexpectedly falls below expectations, it will ignite optimistic sentiment of "inflation peaking," and traders may reignite hopes for rate cuts, driving a wave of risk appetite recovery that should not be underestimated.
More concerning is the number of initial jobless claims. This leading indicator directly reflects the tightness of the labor market. If the number jumps significantly, it indicates a strengthening signal of economic cooling, and the market may fall into the bizarre logic of "bad data = good outcomes": expecting the Federal Reserve to be forced into more substantial easing earlier. This could temporarily stimulate a reversal in risk assets. However, if employment data remains robust, proving that the economy can withstand high rates, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance of "higher for longer" will be reinforced, which would be purely bearish for high beta assets like cryptocurrencies.
Currently, Wall Street and the crypto world are highly sensitive; any deviation could trigger intense fluctuations. Rationally speaking, the data is merely a catalyst; the essence remains the game of the larger cycle: the tug-of-war between inflation and employment. It is advisable to maintain a light position and observe, with strict risk control, and not to be swayed by a single outcome—the result tonight will directly set the tone for the direction at the beginning of 2026.
