12.18 US CPI is coming, the moment to set the tone for gold market!

Tonight at 21:30, the US November CPI will be released, with core expectations year-on-year at 3.1%, previous value at 3.0%, and core CPI expected at 3.0%. Due to the government shutdown, there will be no month-on-month data this time, and the inherent bias in the data is significant, which will amplify market volatility.

Based on the data performance, the gold trend can be divided into three scenarios, with an overall bearish core theme: In a high-probability bearish scenario, a year-on-year CPI ≥3.1% means rising inflation, which will quickly dampen expectations for Fed rate cuts, leading to a simultaneous rise in US Treasury yields and the dollar, with gold likely breaking below 4300, targeting 4270; in a medium-probability bearish scenario, the year-on-year CPI is in the 3.0%-3.1% range, the stickiness of inflation will extinguish dovish expectations, and profit-taking by bulls will lead to a concentrated sell-off, with gold likely peaking at 4345 before retreating; in a low-probability bullish scenario, a year-on-year CPI <3.0% will boost expectations for rate cuts, and gold prices are expected to challenge 4380, but due to the inherent flaws in the data, the increase may be difficult to sustain.

In terms of trading, it is recommended to hold positions and observe before the CPI release. If the data confirms bearish, one can directly follow the short position. If it breaks below 4300, increase positions decisively, while being vigilant against false breakout risks during operations to avoid pitfalls. $BTC $BNB $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #美国讨论BTC战略储备