The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI data for November 2025 at 8:30 AM (Eastern Time) on December 18, 2025. This is the first inflation report since the federal government shutdown lasting 43 days caused the interruption of data collection in October and the cancellation of the October CPI report. Due to the lack of an October baseline, this report does not provide month-over-month (MoM) changes for November but only year-over-year (YoY) data and other sub-indices.

Core CPI significantly below expectations

Data indicates that the overall CPI rose by 2.7% YoY, lower than the market expectation of 3.0%-3.1% and also below the previous value (September) of 3.0%. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by only 2.6% YoY, far below the expected 3.0%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021, with the previous value being 3.0%.

In terms of components, the approximately 4.2% YoY increase in energy prices was the main factor dragging down the overall CPI, but core inflation has clearly slowed, indicating that price pressures outside of food and housing are stabilizing. Although month-over-month data was not released, some institutions estimate a cumulative increase of about 0.2% from October to November, indicating very mild short-term inflation. This report shows that U.S. inflation pressures unexpectedly cooled, with core inflation reaching a recent low, reflecting the lagging effects of the Federal Reserve's previous tightening policies. Overall, this helps to alleviate the burden on consumers and further solidify expectations for a soft landing in the economy, though there are still upward risks regarding energy and service prices, and inflation remains distant from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Cryptocurrency market reacts first

After the CPI data was released, before the U.S. stock market opened, the cryptocurrency market quickly responded positively: Bitcoin briefly rose, surpassing $89,000, and as of the time of writing, it is priced at $89,030; Ethereum also rose, approaching the $3,000 mark, currently quoted at $2,990.

Probability of Fed rate cut in January still low

Despite the data being dovish, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut in January next year did not significantly warm up after the CPI was released, and it is still generally believed that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate at the next meeting.

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