Tensions have once again surfaced in the Middle East, yet gold is not rising this time—it’s actually falling. The old script from the past couple of years is being read in reverse.
At 23:00 Beijing time on June 28, a roundup from Jintong Zhou mentioned that, according to reports, Iran’s side saw missile and drone strikes, accompanied by threats to control the Strait of Hormuz. In the past, geopolitics like this were almost always a buy signal for gold; but this round, the market is doing a different calculation. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, the risk premium in oil prices rises, inflation expectations get reignited, and that in turn suppresses demand for gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Put simply, what people fear now isn’t the war itself—it’s oil prices surging and wiping out rate-cut expectations in one blow. $XAU is slightly under pressure in the short term, so don’t keep using “geopolitical conflict” as a mindless excuse to go long.
Next, watch two things: how oil prices react, and whether U.S. Treasury yields will continue to climb—these are the true judges that will determine the direction of gold this time.
If the Middle East headlines keep escalating, do you think gold prices will recover the safe-haven logic, or will they continue to be led by oil prices and interest rates?
#黄金
At 23:00 Beijing time on June 28, a roundup from Jintong Zhou mentioned that, according to reports, Iran’s side saw missile and drone strikes, accompanied by threats to control the Strait of Hormuz. In the past, geopolitics like this were almost always a buy signal for gold; but this round, the market is doing a different calculation. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, the risk premium in oil prices rises, inflation expectations get reignited, and that in turn suppresses demand for gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Put simply, what people fear now isn’t the war itself—it’s oil prices surging and wiping out rate-cut expectations in one blow. $XAU is slightly under pressure in the short term, so don’t keep using “geopolitical conflict” as a mindless excuse to go long.
Next, watch two things: how oil prices react, and whether U.S. Treasury yields will continue to climb—these are the true judges that will determine the direction of gold this time.
If the Middle East headlines keep escalating, do you think gold prices will recover the safe-haven logic, or will they continue to be led by oil prices and interest rates?
#黄金