$CAKE The main force has withdrawn Waiting for the bottom to be built
I. Overall Trend Judgment (Core)
The price is currently retracing within the long-term oscillation center of $1.50 - $1.80. This is a very critical area where CAKE has previously gained support and started multiple times. The current candlestick pattern is weak, showing a tendency of continuous decline, indicating that the selling pressure from trapped positions above remains heavy, and the bulls' confidence has not yet recovered.
The mid-term trend of CAKE is bearish. It is currently in the latter half of the “value return” phase, looking for a new balance point. Although the price seems to have returned to the low before the rise, there are no clear signals of stopping the decline, and there is still a risk of inertia falling.
II. Key Price Levels
Resistance Level (Selling Pressure Area):
Short Resistance: $2.20 - $2.30. The rebound resistance area during the recent decline; if it rebounds here, short-term trapped funds will be eager to exit.
Strong Resistance: $2.50 - $2.80. The neckline area of the “M head.” Unless there is significant positive news, it will be difficult to surpass in the short term.
Support Level (Defense Area):
Lifeline: $1.50 - $1.60. The lowest point area of the terrifying long lower shadow line. If it breaks below this, it means CAKE will test the bottom again at $1.00 - $1.20.
Current Support: $1.75 - $1.80. The current consolidation position, where the bulls are trying to build a defense line.
III. Trading Volume Signal
Signal: Increase in volume during rise, decrease in volume during decline.
In October, the trading volume was enormous during the surge, but the volume during the current decline is relatively shrinking.
Interpretation: The main force has exited, and retail investors are deeply trapped. The huge volume released at high levels indicates that the main force has likely finished unloading, and the current shrinking decline is due to retail investors stepping on each other or lying flat.
IV. Trading Strategy
For Holders: Focus on defense.
Having fallen so deep, the cost-effectiveness of cutting losses is not high now.
It is recommended to firmly hold $1.50. If it does not break, patience can be exercised to wait for a rebound; if it effectively breaks below, it is advisable to exit to avoid risk of going to zero.
For Those with No Position: Wait for right-side opportunities.
Do not catch falling knives: the current trend is downward.
Strategy: Pay attention to the performance near $1.50. Only when there is a significant long lower shadow or a large bullish line with increased volume at this position is it an opportunity to build positions on the left side.
Gamble: Take a light position to aim for a rebound from $1.50 to $2.20, with a suitable risk-reward ratio.
V. Summary
CAKE is experiencing a “hangover period.” Before seeing clear signals of bottoming, it's best to watch more and act less!