December 19th Morning Analysis
The latest data released on the U.S. CPI shows that the core inflation rate for November has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years. However, there are widespread doubts within the economic community about the "reliability" of the data: this report seems to have some anomalies. Due to the longest government shutdown in history, the data collection process has been significantly disrupted, and several long-standing high inflation segments—especially the housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI—unexpectedly showed a significant slowdown, with prices in areas such as airline tickets and clothing also experiencing notable declines.
Yesterday, our strategy of positioning long positions at low prices was validated, as the price surged rapidly after the CPI release, with Bitcoin rising by about 3000 points and Ethereum also climbing by over a hundred points. However, due to market skepticism about the authenticity of the inflation data, U.S. stocks retreated, leading to a correction in the crypto market. Unfortunately, we missed our preset short entry point by a small margin and were unable to execute.
On a daily basis, Bitcoin has formed two consecutive bearish candles with long upper shadows, and Ethereum also formed a doji with an upper shadow this morning. Currently, prices are operating near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with the KDJ three lines in a low position, showing a slowdown in the downward momentum. The MACD double lines present a death cross pointing downwards, with volume slightly increasing, indicating an overall weak trend. Although the current trend is weak and downward, there has not been a strong downward breakout, so it is not advisable to be excessively bearish. For today, we can first pay attention to a rebound.
Trading Suggestions
Buy around 84800-84300 on the dip, with targets looking up at 86200-87000, and if it breaks through, continue looking at 88000.
