12.19 XAU Intraday
According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market's bet on a 25 basis point interest rate cut in January 2026 has risen to 28.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March has reached 41.4%. As a result, the US dollar index fell below the 102 mark in early trading, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.1139%, down 3.9 basis points from the previous trading day, providing strong pricing support for gold.
In addition, the global trend of central banks buying gold continues, with the People's Bank of China having increased its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, reaching 74.12 million ounces (approximately 2,305.39 tons) by the end of November 2025, an increase of 30,000 ounces month-on-month; the purchase of 1,420 tons of gold by central banks globally in the first three quarters of 2025 has set a new 73-year high, with 95% of central banks planning to continue increasing their holdings in the next 12 months. The strategic purchase of gold against the backdrop of "de-dollarization" provides medium to long-term support for gold prices. With multiple positive factors resonating, the short-term bearish pressure on gold has fully dissipated, allowing for continued long positions.
Entry point 4297, this is the key support area following the previous rise, and it is also the confluence support level of short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10). After the price pulls back to this range and forms a bullish engulfing candlestick, it is the precise critical point for the bulls to first establish positions under the "high pullback bullish structure".
Add-on point 4282, corresponding to the second confirmation level of a strong support platform, is also the verification range after the previous breakout pullback, and aligns with the MA20 moving average support; if the price briefly dips to this level, it presents a "healthy pullback add-on opportunity under a bullish structure".
Defense 4272, this is the neck line of the recent rise, as well as the upper critical point of the previous oscillation range, coinciding with the strong support of the lower Bollinger Band; if the price effectively breaks below this level, it means that the technical structure of "high pullback bullish" is completely broken, and the core logic for bulls becomes invalid.
(Entry at 4297, add at 4282, defense at 4272, target 4348-4365)
Personal view, not constituting investment advice
