12.19 Gold Strategy Analysis

Expectations for interest rate cuts combined with safe-haven support, grasp structural opportunities amid fluctuations

Currently, this is not a one-sided market, but rather a structural game in high-level fluctuations, where rhythm is more important than direction.

Market Review

Overnight, gold showed significant wide fluctuations, with prices stabilizing and rebounding from around 4308, peaking at 4374 before retracting. It is currently running in the 4310–4330 range, with bulls and bears repeatedly contesting, and overall still operating within a high-level range.

News + Technical Analysis

On the news front, market expectations for interest rate cuts continue to rise, with Trump openly pushing for a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Coupled with the latest inflation data not significantly suppressing easing expectations, the dollar is generally under pressure, providing a floor for gold. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainties remain, and safe-haven sentiment has not noticeably waned, maintaining a generally bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium term.

From a technical perspective, the key support zone is formed by the round number 4300 and the previous low of 4270, while the upper range of 4370–4375 serves as a strong resistance area; the line at 4340 is a dividing line for short-term bulls and bears. If it stabilizes above, it leans towards strong fluctuations; if it falls below, the pressure to retract increases. Attention should be paid to changes in short-term moving averages; if there is a significant volume drop below, the extent of the correction may widen.

Overall, treat with a fluctuation mindset:

If the price stabilizes in the 4320–4330 range, a light position can be attempted for long trades, with an initial target looking for a breakthrough at 4340, subsequently looking at 4375;

If it unexpectedly falls below 4300, then focus on the support reaction at around 4280 before deciding whether to participate.

Disclaimer

The above content is merely a personal trading thought sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks, and entry requires caution; please reasonably control your position and strictly set stop-loss.