Bitcoin failed to challenge the $90,000 level again this week, and the rapid decline has made the market realize that in the current round of 'currency depreciation trade', the assets truly leading the way are still gold and silver, rather than Bitcoin, which is seen as 'digital gold'.
Is the 'Currency Depreciation Trade' Failing?
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $85,800, down over 30% from the historical high set in early October. Meanwhile, gold prices are approaching the historical high of $4,350 per ounce, and silver reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, standing at $66 per ounce, with an increase of over 40% since October.
In October this year, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that gold and Bitcoin would both benefit from the trend of currency devaluation, expecting Bitcoin to follow the upward trend of gold, even giving a target price of up to $165,000 for Bitcoin after adjusting for volatility. However, this assumption has not materialized to date.
Market observations indicate that Bitcoin's short-term performance lagging is related to its high correlation with risk assets. ByteTree founder Charlie Morris stated that although the overall U.S. stock index is still near historical highs, recent declines have mainly concentrated on the riskiest and most speculative sectors, including AI infrastructure, data center investments, and some newly listed stocks, which have indirectly dragged down Bitcoin's performance.
The technical indicators and on-chain data are weakening synchronously.
From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio (BTC/Gold Ratio) peaked at the end of 2024 and has now entered a clear bearish trend, having fallen more than 50% from its high. This ratio formed a 'lower high' in August, indicating weakening momentum, and refreshed a near two-year low this week.
On-chain data also shows that structural selling pressure is accumulating. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins that have been held for over two years have begun to flow again, indicating that long-term holders are continuously reducing their positions. Glassnode's data also shows that the net position changes of long-term investors have turned into significant selling.
Vetle Lunde stated: "This is a persistent, substantial selling pressure coming from long-term holders, not short-term emotional fluctuations."
Gold leads, Bitcoin catches up?
However, some analysts still believe that Bitcoin is only temporarily lagging at this stage. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that historical experience shows that about 100 to 150 trading days after gold peaks, Bitcoin often takes over and rises. The current consolidation seems more like paving the way for a catch-up rally in 2026. Charlie Morris shares the same view:
"I still remain optimistic about silver, but no market will extend indefinitely. As the rally in precious metals slows, Bitcoin is likely to take over as the next main player."
On-chain capital is still accumulating, and the bull market structure has not been broken.
It is worth noting that although the price has fallen nearly 40% from its peak, Bitcoin's 'realized market capitalization' remains at about $1.125 trillion, a historic high, indicating that the actual capital invested in the market has not withdrawn. This metric is calculated based on the price at which each Bitcoin last moved, reflecting real capital inflow rather than speculative price fluctuations.
Glassnode pointed out that the realized market capitalization has continued to rise during this round of correction, only recently entering a stagnation phase, similar to the pattern during the tariff storm in April 2025. At that time, Bitcoin bottomed around $76,000 and then reached new highs. In contrast, during the bear market in 2022, realized market capitalization had significantly declined, indicating a capitulation-style sell-off, a situation that has not yet occurred.
Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch pointed out that Bitcoin may once again break the 'four-year cycle' narrative. He believes that in the context of a resilient global economy, major central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, a steepening yield curve, and liquidity expansion, a weaker dollar environment is very favorable for Bitcoin in the long term.
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