Friends, I am Qi He. Yesterday the market was again full of wailing and gnashing of teeth, with Bitcoin crashing below $85,000 overnight, and the entire cryptocurrency market's valuation shrinking to below $3 trillion. Many people must be feeling anxious: is this a complete collapse, or does it provide an opportunity to jump in?
News: Has the bad news been exhausted? Or is it a continuation of the decline?
The overnight heavy loss news is a typical bearish signal. Market sentiment is definitely panicked. But in cryptocurrency trading, it’s all about expectations; 'what everyone knows as bad news may not actually be bad news.' After the panic selling surged last night and this morning, will the selling pressure temporarily weaken? This gives the bulls a slight opportunity to catch their breath.
Technical aspect: The signals are very contradictory; it’s crucial to focus on one point!
The 4-hour chart clearly shows a downward trend, with the highs getting lower. This indicates that the bears are temporarily in control. I've marked several positions on the chart for you.
Upper ceiling: $89000, which is a strong resistance level. Without significant good news and large capital, it's difficult to break through in one go!
Bull-bear lifeline: $86000, which is a key level on the chart. Keep a close watch here tonight! If it holds, there’s still hope for the bulls; if it doesn’t hold, then it’s dangerous.
Lower floor: $84000, which is a strong support level, and also near the low point hit last night.
What’s most intriguing is the MACD indicator; the white and yellow lines are below the zero axis but have formed a 'golden cross' trend! Although the overall trend is downward, the downward momentum may be weakening in the short term, showing signs of a potential 'bounce' back. It needs price increases and volume cooperation to truly form an effective golden cross; otherwise, it’s a 'false signal', a trap.
What should current players do? Remember Qihe's method:
Contract players: No mindless shorting allowed! The current position is quite awkward. Aggressive players wanting to bet on a rebound can try a small position near the $84000-$85000 support area.
Spot players: If you are a long-term believer and don’t care about this little fluctuation, then continue to hold your coins, ignoring short-term rises and falls. Find me for specific points.@链上绮禾
Qihe's personal opinion:
I think the possibility of a direct violent surge to challenge $89000 tonight is relatively low, as trends and sentiment recovery require time. However, a sharp drop to the $84000 support level also needs new, larger negative news to drive it.
The most likely scenario is that the market will engage in fierce competition around the 'bull-bear lifeline' of $86000! Here it will be pulled back and forth, oscillating. If the MACD golden cross can be confirmed, along with volume, and the price can firmly stay above $86000, then there’s a possibility for an upward oscillation to test higher resistance.
Remember, the more chaotic the news, the more calm you need to be! Want to understand policy trends in real-time? Follow Qihe; tonight in [Qihe Village] I will teach you how to leverage the situation for layout, and players can also win effortlessly! If you’re unclear about specific points, you can follow Qihe, as I will remind friends who have followed me in real time, 24 hours a day.
