Gold once again experienced a roller coaster market, with new highs in sight requiring rational positioning.
Recently, the gold market has been extremely volatile, with yesterday staging a dramatic 'roller coaster' show. The intensity of the market fluctuations has quickened investors' heartbeats. This is due to a combination of multiple factors, including the impact of macro data, the push of market sentiment, and the involvement of precious metals such as silver and platinum, which is worth a deep analysis.
Positive data triggered a rise in gold prices, and the main players had already shown signs of positioning.
Yesterday, the U.S. CPI data fell more than expected, and this positive news directly pushed gold prices close to historical highs. However, just as it was about to touch the peak, gold prices quickly fell back, and such a large fluctuation made many investors exclaim that their hearts were 'pounding'.
In fact, the favorable impact of CPI data had been anticipated early on. On one hand, analyzing economists' predicted data can capture signals of cooling inflation; on the other hand, the speeches of several Federal Reserve officials have clarified that there is a high probability of no upward risk for inflation.
What is more noteworthy is that ahead of the CPI data release, silver and platinum have already surged, which clearly indicates that the main forces have anticipated the favorable CPI data and positioned themselves in advance. In actual operations, this anticipation was utilized, allowing everyone to boldly enter the market when gold was at a low point yesterday morning, and after the evening data release, timely reminders were given to take partial profits near the high points, achieving a good operational rhythm.
Operation strategy under multiple factors consideration, reducing positions to secure profits at high points.
The reason for recommending partial profit-taking when gold surged is the consideration of multiple factors. Firstly, there is the interest rate hike event in Japan on the same day. Although it has little impact on the gold market, potential volatility still needs to be noted. Secondly, next week is the Christmas holiday in the United States, during which market liquidity will decrease. Although gold has the potential to hit historical highs, the probability of directly surging up that night is relatively low; therefore, reducing positions at high points and securing profits is a more prudent choice.
From the current market situation, there are no negative news factors, and the fundamentals are stable. Technically, gold surged and then retreated yesterday but landed exactly on a key support level, so there is no need to panic. It can be asserted that creating a new historical high for gold is just a matter of time, and it won't keep everyone waiting too long.
Silver and platinum need to consolidate and gather strength; a short-term strategy should be applied.
Looking at silver and platinum again, they have already surged earlier, and now they need to consolidate and gather strength. Therefore, for silver and platinum, it is recommended to reduce positions at high points, control the position size, and avoid heavy operations. At this stage, a short-term strategy should be employed, reducing positions at high points and considering entry at low points when the price falls.
The impact of Japan's interest rate hike is limited, and the logic of positioning gold at low points remains unchanged.
The final focus is on today's Bank of Japan interest rate hike, with the market generally expecting a 25 basis points increase, which is entirely within expectations and will not have a significant impact on the market. Unless two extreme situations occur: one is a 50 basis points hike, and the other is that the Governor of the Bank of Japan clearly states at the press conference that there will be a rapid consecutive rate hike; otherwise, this event can be basically ignored.
Overall, for gold, I still maintain the suggestion to boldly enter at low points; new highs are just around the corner. If there are any new changes in the market, they will be synchronized immediately, and I recommend everyone to stay attentive to adjust operational strategies in a timely manner.
