Next Monday marks the start of a brand-new week again, and now everyone’s kind of getting a headache about Mondays. The main reason is that the reactions from the U.S. and Iran over the weekend have put pressure on cryptocurrencies. It’s very possible that before the U.S. stock market opens on Monday, Trump will do the thing known as TACO, and then Iran will act as if nothing happened, and the U.S. stock market will just carry on as usual—doing what it’s supposed to do.
Whether or not this is the script, I think it’s very hard for the U.S. and Iran to fully go to war again, and that doesn’t serve either side’s interests.
Especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz again, I estimate that Europe and Asia won’t just sit by and watch. Of course, this is only my personal opinion. My WTI short, meanwhile, hasn’t even fully worked out yet—because recently longs have been paying shorts funding rates, so holding short positions still feels quite comfortable. Also, I’ve already withdrawn my margin; with more than 200% profit, I’m more than satisfied.
Since I can roughly predict the end result of the U.S. and Iran, what happens on Monday isn’t that important. What I care about most instead is the ATM data for this week published by $MSTR —especially how the ATM is done, and how the post-ATM funds are used: is it more money held as cash reserves, or is it used to buy $BTC ? Like I said—if it’s the former, that would mean MSTR is hunkering down for winter, which is a good thing. If it’s the latter, it would indicate Michael is continuing to stay aggressive.
If it’s the former, I might try buying some MSTR and $STRC. But if it’s the latter, I would only push down my expected buy price for Bitcoin. Another important set of data next week is Thursday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). The current NFP situation is probably back to the stage where both good and bad data are bad data. I don’t know whether risk-off sentiment will emerge.
#btc $BTC
Whether or not this is the script, I think it’s very hard for the U.S. and Iran to fully go to war again, and that doesn’t serve either side’s interests.
Especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz again, I estimate that Europe and Asia won’t just sit by and watch. Of course, this is only my personal opinion. My WTI short, meanwhile, hasn’t even fully worked out yet—because recently longs have been paying shorts funding rates, so holding short positions still feels quite comfortable. Also, I’ve already withdrawn my margin; with more than 200% profit, I’m more than satisfied.
Since I can roughly predict the end result of the U.S. and Iran, what happens on Monday isn’t that important. What I care about most instead is the ATM data for this week published by $MSTR —especially how the ATM is done, and how the post-ATM funds are used: is it more money held as cash reserves, or is it used to buy $BTC ? Like I said—if it’s the former, that would mean MSTR is hunkering down for winter, which is a good thing. If it’s the latter, it would indicate Michael is continuing to stay aggressive.
If it’s the former, I might try buying some MSTR and $STRC. But if it’s the latter, I would only push down my expected buy price for Bitcoin. Another important set of data next week is Thursday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). The current NFP situation is probably back to the stage where both good and bad data are bad data. I don’t know whether risk-off sentiment will emerge.
#btc $BTC