张烁峰的剧本日记

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#加密市场观察

That’s indeed the case. From the data, it’s clearly visible that many retail investors don’t know how to buy AI, or they’re worried that after buying, the price will pull back. So they choose to buy an index instead—and the more it drops, the more they buy. This is because the U.S. stock market, especially the S&P 500 in the long run, has always gone up.

So it seems contradictory: institutional exits versus retail investors chasing the decline. But in reality, both sides’ actions make sense. Institutions are trying to earn more stable returns, while retail investors are going to be bullish on the U.S.

The chart shows the growth of the S&P 500 by year. So buying the S&P 500 index is essentially going long on the U.S.—whether it’s IT, real estate, banks, or AI. As long as something can take off, the index will rise. It may not let you feast on profits the way a single stock can, but you’ll still get solid revenue.#标普500指数 $SPX

Korean Stock Market: Invisible Leverage, Visible Frenzy

The KOSPI index is rising, and the VIX is also staying high—this is a typical high-volatility rally.

On the surface, Korean retail margin balances account for only 0.8% of free-float market cap, so leverage doesn’t seem to be at its limit. But the devil is in the details: the exposure share of leveraged ETFs has surged from 1% last year to around 2.5%-3% today.

With this hidden portion added in, the actual leverage pressure is enormous.

Even worse is the ETFs’ “daily rebalancing” mechanism: add positions when the market rises, cut positions when it falls. It’s essentially like installing an accelerator for the market.

It’s like trading crypto: even if the collateral-based borrowing isn’t fully deployed, you still directly buy a 3x leveraged ETF. It looks calm on the surface, but the position size is extremely heavy.

When it goes up, it rockets; when it falls, it can kill you. That is the root cause of a huge one-day rally and a sharp sell-off the very next day in Korea’s stock market.

In the past two days, I’ve seen a lot of discussion among fellow friends about CRCL. My personal view is still consistent with what it was long ago: if USDC continues to rely on returns from U.S. Treasuries as its primary source of profit, then whether it’s Open USD or Close USD—so long as it’s a stablecoin with opportunities in the payments space—it will hurt USDC’s stock price.

I think this round of CRCL’s drop isn’t solely due to Open USD. No one knows whether Open USD can truly operate in an official, lasting way, but behind the scenes, payment channels are already showing willingness to pay for stablecoins—there are companies and institutions willing to use stablecoins for payments.

The market isn’t buying the idea that CRCL is no good. Instead, it’s that Visa and MasterCard are just too good at doing this. Without saying anything else, just look at how these two stocks have risen over the past couple of days—you can tell. The market doesn’t think Open USD can upend CRCL; it thinks Visa and MasterCard have finally figured it out.

So whether Open USD and all those associations and enterprises can make it work isn’t the key point. What matters is that Visa and MasterCard are willing to step in to do this. As long as they’re willing to participate, it’s still no problem to rally people around a stablecoin scheme.#crcl $CRCL

Today, we’re mainly looking at the data for KOSPI and the KOSPI VIX.

KOSPI is South Korea’s most core benchmark stock index. You can think of it as South Korea’s version of the S&P 500 or the CSI 300, reflecting the overall performance of the country’s major listed companies.

KOSPI VIX is South Korea’s volatility index (similar to the VIX in the US). It mainly reflects the market’s expectations for future volatility of the KOSPI 200. In simple terms, KOSPI represents the price direction, while KOSPI VIX represents the market’s expected level of volatility.

Based on the current data, KOSPI continues to rise, but KOSPI VIX is also sitting at a very high level.

Normally, when an index rises alongside falling volatility, it suggests the market is moving in a more stable environment. But this round in South Korea is different: as the index goes up, volatility is also high. That means prices are rising, but trading swings are being amplified as well.

Looking at it together with the financing data makes it clearer. The outstanding balance of margin financing has reached a historic high, which means the absolute scale of retail margin-borrowing and buying is expanding. Meanwhile, the financing ratio is only about 0.8%, indicating that margin financing, relative to the overall market size, has not yet reached the high-leverage stages seen in previous cycles.

A high KOSPI VIX means that although the market has not been fully dominated by margin financing, volatility has already clearly increased.

So the current state of South Korea’s stock market is like a combination of contradictions:

1. The outstanding balance of margin financing is at a historic high, indicating a high level of capital participation.

2. The financing ratio is at a low level in recent years, meaning leverage pressure has not increased in sync.

3. Both KOSPI and KOSPI VIX are at high levels, indicating that during the rise of the index, market volatility is also rising.

When you look at these three data points together, the core of South Korea’s stock market comes down to this: market heat is increasing, retail margin financing is active, but the leverage share is not at an extreme. The index rally is already accompanied by high volatility, and the market has moved into a higher-volatility phase of rising.

Plainly put: South Korea’s stock market is rising quickly right now, and retail investors are also more积极 about borrowing money to buy stocks—but it’s not yet to the point where everything is propped up purely by margin financing. The truly noticeable change is in volatility: as the index moves upward, market swings are getting larger too, which is why it feels like there are days with big gains followed by days with big drops.

PS: VIX is also called the fear index. The higher the VIX, the more fearful investors’ sentiment is. #比特币回升至6.1万美元上方 $BTC

Friday is a holiday in the US, so the US stock market is closed. Next comes a three-day break. In the past couple of days, the performance of the US stock market hasn’t been great. The main reason is that the semiconductor sector has seen a pullback. The reasons for this were already mentioned in the two pinned posts. Since last week, institutions and hedge funds have started exiting technology stocks. Whoever stepped in afterward is probably mostly retail investors. We’ll need to keep an eye on the data to see whether the trend can continue.

If institutions and hedge funds have re-entered, or if they’re still waiting for a better time—letting the market cool down a bit may not necessarily be a bad thing. Starting in late July, it will be earnings season, so the window for “relaxing” won’t last long. Also, judging from today’s nonfarm payroll data, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, but the number of people employed also declined. Overall, it’s not good data: on the one hand, the probability of the Fed cutting rates has gone down; on the other hand, the US economy also looks somewhat weak.

Of course, labor data isn’t what’s driving the market right now—the key focus is still inflation. Oil prices have stabilized and returned to below $70, which is nearly back to pre-war levels. Within about a month, retail oil prices should also drop. Before the September FOMC meeting, we may be able to see signs of improvement in inflation. Rate hikes in 2026 are very unlikely. But rate cuts will be harder.

Bitcoin’s performance over the past two days has still been pretty good. Even as the US stock market fell $BTC , the price action has remained stable, staying around $60,000. This also supports my view that the $60,000 buying power is strong. As for the dual-currency side, my luck hasn’t been great—when I bought Bitcoin at $59,000, it somehow traded at $60,000. It’s a bit frustrating.

Then on Friday, there’s also a sell order at $62,000. It looks like there’s a risk it could actually get filled. I’ve realized that I really don’t suit selling Bitcoin. Every time I feel like selling, I feel a little uncomfortable. Even though this is still part of the tests I set up in advance, my own core holdings haven’t moved at all.#BTC走势分析 $BTC

July 1: ETH spot ETF total holdings rebound to 5,330,165.98 ETH

Net inflow for the day: 23,118.86 ETH. The single-day inflow is not an extreme outlier within the historical sample—roughly in the top quarter outside the historical inflow range.

However, this week has already turned into a net inflow of 10,883.48 ETH, suggesting that at least in the short term, capital has begun to repair/restore into ETH ETFs.

Still, over the past seven trading days, there has been a net outflow of 116,906.75 ETH, so it cannot yet be said that the trend has fully reversed.#ETH走势分析 $ETH

July 1 BTC spot ETF total holdings drop to 1,204,955.50 units

Net outflow for the day was 4,620.64 BTC; the single-day outflow ranks 48th in the table’s historical data, not the most extreme.

But over the past 7 trading days, the cumulative net outflow has already reached 41,694.38 BTC, and the ongoing selling pressure remains in a very early position in the historical rankings.#BTC走势分析 $BTC

The hottest topic today is undoubtedly OpenUSD. At first, I thought this news might have sent $BTC crashing, but on closer inspection, Bitcoin started falling nearly an hour earlier than the announcement. Combined with tonight’s strong U.S. stock performance, yet BTC inexplicably dropped more than 3% with no clear negative catalyst—it really feels like “a senseless drop.” Still, it’s not bad: the 59,000 dual-currency order I placed today will most likely get filled tomorrow.

It reminds me of something I’ve been emphasizing these past two years: crypto is still in a “rebound phase,” and hasn’t truly entered a reversal. Before, I was constantly teased by friends in that sideways,阴阳怪气 way. Now, though, they’ve changed their tune and even started saying it’s a “bear market.” From a macro perspective, not only hasn’t a reversal happened—there hasn’t even been a “final sell-off” yet. Whether the U.S. economy will actually fall into recession also remains uncertain.

Where BTC might drop next—I can’t give an exact price level, but years of experience tell me this: the more it drops, the more you buy. The big direction is still right. My current average BTC cost is still lower than $MSTR. That’s thanks to my steady accumulation in the past few years. It’s kind of interesting: in 23, I called for buying at 28,000; in 24, I called for buying at 43,000—and I followed through with real money. I’ve held until now.

Back when it was around $100k, I clearly said, “Too expensive—I’m not buying.” But after it fell from $100k, I slowly bought my way back, and ended up buying at 59,000. If it keeps dropping, I’ll keep buying as well. Over these years, about half of the profits I’ve made have been reinvested back into Bitcoin.

Today someone asked: do you still believe in the idea that 2028 is a bull market? My answer remains unchanged—I said as early as 2025 that the target is the end of 2028. All the patience and accumulation right now is essentially stockpiling ammunition for that goal.#阿塞拜疆起草虚拟资产监管法案要求央行牌照 $BTC

June 29 ETH spot ETF total holdings rebound to 5,325,111.49 units

Net inflow for the day was 5,828.99 ETH, ending the pressure from the prior streak of large outflows.

However, over the past 7 trading days in total, there is still a net outflow of 174,580.87 ETH. So this day looks more like a brief rebound after continued selling, and it cannot yet indicate that the capital flow trend has reversed.#ETH走势分析 $ETH

June 29 $BTC Spot ETF Total Holdings Fall to 1,213,122.82 BTC

Net Outflow on the Day: 4,118.13 BTC. Although the daily outflow is lower than the extreme levels on June 25 and June 26.

However, the cumulative net outflow over the past 7 trading days has already reached 36,012.67 BTC, placing it in an early-in-history range of consecutive selling pressure. $BTC
#BTC☀

The start of this new week feels pretty good. As expected, the US has TACO-ed—U.S.-Iran talks are moving forward, the fighting hasn’t escalated, and WTI is back around $70. It looks like the $70 level is holding up pretty firmly—unless Hormuz is completely reopened, it won’t be easy to break below $65 in the near term. So opening a short right now isn’t great in terms of cost-effectiveness.

If WTI can rebound to $75, or if the WTI–Brent spread widens to more than $5, then I’d consider chasing short positions. Otherwise, the near-term risk/reward ratio is relatively low. My capital has already started rotating back into trading BTC with a dual-currency approach. My target is to keep building positions at 59,000; I already bought in batches at $62,000 and $63,000 previously.

I didn’t buy any Bitcoin on MSTR last week, but I’m actually quite satisfied—just as I said last week, the optimal play at this stage is to “hunker down for winter”: pause accumulating BTC, reduce the priority share ATM, use common-share ATM more, and stockpile cash. MSTR has done all of that, so today—including STRC—the preferred share performance has been solid.

There’s no need to worry too much about MSTR blowing up in the short term. Its current cash reserves are enough to cover preferred-share dividends for more than a year. As for selling BTC—selling would be the last resort. If it were to sell, it would most likely do so OTC rather than on the secondary market. And I don’t think it’ll sell urgently. Even though the early positions are in profit, the recent average entry price is still at a loss. Selling at a loss would be interpreted by the market as a negative signal, and it could disrupt common-share ATM. So I’ll wait and see. Overall, today’s new framework for MSTR isn’t a bad thing for the market.#原油重回70美元 $BTC

June 26 ETC spot ETF total holdings fall to 5,319,282.50 ETH

Net outflow on the day was 17,377.69 ETH. The single-day outflow ranks 106th in history. It is not extreme by itself, but this week’s cumulative net outflow has already reached 166,296.05 ETH.

Over the past 7 trading days, net outflow totaled 189,002.47 ETH. The sustained selling pressure is clearly more noteworthy than the daily data. #Ethereum $ETH

June 26 $BTC spot ETF total holdings drop to 1,217,241.00 BTC.

Net outflow on the day was 8,532.84 BTC, the ninth-largest single-day net reduction in history. Although it was weaker than the historical second-largest outflow on June 25, after two consecutive days of large-scale reductions, this week’s cumulative net outflow has expanded to 30,110.49 BTC.

Net outflow over the past 7 trading days totals 32,958.48 BTC, which is already in a top-tier historical range of consecutive selling pressure.#BTC走势分析 $BTC

Next Monday marks the start of a brand-new week again, and now everyone’s kind of getting a headache about Mondays. The main reason is that the reactions from the U.S. and Iran over the weekend have put pressure on cryptocurrencies. It’s very possible that before the U.S. stock market opens on Monday, Trump will do the thing known as TACO, and then Iran will act as if nothing happened, and the U.S. stock market will just carry on as usual—doing what it’s supposed to do.

Whether or not this is the script, I think it’s very hard for the U.S. and Iran to fully go to war again, and that doesn’t serve either side’s interests.

Especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz again, I estimate that Europe and Asia won’t just sit by and watch. Of course, this is only my personal opinion. My WTI short, meanwhile, hasn’t even fully worked out yet—because recently longs have been paying shorts funding rates, so holding short positions still feels quite comfortable. Also, I’ve already withdrawn my margin; with more than 200% profit, I’m more than satisfied.

Since I can roughly predict the end result of the U.S. and Iran, what happens on Monday isn’t that important. What I care about most instead is the ATM data for this week published by $MSTR —especially how the ATM is done, and how the post-ATM funds are used: is it more money held as cash reserves, or is it used to buy $BTC ? Like I said—if it’s the former, that would mean MSTR is hunkering down for winter, which is a good thing. If it’s the latter, it would indicate Michael is continuing to stay aggressive.

If it’s the former, I might try buying some MSTR and $STRC. But if it’s the latter, I would only push down my expected buy price for Bitcoin. Another important set of data next week is Thursday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). The current NFP situation is probably back to the stage where both good and bad data are bad data. I don’t know whether risk-off sentiment will emerge.

#btc $BTC