🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has been implemented
Governor Ueda's "pre-speech", the crypto market is more bullish?
The Bank of Japan officially announced today:
The benchmark interest rate has been raised by 25bp to 0.75% (a new 30-year high).
Next, what really determines the short-term direction is not the "interest rate hike", but—
👉 Will Ueda and his team be more hawkish than the market?
From the current pricing, the market is more likely to show an "upward expectation gap".
📊 First, let's clarify a fact:
Hawkish expectations have already been priced in very fully.
The market has fully digested:
Japan has entered an interest rate hike cycle.
There is a medium-term reversal risk in yen carry trades.
The assumption for Ueda is:
Cautious + data-dependent.
Not easily providing a clear "interest rate hike timetable".
👉 In other words:
The market is now more afraid of "hawks" than "doves".
🔍 Before the press conference, why is the sentiment leaning towards bullish?
① The threshold for Ueda to be "more hawkish than expected" is actually very high.
To truly constitute a bearish signal, he must clearly:
Hint at another rate hike in the first half of 2026 or even earlier.
Or signal a terminal rate significantly above 1.5%.
Or provide a strong policy "bottom line" for the yen.
⚠️ However, based on his past style:
👉 The probability is not high.
② The more likely scenario is:
"No new information" = bearish sentiment is exhausted.
If Ueda:
Emphasizes inflation uncertainty,
Reiterates "gradual, cautious, data-dependent",
Does not provide a clear timetable.
Then the market will interpret it as:
Not more hawkish than expected.
📈 This often corresponds to:
Short-term weakening of the yen,
Risk asset sentiment repairing,
BTC / ETH experiencing a technical rebound before and after the press conference.
③ The current position of the crypto market provides "rebound soil".
Interest rate hikes have been priced in.
Market positions are cautious.
There are no new macro bearish signals in the short term.
👉 Any statement that is "not hawkish enough" may trigger short covering.
💎 Summary of trading logic before the press conference.
This is a typical:
📌 "The worst expectations have been priced in, but the best outcomes have not yet been priced in."
If the speech is relatively mild / neutral,
👉 There is a short-term rebound window in the crypto market.
If the speech is clearly hawkish,
👉 Then it will re-press the market.
👀 Before the speech, focus on these 3 signals:
1️⃣ Whether USD/JPY weakens in advance (funds are betting on "not so hawkish")
2️⃣ Whether BTC stabilizes at key support levels
