Trump and the Bank of Japan's 'reverse operation', will global hot money flood into Bitcoin?
From last night to today, two seemingly unrelated heavyweight messages are quietly moving the global capital's abacus like two invisible hands. The keenly perceptive crypto market may already be on the threshold of a new round of major changes.
On one side, President Trump publicly stated that 'there is almost no inflation at the moment.' This statement is significant; it directly challenges the market's widespread perception of stubborn inflation and opens up the imagination for earlier and faster interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, he is meeting with Federal Reserve Governor Waller, eager to determine the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. A dovish Federal Reserve leadership, coupled with the official tone of 'no inflation', may indicate that the tide of ultra-loose monetary policy has not gone far, and this has always been the core fuel for crypto assets.
On the other side, the Bank of Japan has taken a historic step: raising interest rates by 25 basis points, with rates reaching a thirty-year high. This not only marks a formal shift from Japan's ultra-loose policy that has lasted over a decade but may also trigger a 'century migration' of global arbitrage trading.
For a long time, the cheap yen has been one of the most important sources of international hot money. Now that this source is beginning to tighten, huge carry trade positions are facing liquidation pressure. Where will these funds, measured in trillions of dollars, flow to? Will the highly volatile crypto market become their new destination in search of high returns?
On one side is the expectation that the 'tap' may be turned back on, while on the other side is the violent agitation of the existing pool of funds. The vortex formed by these two forces is placing cryptocurrencies at the eye of the storm. The market's next narrative may no longer be simply about 'halving' or ETFs, but rather the policy turning point of the world's top central banks and the large flow of capital.
The real suspense lies in: when the tightening of the East meets the potential loosening of the West, in this epic battle for funds, will Bitcoin become a safe-haven 'digital gold', or will it act as a high-volatility risk asset? The answer may be hidden in the fluctuations of every subsequent candlestick chart.
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