Family! Is anyone itching to bottom fish today with the market opening? Hold on! Read my analysis before taking action, or you might end up losing your principal! After all, the current market is like 'dancing on a tightrope'; a slight misstep could lead to significant losses. We won't mess around today; let's get straight to the point, breaking down the intraday market trends, risk points, and operational strategies clearly!
1. Intraday core trading framework (my exclusive judgment, directly copying the homework without falling into pitfalls)
First, let's highlight the key points: I am clearly bearish on the current market; don't go against the trend! The specific key positions and operational logic are as follows:
Intraday trading range: The top resistance is around 904, and the bottom support is approximately around 844. I want to remind you that this range is not absolute, but it's highly likely to be the 'main battlefield' for today's price fluctuations. If it exceeds this range, be cautious of extreme market conditions.
Bull-bear dividing line: The position at 873 must be closely monitored! This is the core line for my judgment on the bull-bear reversal. Currently, the probability of the price running below this line is extremely high, and as long as it does not effectively break through, the bearish outlook will not change.
Current status of the trading channel: There is basically no effective support at the moment, and instead, a strong resistance zone has formed in the range of 873~879. Simply put, for the price to move upward, it must first break through this 'ghost gate', which is not easy.
Fibonacci short strategy (dry goods warning): I personally prefer to use a short Fibonacci combined with a DCA strategy to manage positions, suggesting to divide into 6 positions for shorting. I've organized the entry points for everyone: 854 (near the current price, can try with a light position), 863, 869, 875, 882, 894. In terms of leverage, I recommend a progressive approach; the closer you are to the resistance level, the more leverage you can appropriately increase to better control risk; take profit and stop loss should follow the Fibonacci key points, specific adjustments can be made based on your risk tolerance, but don't be too aggressive.
2. Intraday risk interpretation (my risk control factors help you avoid pitfalls)
Having an operational thought is not enough; risks need to be anticipated in advance. I will break down the current risk points for you with my set of 'whale-led risk control factors' (a name I came up with, just needs to be useful):
Technical aspect: I’m giving you the hard data directly; the current technical score is 0! What does this mean? The risk of going long is directly at maximum, equivalent to walking barefoot on nails. I completely do not recommend touching long positions.
Whale holding direction: As of 8 AM today, the whale holding curve has directly 'lifted and soared', and the buying strength in the spot market has been continuously rising. Here I want to remind everyone that although the whale's actions are obvious, it does not mean that the market will reverse; it is more likely a short-term consolidation, so don't get misled by the rhythm.
Macroeconomic liquidity: M2 liquidity has been decreasing, which is a macroeconomic bearish signal, equivalent to the 'water level' in the entire market decreasing, and the market lacks momentum to push upward, which is one of the core reasons I am bearish.
Key support level warning: The data from market makers hasn't changed much; the position at 85 is still a key point that they are protecting with large funds. But here's the key! If this position is lost, the price may fall directly to 80, and that won't be a small correction, so the position at 85 must be closely monitored.
3. My final conclusion & exclusive reminder for fans
Considering all data and signals, my personal judgment is very clear: Today's overall market is still oscillating to the downside, the risk level is similar to yesterday, and the most important reminder is: don't blindly bottom fish! Bottom fishing is not based on feeling; you need to wait for clear counter-trend signals to appear, otherwise, it's just giving money to the market.
Some brothers might say that there are some terms in this analysis that are hard to understand, no worries! Non-professional players can treat it as a learning collection and ponder it slowly. I break down complex market conditions into plain language every day, just to ensure that both newcomers and veterans can understand and avoid pitfalls.
To put it bluntly, in the current market, 'staying alive' is more important than anything else. Managing risk according to my thoughts is much more reliable than blind operations. Brothers who find my analysis useful, hurry up and follow me @帝王说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
