Family, who understands! Just a few days ago, retail investors were cheering for ETH to break 3000+, but then they were smashed down, plummeting from $3030 to around $2800, a 200-point drop. How many people who chased the high are now trapped at the peak? Don't blame the market for being heartless, and don't complain about the main forces being too ruthless. Behind this bloodbath lies the 'dark operations' of macro policies, and the whales have long exited perfectly in sync with the policy rhythm, leaving only retail investors in chaos in the wind!
As an old hand who has been watching the crypto market for eight years, I have long said: the crypto circle has never been a lawless land; the slightest movement in macro policies is a 'settlement signal' for the whales. This time, ETH's roller coaster market perfectly replicated the classic routine of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact,' and the instigator was the Federal Reserve's ambiguous statements.
First, let me break down the ins and outs of this market situation for everyone; it's all valuable information, so take good notes! At the beginning, someone related to the Federal Reserve hinted that 'the job market is weak and there is room for interest rate cuts.' Once this statement came out, the market instantly boiled over, as interest rate cuts mean liquidity easing, and funds will certainly rush towards high-elasticity assets like crypto. Sure enough, ETH was pushed directly to a high of $3030, and at this moment, a group of retail investors acted on the news, fearing they would miss out on a doubling opportunity, rushing in.
So what about the results? The Federal Reserve immediately added, 'We need to lower interest rates moderately,' pouring a bucket of cold water on the market. It's like you thought your boss was going to give a big red envelope, but instead you only received a discount coupon, and your fantasies were shattered in an instant. The whales have long been waiting for this opportunity, selling off crazily amid market panic, directly crashing the prices. This operation allowed the whales to profit greatly, while retail investors ended up as the bag holders; it's all tears.
Some retail investors might ask: why can whales always hit the mark precisely? The core reasons boil down to two points: First, the information gap; whales can capture clues about macro policies in real time, even predicting in advance. Second, they grasp the macro rhythm. They understand the underlying logic behind policy statements and know when to enter the market and when to exit. Meanwhile, we retail investors either find out too late, only to receive signals that it's time to buy, or we don’t understand macro at all, blindly focusing on K-line charts and operating randomly, making it a wonder if we aren’t harvested.
Let's talk about the current environment, which is even more complex! Global central bank policies are practically 'each fighting their own battle,' a complete mess. The news from the Bank of Japan about a hawkish shift means potential tightening of liquidity, which suppresses the entire risk asset market; while the European Central Bank has sent out signals of easing, providing some support to the market. One side is pressing down while the other is supporting, and the market's uncertainty is directly maximized, like walking on a tightrope where any slight wind or movement can cause violent fluctuations.
And about the Federal Reserve restarting its short-term treasury buying plan, many retail investors thought it meant 'massive liquidity' was coming and rushed to buy the dip. Let me give you a piece of advice: don’t be so naive! This operation is only to maintain market liquidity and has not reached the level of full quantitative easing. To put it bluntly, it's just 'small-scale operations,' and it's hard to fundamentally change the market's defensive atmosphere. Trying to rely on this to buy the dip is highly likely to end in disaster.
Finally, here are a few practical suggestions for us retail investors, summarized from my countless pitfalls: First, don't operate blindly away from the macro background. When buying crypto assets now, first look at macro policies and then at the K-line; otherwise, it's like 'blind men touching an elephant.' Second, closely monitor global macroeconomic data, especially the U.S. employment data, inflation data, and the policy trends of the Federal Reserve and the European and Japanese central banks; these are key to determining the market direction. Third, adjust your positions well. Don’t go all in; leave enough buffer space for risks. After all, the current market uncertainty is so high that survival is the most important.
Overall, this wave of ETH volatility is not a coincidence but an inevitable result under macro policy guidance. In the coming period, the macro game will continue, and the fluctuations in the crypto market will not be small. I will continue to track global macro dynamics, dissecting the impact of policies on the crypto market to help everyone avoid pitfalls and find the right rhythm. If you find what I said useful, quickly hit follow @帝王说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
