Family, who understands?! The crypto market had just calmed down for a few days, and a 'sleeping BTC whale that has been dormant for 8 years' suddenly made a big move! Executives from associated platforms directly came out to express bullish sentiments: BTC is expected to touch 106,000 dollars in the short term, and ETH is heading straight for 4,500 dollars! As soon as this news broke, the community was divided into two factions; some shouted, 'Faith recharge successful,' while others cursed, 'It’s already this bad, and you’re still trying to mislead us.' As someone who has been in the crypto industry for ten years, I'll put the conclusion here: this wave of calls is definitely not a momentary whim; it’s all the calculations of big players behind the scenes, but don’t let emotions lead you astray!
Let me give some background to new followers: this giant whale is not a small character, holding 50,000 BTC in the early years, it can be called the "rhythm controller" of the crypto world. The details previously uncovered by BlockBeats illustrate the problem well; its operations always hit key nodes accurately, whether it's the policy shift of the US or related statements from Trump, they can always be in sync with its buying and selling actions. The most classic was the crash on October 11, when they dumped $500 million in short positions a few hours in advance, turning around to make nearly $100 million, scaring the entire market out of its wits; this control ability is indeed top-notch.
But who would have thought, fortunes turn, and now this whale has also fallen into a "bullish crash site," it's almost laughable, just as they enthusiastically laid out ETH and SOL at low prices, the coin price plummeted straight down, directly breaking the cost line, and now their floating loss has rolled to $78.3 million, truly a large-scale crash scene of "buying high and getting trapped." Let me show you this tragic holding:
5x leverage ETH long position, dumped $573 million, cost $3147, now down $66.77 million, a direct loss of 58%, if it drops a bit more, it will be forcibly liquidated at $2150; 5x leverage BTC long position, $85.18 million position, cost $91,500, floating loss of $6.32 million, down 37%; the most outrageous is the SOL's 20x leverage long position, $31.57 million dumped into it, cost $135, direct loss of 292%, floating loss of $5.21 million, this operation is even more aggressive than my cousin who just entered the circle and went all in on leverage, truly unbelievable.
The key point is coming, as a senior analyst, I must share some valuable insights: why are whales losing like this yet still dare to shout bullish? Here we need to use the core logic of big player behavioral economics. First, big players are best at using information asymmetry to create momentum; the market sentiment is already low (previous data showed a surge in negative discussions about mainstream coins), at this moment, coming out to shout a clear target price can easily ignite retail investors' bullish sentiment, and as long as the market warms up slightly, their floating losses can quickly shrink, or even break even. Second, the recent yen interest rate hike has indeed been digested by the market; whales mentioning this are trying to eliminate market worries and find a support point for their bullish statements.
Another key point to note: this whale is a "rhythm master," but that doesn't mean they won't make mistakes. This floating loss shows that even large holders with plenty of chips cannot withstand the overall market volatility. Moreover, this time their call is likely a priority for "self-rescue," after all, their ETH long positions are about to be forcibly liquidated; if they don't stir up some emotion, they might really lose everything. As for whether it can really rise to $106,000 and $4,500, don't just listen to their calls; we need to look at the subsequent on-chain capital movements: if there really is a large amount of capital coming in to support, there might still be some opportunities; if it's just talk without action, then it's a typical "verbal rescue."
Finally, a reminder for everyone: the crypto space has never been a place where you can make money just by listening to news, especially the statements of big players, which are all calculated interests behind them. As retail investors, don't rush in just because a "whale is bullish," and don't feel the market is about to crash just because they are at a loss. My habit is to first track the on-chain address movements of the whales, then combine market liquidity and sentiment indicators for a comprehensive judgment (follow me for detailed tracking methods later).
The market waits for no one, but what is more important than the market is a clear mind. I have been navigating the crypto space for ten years, I have encountered countless pitfalls and avoided many mines, and I will continue to track the movements of this giant whale, breaking down the operational logic for you at the first opportunity, helping you avoid the scythe and find the real turning points in the market. Follow me@帝王说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
