The reason why this interest rate hike in Japan is "beneficial after the landing" is primarily due to:
👉 Uncertainty has disappeared + The strength of the policy is far below the market's worst expectations.
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1. What the market truly fears is not the interest rate hike, but the "suspended interest rate hike"
Before the interest rate hike landed, the market was trading on the worst-case scenario:
• The yen sharply appreciates
• Large-scale unwinding of carry trades
• Global liquidity is withdrawn
But the reality is:
• The interest rate hike is moderate
• The Bank of Japan's stance remains dovish
• Clearly stated that it will not continuously implement aggressive interest rate hikes
This essentially tells the market: it is not a monetary tightening cycle, but a "symbolic exit from ultra-loose monetary policy." Once uncertainty disappears, funds become willing to move.
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2. "The shoe has dropped" = Risk appetite warms up
The positive signals you see now essentially boil down to three points:
1. The yen is not out of control → Carry trades have not collapsed
2. U.S. Treasury yields have not been significantly pushed up → Global liquidity has not been withdrawn
3. Risk assets stabilize or even rebound → This indicates that capital has not left the market
Logically, this falls into the typical category of:
"sell the rumor, buy the fact."
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3. This is actually medium-term friendly for the crypto market
From the perspective of the cryptocurrency circle you are familiar with:
• Japan's interest rate hike ≠ synchronized tightening globally
• The Federal Reserve is still expected to be on a path of rate cuts
• The dominance of liquidity still lies within the dollar system
The result is:
👉 After short-term fluctuations, risk assets are repriced
👉 The market begins to dare to bet on the "next stage story"
This is also why you will see:
After the interest rate hike confirmation, market sentiment is actually more relaxed than before.
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4. One-sentence summary
Japan's interest rate hike is not a benefit in itself, but "moderate rate hike + clearing expectations" is beneficial. The real danger has never been the events that have already occurred, but the unresolved risks.
