Does anyone understand? How many retail investors have been shaken to the core by this recent volatility in the crypto market? On one side, panic selling is causing chaos, while on the other, whales are secretly scooping up bargains. This counterintuitive strategy has turned into a textbook case of 'being greedy when others are fearful'! As someone who has been monitoring on-chain data for 8 years, I must dissect the underlying logic behind these whale strategies today. Why has ETH become so desirable? How can retail investors avoid being chopped down like leeks?
Let's get to the conclusion first: this wave of whales increasing their positions against the trend is not just reckless; it has precisely hit the dual turning points of macroeconomics and market segments! Stop fixating on short-term candlestick charts and unnecessary anxiety. Understanding the operations of whales is key to knowing the true direction of the market.
Let's first talk about the main battlefield, ETH. The recent operations by whales are simply outstanding! Take the well-known '1011 mysterious whale' for example; on the day before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, they went all in, adding 20,000 ETH in a single day while using 5x leverage, which means the scale of their long position directly surpassed 100,000 ETH, valued at over 335 million USD at that time. Now, looking back, this operation has already made a floating profit of 17.05 million USD, with a return rate of 25.45%! I can only say, a big player is a big player; they dare to leverage when the market is most panicked, which either means they have insider information or their judgment on ETH's bottom is spot on.
There is also an anonymous whale who is even more aggressive, synchronously increasing their holdings by 19,000 ETH, bringing their total holdings to over 120,000 ETH, with a market value approaching 400 million USD. The key point is that their liquidation price is as low as 2,234 USD, which means that unless ETH drops below this price, they will make a profit. The signal conveyed by this operation is very clear: in the eyes of whales, ETH is currently at the floor price, and even if it drops further, it won't drop much. In contrast, retail investors tend to cut losses and run at the slightest fluctuation, effectively handing over their blood-soaked chips to the whales; it’s a painful situation.
Looking at BTC, whales have started to 'fall in love with someone new'. The 'BTC OG whale' directly reduced their holdings from 88,000 BTC to 37,000 BTC, pouring several billion USD into ETH. Even more astonishing, during the market crash, they also mortgaged ETH to borrow 220 million USDT, clearly preparing for subsequent operations. I checked their historical performance, and out of the last 7 contract trades, they made a profit in 6, making them a 'precise catcher' at market turning points. What does this indicate? Whales have realized that the era of holding only BTC is over; now is the era of diversified positioning, with ETH being the core target for diversification.
Interestingly, the 'first-generation whale' Owen Gunden cleared out a position of 1.3 billion USD in BTC, but institutions have been increasing their holdings against the trend, with the Bitcoin ETF's shareholding ratio rising to a new high of 40%. This creates an intriguing comparison: individual whales are reducing their BTC holdings and switching to ETH, while institutions are increasing their BTC holdings. The logic behind this is that individual whales pursue short-term gains, while institutions focus more on long-term value. Regardless, the trend of whales shifting from BTC to ETH has become very clear.
Besides ETH, SOL and XRP have also caught the attention of whales. One whale directly withdrew 101,000 SOL from the exchange to a private wallet for long-term staking. At the current price, the total value of the holdings exceeds 84 million USD. This operation indicates that whales are not only positioning themselves in mainstream coins but also in promising second-tier coins. Additionally, due to the rising expectations for an ETF regarding XRP, addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP have increased their holdings by 970 million XRP in the past 30 days, showing clear signs of large capital positioning in advance. However, it should be noted that whether XRP's ETF expectations can materialize is still uncertain, and the whale's positioning might also be short-term speculation, so retail investors should not blindly follow suit.
Lastly, to be practical, although the recent operations of whales seem fierce, they also carry hidden risks. The concentration of ETH holdings among top whales is becoming increasingly high; large holdings in single addresses can provide short-term support to the market, but once a significant market fluctuation occurs, it could trigger a chain liquidation, and retail investors would suffer again. So, a reminder for everyone: in a volatile market, do not blindly follow whales, and do not leverage to bet on the market!
My advice is to combine on-chain capital flow, leverage levels, and the macro environment for comprehensive judgment. The movements of whales can serve as a reference, but should not be the sole basis for operations. If you really don’t know how to operate, it’s better to observe first and save your bullets for critical points.
