Brothers! Last night’s plunge in ETH scared quite a few people, didn’t it? A 3.75% drop in 24 hours, and the price directly slammed down to $2833. People in the group have already started shouting, 'The bear market is coming!' Don’t panic! As someone who has been immersed in the crypto circle for 5 years, I can confidently say: this volatility is not a panic-driven collapse but a scene of institutions 'sneakily picking up bargains' and whales 'shifting big'. Understand these points, and you will stand firm ahead of 90% of retail investors!
Let’s highlight the key points: the biggest contradiction in the current market is the 'firm confidence of institutions' fighting against the 'uncertainty of short-term volatility'. Let’s first peel back the most interesting highlights; this wave of operations from institutions is simply a show of strength!
Familiar old fans know that I have always emphasized that "institutional movements are the barometer of the crypto market," and this time it did not disappoint. The entity BitMine, related to Tom Lee, quietly increased its ETH holdings by 48,049, which is approximately 140 million dollars at the current price! This is not the follow-up operation of small retail investors; institutions are investing real money, essentially recognizing ETH's core position in the blockchain financial ecosystem. In short, they are playing for long-term value, not short-term speculation. My personal judgment is that this round of increased holdings reflects institutional recognition of the current valuation of ETH, and they even believe that now is a "low-position layout window."
Another easily overlooked point: the 6-period RSI has dropped to 21.84! Those who understand technicals know that an RSI below 30 is an oversold signal. The value of 21.84 is equivalent to ETH "crying for help" from a short-term decline that is too severe, making a rebound highly probable. This is also one of the core reasons I do not recommend everyone blindly cutting losses; don't hand over your chips in the most panicked moments, or you will truly become an "institutional exit player" doing the opposite.
Of course, I can't just say nice things without providing the hard facts. I also need to clearly outline the risk points for everyone, after all, we are rational investors, not gamblers.
The first thunder: the large options expiration on December 26! The total amount reaches 3.68 billion dollars, with the maximum pain point at 3,200 dollars. In simple terms, the volatility in the derivatives market will likely be transmitted to the spot market, and the price may experience a wave of "roller coaster". Personally, I believe that the market will be quite volatile before this expiration, so everyone should not chase after prices; those holding coins should hold steady, and those in cash should wait for a correction and stabilization before taking action.
The second pressure: the downward trend has not completely eased. The outflow of funds related to spot products, coupled with the weakening momentum in the derivatives market, makes it difficult for ETH to stand above 3,000 dollars. Additionally, those whales have been very active recently, transferring over 360,000 ETH (about 108 million dollars) and over 610,000 ETH (about 180 million dollars) to new wallets, which is clearly a repositioning. While it may not necessarily mean a market crash, large-scale capital movement will definitely increase volatility, so everyone should pay more attention.
To summarize my views: in the short term, ETH may rebound due to overselling, but due to the impact of option expirations, volatility is a high-probability event; in the long term, institutions continue to increase their holdings, and ETH's core position in the blockchain ecosystem remains unchanged, and the value logic is still there. So there is no need to panic; keep your sights long-term and don't let short-term volatility lead you by the nose.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: the crypto market is never short of volatility; what it lacks is calm analysis and a firm mindset. I will continue to closely monitor the movements of this wave of option expirations and the capital flow of whales. As soon as there is any wind or grass movement, I will synchronize with everyone here immediately. If you think my analysis is reliable, please follow me so you don't get lost@帝王说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
