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Still Extreme Fear 👀

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Since early November, the 30 day SMA of net inflows for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum ETFs has slipped into negative territory and continues to remain there. This ongoing weakness signals reduced engagement from institutional allocators, reflecting a wait and watch approach rather than active positioning. The lack of consistent inflows highlights softer demand at the institutional level, aligning with declining liquidity conditions across the crypto market. Until flows stabilize or turn positive, broader market participation is likely to stay subdued, limiting strong directional moves.

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Still Extreme Fear 👀

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Altcoins are still under heavy pressure. Liquidity is very low and investors are avoiding risk. Since early October, the altcoin market has fallen sharply with Total2 down around 36% and altcoins outside the top 10 down about 46% in just three months. Only about 3% of #altcoins on Binance are trading above their 200 day moving average, showing how weak the market is and how little interest there is right now. Even though this looks negative, such periods often create good opportunities but the weakness may continue if the market stays bearish. A strong recovery, if it comes, will be an important signal to watch.

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As the year comes to a close, derivatives activity around #Bitcoin is increasing. Perpetual futures open interest continues to rise, showing that traders are adding exposure in anticipation of a potential upside move. Glassnode data highlights this growing positioning, which can fuel price action but also brings higher volatility risk if leverage unwinds.

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This short stretch at the turn of the year has historically delivered strong performance. In more than 75% of cases, the final five trading days of December and the first two days of January close higher, with an average gain of about 1.13%.

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