FOLKS Shorting Opportunity: Long Liquidation Risk Triggers Short-Term Downward!
FOLKS (Algorand Ecosystem Governance Token) has recently performed extremely weakly.
The 24-hour perpetual contract trading volume is approximately $22M, with moderate liquidity, but market participants are clearly leaning towards shorting.
In the past 24 hours, long liquidations amounted to $1.35M, far exceeding short liquidations of $0.75M, and long leverage has been washed out.
The top 10 holders control 99.88% of the supply, and high concentration means that the downward space can be enlarged.
Current price is $5.15, with clear shorting opportunities in the short term, and a long-short boundary has formed.
Technical Analysis
All time frame indicators are bearish, typical trend-following short opportunities
1-hour RSI 41.7, neutral; MACD histogram +0.154 shows weak bullish divergence, but price is below EMA20 $5.30 & EMA50 $7.04
4-hour RSI 29.7, deeply oversold; MACD histogram +0.039 close to the zero line, price is at the lower half of the Bollinger Bands
Daily RSI 41.6, neutral; MACD histogram -1.64 strongly bearish
All EMAs are arranged downward, forming a strong resistance band, trend continues to be bearish
Derivatives Market Signals
Funding rate +0.00125%, longs pay short fees every hour
Open interest increased +5.39% in 24h, +9.27% in 4h, new funds continuously shorting
The liquidation heatmap shows long liquidations concentrated at $4.80-5.10, short liquidations sparse at $5.22+ shorting below $4.80 could trigger a chain liquidation of longs, providing ample short-term downward space
Risk Control
4-hour RSI is oversold, there is a risk of a technical rebound
1-hour MACD shows a slight bullish divergence, caution for a short-term rebound
High concentration (top 10 holders account for 99.88%), reserve releases may accelerate the decline, but may also control the price increase
Monitor funding rate & open interest changes; if 4h open interest drops over 15%, reassess the trend
Trading Strategy
Entry: $5.15 (can short in batches at $5.10-5.20)
Target: $4.85 (drop of -5.8%, below long liquidation area)
Stop-loss: $5.45 (rise of +5.8%, 1-hour Bollinger Bands upper band)
Leverage: 3-5 times (medium, balancing return and risk)
Holding period: 24-48h, can take profit early if a rapid drop occurs
✅ First batch 40% position at $5.15, add another 40% at a rebound to $5.25-5.30, extreme $5.40 add 20%
⚠️ 50% position take profit at $4.90, remaining watch for $4.85-4.80 to trigger long liquidation
⚠️ Strictly enforce stop-loss at $5.45, do not resist the position
$FOLKS #加密市场观察
