At the end of the year, the institutional big news exploded! The European old-school digital asset giant CoinShares released a 77-page outlook report for 2026, directly setting the market tone as the 'year of practical success.' They also divided Bitcoin's fate in 2026 into three scenarios—optimistic at $150,000, baseline at $110,000 to $140,000, and bear market dropping to $70,000 to $100,000 [1]. Isn't this like opening a blind box? But I can confidently say that understanding the pitfalls in this wave of 'practical transformation' is the key to whether you can survive and make money next year, rather than just guessing prices!
First, for those who can't understand the long report, let me highlight the key points: 2025 is the turning point for the crypto circle, shifting from 'speculating on air and telling stories' to 'focusing on practicality and implementation,' and this trend will be even stronger in 2026. Simply put, the current crypto circle is no longer looking to overturn traditional finance, but rather to be an 'upgrade package' for traditional finance. With this news coming out, the market is unlikely to experience the wild ups and downs like in previous years. Institutional funds will gradually enter the market, but volatility will test real skills rather than luck.
Here comes the solid advice! The three easiest pitfalls to fall into during this transformation, I’ll explain them clearly for you:
The first pitfall: blindly chasing 'practical altcoins'. Now, various projects are starting to claim 'we have real applications', but if you look at their white papers, they are either rehashing traditional businesses or their technology is not grounded. Remember my iron law: without publicly available on-chain data support, and without substantial cooperation with legitimate institutions, 'practical coins' are all air! CoinShares also mentioned that 2026 is the year of 'practicality winning', not 'winning by shouting practical slogans', so don’t be fooled by marketing copy.
The second pitfall: copying homework to buy stocks of listed companies holding coins. From 2024 to 2025, the amount of coins held by listed companies skyrocketed from 266,000 to 1,048,000. It looks very lively, but there are hidden dangers here. Especially for the leading MSTR, which carries a pile of perpetual debts and needs to spend $680 million in cash flow annually. If future financing doesn’t keep up, there’s a high probability of selling Bitcoin to cash out, which could trigger a chain collapse. Don’t think it’s safe to follow listed companies; when they fall, they can rely on other businesses to compensate, but when you fall, you can only wait in line on the rooftop.
The third pitfall: ignoring the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. CoinShares predicts that the Federal Reserve will gradually lower interest rates to the mid-point of 3% by 2026, but the process will be very slow. Many people may think that interest rate cuts are good news for the crypto market and rush in with full positions. But I want to remind you that slow interest rate cuts mean liquidity will not suddenly flood the market, and it may experience repeated sideways fluctuations; chasing highs will lead to losses! The correct approach is to build positions in batches, not to go all in at once.
Let me share my personal view: 2026 is likely to be 'mainly baseline scenarios, occasionally optimistic scenarios'. The probability of Bitcoin fluctuating between $110,000 and $140,000 is the highest. To reach $150,000, it would require both a soft landing of the global economy and productivity exceeding expectations to trigger both buffs simultaneously, which is not easy. The trigger condition for a bear market scenario is economic recession, so we need to closely monitor the U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI data.
Finally, here’s a practical suggestion: Next year, prioritize allocating to Bitcoin, which has clear value storage properties, and Ethereum, as a leading smart contract platform, can also be allocated in small amounts, but don’t exceed 30% of your position. Try to avoid altcoins, but if you have to, choose projects that already have real income and can provide dividends to token holders, like Hyperliquid and Uniswap, at least they’re not just telling stories to scam money. Remember, in the crypto world of 2026, surviving is more important than making quick money! If you currently feel helpless and confused about trading, and want to learn more about the crypto world and get first-hand cutting-edge information, follow me.
