标哥说币

In the past couple of days, the issue of Japan's interest rate hike has practically twisted the nerves of the entire crypto circle into a knot! Just a few days ago, I discussed with everyone that, logically speaking, this should have a limited short-term impact on market prices—after all, the mainstream digital asset we are focusing on occupies such a small proportion in the global financial market that, to put it bluntly, it can't stir up much of a wave compared to the pearls in our milk tea.
But the slap in the face came faster than the market reversal! When I was reviewing the data yesterday, I was stunned to see the search popularity of the keywords 'Japan interest rate hike' skyrocketing to the peak level of the past decade! It's worth noting that during the three rate hikes in 2024, the market was only symbolically tense, and the search volume didn't even reach a fraction of this time. What does this indicate? The current market sentiment is as sensitive as a frayed cat; even a slight breeze can cause panic. Whether it's seasoned investors or newcomers, everyone is frantically scouring for related news, fearing they might miss a critical signal.

Last night's 'invisible storm' in the crypto circle has quietly brewed. It's not about a sudden surge of a certain coin or some platform causing trouble; rather, it's the 'heavy blow' from the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike—this matter seems unrelated to our trading, yet it may hold the key to the market trends for the next two weeks! Today, we won't deal with fluff or motivational talk; instead, we'll use the most practical insights to clarify this issue for you.
First, let me give some background to our new friends: On December 19, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points. This news has long ceased to be a secret; the market has already chewed over the term 'interest rate hike.' Now, what's truly critical is not 'how much was added,' but whether the market fluctuations last night have already digested everyone's expectations. This is the core factor determining whether we will feast or be beaten in the near future.

The supply of Ethereum on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2015, with only about 8.7% of circulating ETH sitting in exchange wallets. Meanwhile, the situation for Bitcoin is equally astonishing, with over 550,000 coins flowing out of exchange reserves in less than a year.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of U.S. banks officially approving wealth advisors to recommend cryptocurrency ETFs. Coins are becoming scarcer, and money is becoming more abundant; this game of supply and demand imbalance is quietly reaching its climax.

01 Data speaks: The truth revealed by exchange balances

If you are still questioning whether the foundation of this bull market is solid, let the data tell you the answer. The balance of Ethereum on exchanges has plummeted to a decade-low of only 8.7%. What does this mean? Out of every 100 circulating ETH, less than 9 are available on exchanges for sale.

The cryptocurrency market these days is even more thrilling than a roller coaster; one moment you're fantasizing about a breakout, and the next you're being pressed down and rubbed into the ground! Especially with this wave of Ethereum's crash washing out the market, it can be called a 'bloodbath'—whether it's the retail investors chasing the trend or the big players and institutions holding substantial funds, many have been directly hit to the point of questioning their lives, and long positions have fallen like dominoes one after another. At this moment, many people are probably scratching their heads: is the short position about to face the 'liquidation moment'? The market should touch the bottom and rebound for a wave, right? And about yesterday's Ethereum position at 3030, could it really be the ceiling in the short term?

Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 90,000, how many people shouted 'the bull is back'? As a result, within less than two hours, it plummeted to 85,200, making those who chased the rise experience a 'flash freeze mode'. The cruelest truth of the market is: the more spectacular the rebound, the more likely it is just a 'liquidity sweep' trap.

(Insert a complaint: This market is like a scumbag in a relationship—what gives you hope is it, and what leaves you in despair is still it...)
🔥 My core viewpoint:
Currently, it's not a matter of choosing a direction, but rather the final stage of 'leverage strangulation'. Bitcoin has been repeatedly rubbing against the 86,500-87,000 range; on the surface, it appears to be weak oscillation, but in reality, it is digesting three layers of pressure:

When you find that among the top 10 holders of the tokens you hold, 6 are marked as 'suspected phishing addresses'—it feels like attending a high-end cocktail party, and the host quietly tells you, 'Half of the guests here are professional pickpockets...'

(Intermission rant: This ICNT situation is truly surreal, the project team must be crying: We're doing an AI concept, not a scam gang!)
🔥 My core point:
On-chain labels are not a 'conviction document', but a 'risk traffic light'. Wallet platforms label large address holders as 'phishing' usually based on two types of clues:

Recently, a token called ICNT has emerged in the crypto space, and its antics have left people dumbfounded— a certain mainstream wallet has directly labeled all the major holders' addresses with a 'suspected phishing' tag. This reverse labeling is even more outrageous than AI’s blanket approach, creating an absurd feeling that is about to burst off the screen 😂
Let’s talk about how magical this situation is: the major addresses for a normal token are either held by the project team or long-term institutional investors. Even if there are anomalies, it would typically trigger alerts for a few addresses. In the case of ICNT, however, all the major holders were marked as phishing, which effectively sends a clear message to the market that 'the core holding addresses for this token are suspicious.' Don’t think this is just a wallet misjudgment; the logic for marking wallet addresses in the crypto space is quite clear. They are either associated with illicit transactions, have records of deceiving retail investors in bulk, or show abnormal activity (just incoming transactions or frequent small withdrawals). For all major holders to be collectively targeted is definitely not a coincidence; the pitfalls hidden behind this are deeper than you might imagine.

Yesterday, Trump's remarks on national television directly stirred the economic, media, and investment circles into a mess, and even our crypto circle was shaken—after all, the numbers that old man spouted sounded almost like a fairy tale, but when you peel back the surface, what’s hidden inside could be a big opportunity to rewrite the direction of the crypto market!
First, let me give a make-up lesson to friends who missed the live broadcast: Trump bluntly stated, "Thanks to tariffs, we received over $18 trillion in revenue within 10 months," and also dissed Biden by saying, "He hasn't even touched $1 trillion in four years." As soon as these words were spoken, the internet exploded: some said he was talking nonsense, others accused him of data fabrication, and some directly criticized it as "chaotic rhetoric." But as an old hand who has been in the crypto circle for eight years, I must tell everyone: don't be misled by the superficial numbers; when big shots speak, you must dig deeper!

Every time the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, there are always a bunch of people shouting 'the wolf is coming'—but when the wolf really comes, most find they don’t even know what a wolf looks like. History doesn't simply repeat, but the rhythmic cadence can always hurt your positions!

（Insert a comment: Some people shout 'this time is different' while crying 'why is it like this again' after each interest rate hike……）
🔥 My core viewpoint:
Japan's interest rate hike is not a black swan, but a gray rhino—it comes slowly, and yet you always pretend not to see it.

In 2000, the internet bubble: After Japan's interest rate hike, the Nasdaq crashed, and global tech stocks halved.

A reminder for all the veterans in the crypto world: turn off your candlestick charts right now! Stop jumping back and forth over the red and green bars of ETH; if you keep staring, you might be caught off guard by Trump’s wave of “political stand-up comedy” at ten o'clock yesterday morning. As someone who has been in the crypto scene for eight years, I can guarantee this: this is definitely not a routine political performance; it is the first invisible lever that can shake the crypto market in 2025. Those who know the game are quietly adjusting their positions, while only the newcomers are still waiting foolishly for signals of rise and fall.
First, understand a core logic: Trump choosing this golden time to urgently speak is itself unusual. Anyone with eyes knows his recent approval ratings have dropped; this speech at such a critical moment is, to put it bluntly, a “national-level emotional mobilization” — on the surface discussing border control and the economic situation, but underneath it boils down to two things: either tightening policies to withdraw funds or releasing signals to inject liquidity. Remember this, the crypto market has never existed independently; the collective tuning of emotions across the U.S. is the shortest and most explosive fuel for market trends in the crypto world, without exception.

Have you also encountered these 'scam merchants'? — They require you to add their corporate WeChat, only accept red envelopes, refuse to note transfer remarks, and call it 'convenient operation', but in reality, it's a trap for future accountability. By the time you realize the money hasn't arrived, the other party can just say 'voluntarily sent a red envelope' and leave you speechless, and the platform's customer service might judge you lost based on a blurry screenshot.

(Quick rant: These merchants' schemes are more complicated than DeFi contracts, and they have turned the red envelope function into a 'legal money laundering tool'...)
🔥 My core point:
The tricks of unscrupulous merchants change endlessly but remain fundamentally the same: they exploit information asymmetry and payment loopholes to fleece consumers. They often exhibit the following characteristics:

💡 Let's start with a soul-searching question:

When Ethereum keeps 'drawing doors' in the range of $3150-3300, do you think it is building up for a breakthrough, or is the main force quietly unloading? Prices do not lie, but the rhythm can deceive—this recent wave of shrinking volatility has awakened memories of the 'false breakthrough, true burial' script from April 2024.

(A sarcastic remark: The market excels at making the majority 'lose money while thinking they are right,' for example, right now—those who are bullish think it's too slow, while those who are bearish fear a sudden attack, resulting in both sides getting slapped...)
🔥 My core viewpoint:

💡 First, let's hit a pain point:

Have you also experienced moments like this? Feeling like Soros when using 100x leverage, only to realize after a liquidation that you were just a 'retail investor'. In fact, the true culprit of the liquidation is not the market, but your own incomprehensible mathematical formulas!

（A sarcastic remark: The market specializes in treating all sorts of defiance, but the ones it treats the most are the stubborn players who think leverage doesn't cost anything...）
🔥 My core viewpoint:
Leverage is not a bomb; the fuse is buried by you. True big players never fear using high leverage, but they adhere to a formula: real risk = leverage multiplier × position ratio. For example:

💡 First, let's pour some cold water:

Today, a bunch of people saw the news about the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and immediately imagined a scenario of “funds being drained, and a collapse in the crypto market.” But I want to ask: Has the market really not digested this in advance? The short-term emotional dip might actually be an opportunity for long-term players to enter the market.

(A quick aside: Some people shout “vision” during a bull market, but turn into “startled birds” when it dips a little; this mindset is even less calm than the “auntie group” trading stocks next door...)
🔥 My core viewpoint:
The impact of Japan's interest rate hike on the crypto market is not about the action itself, but rather the gap between market expectations and reality. The current rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% seems alarming, but compared to the Federal Reserve's rate cycle, this isn't even considered a “gentle cut.”

💡 First, let's poke a pain point:

Have you often encountered projects like this? The white paper reads like a science fiction novel, but the token model is as simple as a blank sheet of paper—other than 'governance voting', it has nothing to do with actual returns. The result is: the project team makes a fortune from transaction fees, while token holders can only stare blankly.​

Recently, a leading DEX finally started using transaction fees to buy back tokens, and this news surprisingly made it to trending topics, which clearly shows how much the industry craves for 'basic value return'. But to me, this should have been standard practice, not news!​
🔥 My core point:

Brothers, when I scrolled to this message, I sat up straight—I've heard that the developers of the 'noble chain' might be contemplating a 'major surgery': to turn the valve called Gas Limit from the current level of 30 million to a whopping 80 million. This is not just an ordinary version update; it's equivalent to widening a four-lane highway to eight lanes on the spot!

What does this mean? It's time for some solid information:
Imagine that in the future, during peak interaction times, you might not have to watch the 'Pending' spinning in circles anxiously, nor be scared off by 'sky-high tolls'. If this core upgrade lands smoothly, the biggest beneficiaries will be us, the users who are 'running errands' on the chain every day. Transactions and contract interactions will feel like switching from a green train to a high-speed train—fast and relatively smooth.

The saying 'Don't invest in stocks during a bear market, only to suffer in a bull market' applies equally in the crypto space. Many choose to stay inactive during a bear market, even cutting losses and leaving the market, only to watch others make money when the bull market arrives. However, truly smart investors quietly position themselves during a bear market, waiting to capitalize when the bull market comes.
During the bear market of 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 69,000 to 15,000, causing many retail investors to lose everything and exit the market. Meanwhile, I made three key moves during the bear market, and by the time the bull market arrived in 2023, my assets had multiplied fivefold. Today, I’ll share these three moves with you to help you quietly accumulate wealth during a bear market.

In the cryptocurrency world, there is a saying: 'Not your private key, not your assets.' However, many people ignore the secure storage of private keys, leading to theft or loss of assets and ultimately resulting in total loss. I have seen someone save a screenshot of their private key on their phone, and as a result, their phone was stolen and their assets were transferred; I have also seen someone share their private key with a friend, and in the end, it was misused by that friend. These tragedies could have been avoided if only proper security storage for private keys was practiced.
As an old hand in the cryptocurrency space for many years, I have summarized 3 key security storage tips for private keys that have been tested effective and can help you protect your wealth.

In 2025, the integration of AI and cryptocurrency transitioned from conceptual hype to practical architecture, with agent economy and decentralized AI infrastructure becoming industry hotspots. Many projects took advantage of the 'AI + cryptocurrency' trend to engage in wild speculation, leading to dramatic price surges and crashes. A lot of retail investors, seeing others profit, blindly increased their positions, ultimately resulting in significant losses.
A few days ago, a friend told me that he bought a cryptocurrency project claiming to be 'AI intelligent trading,' but after purchasing, the price just kept falling, and now he has already lost 70%. He doesn't know what to do. I helped him look into this project and found that it doesn't have any real AI technology support; it merely uses the concept of 'AI + cryptocurrency' for speculation, which is essentially just a scam coin. Such cases are not uncommon in the integration of AI and cryptocurrency; many projects simply capitalize on the hype without any long-term development plans.

“Web3生态布局”“数字资产配置”“链上价值投资”……是不是觉得这些词汇很高大上？其实在币圈，这些看似专业的“黑话”，很多都是用来包装炒币行为的，背后全是收割散户的套路。随着平台审核机制的加强，币圈的引流话术也在不断进化，从直白的“炒币”变成了更具伪装性的黑话，欺骗性更强。
最常见的套路就是“反向引流”。比如标题是“我劝你不要玩币”“炒币三年，我终于亏光了”，看似是血泪教训的避坑指南，但点开内容，前半部分大谈亏损经历博取共鸣，后半部分却笔锋一转，声称自己找到了“稳赚不赔”的系统或方法，并引导用户关注其主页或加入社群。这种“先抑后扬”的叙事，利用了人们的逆反心理和好奇心，比直接鼓吹更具说服力。
还有一种套路是“跨界伪装”。引流场景从金融领域转向母婴、职场等非金融领域，比如“宝妈靠数字资产配置养活全家”“00后靠Web3布局实现财富自由”等帖子，极大地降低了用户在非投资心态下的防备，实现了“精准打击”。这些帖子的最终目的，都是引导用户进入境外平台、使用邀请码注册，或者加入付费社群，本质上都是为了收割散户。
教大家3招，轻松识别这些黑话套路。
第一，看最终导向。不管帖子开头多么像“劝退帖”或“励志帖”，只要最终引导你下载未知平台、使用邀请码、加入付费社群，就一定是骗局。
第二，警惕“专业词汇堆砌”。如果一篇帖子全是“Web3”“链上生态”等专业词汇，但没有具体的操作方法和数据支撑，只是空喊口号，那很可能是为了包装炒币行为。
第三，不信“暴富神话”。任何声称“零风险”“稳赚不赔”“快速实现财富自由”的说法，都是骗局，币圈没有绝对的盈利，风险和收益永远是并存的。
我个人一直认为，真正的币圈投资，是基于对项目价值的认可，而不是被各种黑话和套路裹挟。如果你曾经被这些黑话套路坑过，或者想了解更多币圈骗局的识别方法，在币圈，守住自己的钱包，比什么都重要！如果当下的你，在交易方面感到无助、迷茫、 想了解更多币圈的相关知识和一手的前沿资讯，关注我@标哥说币
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