Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 90,000, how many people shouted 'the bull is back'? As a result, within less than two hours, it plummeted to 85,200, making those who chased the rise experience a 'flash freeze mode'. The cruelest truth of the market is: the more spectacular the rebound, the more likely it is just a 'liquidity sweep' trap.
(Insert a complaint: This market is like a scumbag in a relationship—what gives you hope is it, and what leaves you in despair is still it...)
🔥 My core viewpoint:
Currently, it's not a matter of choosing a direction, but rather the final stage of 'leverage strangulation'. Bitcoin has been repeatedly rubbing against the 86,500-87,000 range; on the surface, it appears to be weak oscillation, but in reality, it is digesting three layers of pressure:
Long-term holders' selling pressure: 1.6 million bitcoins that have been dormant for over two years have recently awakened for cashing out, equivalent to 140 billion USD of chips flooding into the market;
ETF fund drainage: The institutional side has shifted from net inflow to net outflow, and the buying liquidity is in short supply;
Macro 'hawkish haze' envelops: Expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike + divergence in Fed policy, global liquidity tightening expectations suppress risk assets.
But the most dangerous signal is the technical 'engulfing bearish': each rebound at the daily level is swallowed by a larger bearish candle, indicating that bullish momentum is scattered. The 4-hour chart is even more obvious—the MACD's DIF and DEA repeatedly dead cross below the zero axis, and the price is always pressed by the mid-term trend line at 89,000 USD.
🧐 The secrets revealed by on-chain data:
Whale differentiation: Institutions like MicroStrategy are still buying the dip (buying nearly 1 billion USD in BTC for two consecutive weeks), but more early players are selling to break even near the historical high of 126,000 USD;
Retail investors lying flat: The BTC stock on exchanges has dropped to the lowest level since 2018, indicating that retail investors are either playing dead or leaving the market, with the market being dominated by institutional chips;
The toxic leverage has not cleared: Although 520 million USD in long positions have been liquidated recently, the open interest in derivatives is still high, and the market structure remains weak.
🧭 My operational logic: Use 'grid thinking' instead of 'direction betting'
Short-term strategy:
Key watershed: The upper range of 87800-88000 is a densely packed area of chips, while the lower range of 85500-85000 is the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement level;
Response plan:
If it breaks through 88000 with volume, lightly chase long positions to 89500-90000 (but beware of 'bull traps');
If it breaks below 85000 and the daily line stabilizes, then look down at the range of 83000-80000;
The most taboo is 'betting on direction'—in a volatile market, making money from swings is more solid than guessing trends.
Mid-term layout:
Observe the 'resilience' of the 85000 support: if it can hold and there is a signal of whale accumulation on-chain, build positions in batches;
Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on the 19th: if interest rates are raised but the market drops less than 5%, it may be a signal that bearish sentiment has been fully exhausted.
🌟 Finally, let me say something from the heart:
The market always punishes 'inertia thinking'—those who think 90,000 must break will be slapped in the face, and those who believe 85000 is a hard bottom may also get buried. Real traders should not be entangled in 'long or short' but calculate 'profit and loss ratios'. Before the macro uncertainties (Fed's leadership change, Japan's interest rate hike) land, preserving capital is more important than making profits from volatility.
If you are also fed up with being 'repeatedly harvested' in a volatile market, if you feel helpless and confused in trading, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency and up-to-date information, follow me.@标哥说币
