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The United States will release the non-farm payroll report for November. What makes this report special is that it is not only the first appearance of November data but also includes the revised figures for October—yet it lacks the unemployment rate data for October. This "incomplete beauty" makes the market particularly nervous, as any unexpected news could trigger volatility.

What is the market expecting?
Current mainstream expectations indicate that the U.S. labor market is experiencing significant cooling. The market generally predicts that the number of new jobs in November will be only 40,000 to 50,000, and the unemployment rate may rise from 4.4% in October to 4.5%, reaching the highest level since 2021. More concerning is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently warned that official data may overestimate the number of jobs by about 60,000 each month on average—meaning that if this bias is corrected, actual job growth may have already approached zero or even turned negative.

After more than forty days of data blackout, the U.S. November non-farm payroll report is finally set to be released tonight. This report is highly anticipated not only because it will reveal the true state of the U.S. labor market, but also because it may directly influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy path - and this is closely related to the liquidity expectations in the cryptocurrency market.

Why is this non-farm payroll so critical?
Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have signaled that the unemployment rate may gradually rise, and the labor market is cooling down. Chairman Powell has also publicly stated that the growth of new job positions has clearly slowed down. If tonight's data confirms this trend, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts will inevitably heat up further, which usually benefits the price performance of assets like Bitcoin.

Recently, a political development has garnered considerable attention: Trump publicly stated that if elected again, he plans to nominate former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Prediction markets indicate that the likelihood of this candidate is rapidly increasing. If realized, the impact on the crypto market may be more profound than many expect.

An 'atypical' candidate could bring about changes.
Compared to current Chairman Powell, Warsh's policy tendencies are significantly different. He has conveyed two core ideas in public statements:

Support for interest rate cuts, but advocate for synchronously 'shrinking the balance sheet.' This is akin to opening the faucet while tightening the water reservoir—overall market liquidity may not be as loose as before.

Whenever the market experiences significant volatility, there are always those eager to track the 'whale movements', as if following the big shots could guarantee profits. But the truth may be just the opposite: the so-called signals you see are often the plots that others want you to see. Last night, Bitcoin plummeted, with nearly $600 million liquidated across the network. Are the whales really bottom-fishing? Behind the on-chain data, there is actually a complex chess game of long and short positions being harvested.

The 'trump card' of the whale has never been in the open.
A close observation reveals that during the same period, some whales are aggressively going long while others quietly take profits on short positions, and even some are placing extreme short orders while replenishing positions at low levels. This is not simply a confrontation between long and short, but rather an opportunity to double arbitrage by leveraging capital and information advantages amid volatility. When you think you are following the 'bull army's main force', the other side may have already turned to layout short positions; when you blindly trust the 'bear flag', they may have already quietly exited.

Recently, the trend of $PIPPIN has attracted considerable attention, with prices continuing to rise, even leading to rumors that 'the project party claims to have targeted short sellers.' There are reports of a giant whale being trapped. Market sentiment is hot, with some taking long positions and making substantial profits, while others are curious: how far can this market go?

From my personal observation, this type of trend usually exhibits several characteristics:

Liquidity is relatively weak, and fluctuations can easily be amplified​
The rise of low market cap coins is often driven by short-term capital and sentiment, leading to quick and significant price fluctuations that do not completely follow the overall market logic.

The current panic index may be heralding the start of a carefully planned liquidity test. This is not a collapse of ordinary investors' emotions, but rather a resonance of multiple forces exerting pressure within the same time window. To understand the present, you need to see the logic behind these threefold pressures.

1. Macroeconomic liquidity is tightening.
The chain reaction from the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is far deeper than it appears on the surface. For a long time, the low-cost yen has been an important source of global arbitrage trading. As borrowing costs rise, many leveraged funds are forced to sell risk assets to return cash—naturally, the cryptocurrency market cannot remain unaffected. This scene has played out multiple times in history; it seems more like a reemergence of a pattern rather than an unexpected black swan.

When a well-known analyst publicly stated that "Meme coins are dead," the market's attention naturally turned to those tokens that once enjoyed immense popularity. The price of SHIB has fallen more than 90% from its historical peak, and trading volume has also significantly shrunk; these figures seem to point to the same conclusion. However, if we only stay on the surface, we often miss a more complex truth.

On-chain data tells us a different story: despite the weak prices, the burning rate of SHIB has seen a noticeable increase recently, with the number of daily active addresses even experiencing growth during specific periods. This may indicate that amid widespread pessimism, the core participants of the community have not exited but are instead quietly driving change.

The market is always full of noise, but the real signals often come quietly. Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: in corners that most people have not yet paid attention to, a surge of funds has quietly emerged.

This is not a baseless guess, but hints provided by on-chain data:
🔍 Funding aspect: In the past two weeks, a leading privacy coin has seen a continuous large net inflow, accumulating to nearly $40 million. This structure of inflow, which seeks to build a base rather than a rapid rise, is often not retail behavior.
📈 Form observation: The price has quietly deviated from recent lows and is gradually stabilizing above the short-term momentum line. What is even more noteworthy is that its relative strength index has gently recovered from a low position, showing a trend of "volatility convergence and energy accumulation."

The market suddenly turned, BTC fell back to around 86,000 overnight, and ETH tested the 3000 level again, causing many people's accounts to change color instantly. If you feel anxious at this moment, take a deep breath — because at this very moment as you read this sentence, some 'big players' might be smiling as they pick up the bloody chips.

First, let's look at the data:

BTC's one-day drop exceeded 4%, breaking the short-term support of 85,000, and the short-term sentiment has clearly turned cold.
ETH broke below 3000, RSI entered the oversold zone, and the technical indicators show a panic pattern.
BNB, while also experiencing a pullback, has on-chain data and ecological trends that quietly hide a different story.

Recently, BNB has been testing several key levels repeatedly, and the backend has been bombarded with questions: can we still enter now? Should we buy all at once or wait for a pullback?

Let me tell you a true story. A friend of mine, starting from early 2022, has been consistently exchanging some of his salary for BNB as soon as it arrives, without fail. At that time, people around him laughed at him for being 'stubborn', but over the past two years, his position not only withstood the deep bear market but also accumulated a substantial profit cushion. In his words: 'I have a particularly good mindset now; I’m happy when it rises, and I just buy more when it falls, since my costs have already been averaged out by time.'
The insight this story gives me is: for assets like BNB, don't always think about 'trading'; you need to learn to 'nurture' them.

Recently, many friends have been asking: How much BNB has been burned this quarter? When will the total supply be reduced to 100 million? As an old player who has been following the BNB ecosystem since the early days, today I won't refer to the white paper, but I'll use the simplest language to help you calculate this 'deflation account'.

First, let's look at the current situation: From the initial 200 million to about 137.7 million currently in circulation, BNB has accumulated over 62 million burned. Looking at 2025, approximately 1.5 million will be burned each quarter, which adds up to about 6 million per year. At this rate, to burn the remaining 37.7 million, won't we have to wait until 2032?

I came across news this morning that Alpha is soon going to launch a small exchange function, expected to be implemented within a month. Many friends have come to ask me: Does this finally solve a pain point? Does it mean that the participation threshold for ordinary users will be greatly lowered?

To be honest, as a veteran player who has experienced 'gas fees being higher than the transfer amount', I think this is indeed a significant improvement in terms of experience—especially for friends who operate frequently and don’t have large sums of money, as they can allocate their positions more flexibly without being discouraged by high transaction fees.
As for whether there are rewards for making suggestions? As far as I know, many projects actually have incentive plans, and if your idea is adopted, there can occasionally be pleasant surprises. However, the key point is that—a project willing to listen to user feedback and continuously optimize is often more worthy of long-term attention.

Just saw the news, the platform has suddenly delisted several popular leveraged trading pairs including DOT. This seems like a normal adjustment, but experienced players know—under the current market conditions, it’s like pouring a bucket of ice water on the heated altcoin leverage.
Many people are asking: is a big drop coming? Should I sell my coins?
As an old player who has experienced several cycles, let me say this: this is actually a clear sign of risk reduction. Recently, the market has been extremely volatile, with liquidation data looking grim, and many retail investors have already lost their temper due to high leverage. At this time, reducing related trading pairs is like directly removing the 'oxygen' for short-term speculation on these coins.

As an old-timer who has been through the ups and downs of the crypto world for many years, today I won't say formalities, just some heartfelt advice—it's not about who makes money the fastest in a bear market, but about who survives the best. The following three points are experiences I've bought with real money, and I hope they can help you avoid detours.

1. Don't rush to 'pick up bargains', the bear market is still long.
I know, watching many cryptocurrencies drop by 80-90% from their highs makes many people itch to think 'there's gold everywhere'. But wake up, my friend, the bear market is often longer and more grueling than you imagine. Those lesser-known altcoins, no matter how cheap, shouldn't be touched! I've seen too many people rush in with the mindset of 'what if it doubles', only to end up either getting 'chopped' or the project disappearing, leaving their holdings as mere digital souvenirs. In a bear market, surviving is more important than anything else, don't let speculative mentality become a shortcut to zero.

Three years ago, I thought trading was a game for the brave. While others used 10x leverage, I dared to use 50x; while others set a 5% stop loss, I directly pulled it to 20% pretending to have a 'big picture'. The result? I just paid an expensive 'cognitive tax' to the market.

Today, what I want to talk to you about is not how to 'step on the gas', but how to step on the brakes. These four life-saving actions are more important than the steering wheel, and I have exchanged them for real money.

Iron rule one: Position size is your 'lifeboat', not a 'bet'.

We always fantasize: 'If this time is right, I will turn my life around.'

At three in the morning, the K-line on the screen suddenly stopped like an electrocardiogram. The coin referred to by group friends as 'thousand times base' began its free fall 13 minutes after the major cooperation announcement was made. My palms were sweating as I held my position, and the passionate calls of 'the teacher' echoed repeatedly in my mind during the day: 'The good news has landed, takeoff is imminent!'

That was the second year I entered the circle, a lesson bought with two months' salary, cold as iron.
Later, I realized that those glamorous meetings, splendid upgrade announcements, and stunning strategic partnerships are often just stories told to the market. And you are part of that story.

In the late night of November 7, 2022, a 'Contract God' with hundreds of thousands of followers posted a profit screenshot in the community — he had a heavily leveraged long position near ETH 8900 dollars, with dazzling floating profits. The comments section was filled with celebration.

As for me, I silently opened a 10x short position at the same spot. When my finger pressed the confirm button, a cold thought flashed through my mind: how many people would have to pay the price for his screenshot this time?
24 hours later, the news of FTX halting withdrawals hit like thunder. ETH plummeted. I closed my position at 1200 dollars, with an amount that many people would find hard to save in a lifetime appearing in my account.

On a rainy night five years ago, I found him in a corner of an internet cafe in the urban village. The light from the screen reflected his sunken cheeks, and beside him were empty bottles and instant noodle boxes. At eighteen, after the sudden death of his parents, he was thrown into the abyss of life. His studies halted, his future collapsed, he disconnected from the world with games and alcohol.

I took his wine glass and said, 'Learn trading from me, but the goal is not to make money, it's to learn to survive first.'
He did not refute, his eyes showed no fluctuation, just silently followed me away. At that time, I did not know that this decision would be like a seed, growing a new tree in the ruins.

At three in the morning, the cold light of my phone screen reflected on my face—yet another margin call reminder, with my account nearly at zero. It was the winter of 2017, and I squatted next to the heater in my rented room, for the first time doubting my ten years of perseverance.

And the day before yesterday, that reader who followed me to learn trading and had only 2400U left, sent me a screenshot of his account: 38,000U. Note only had one sentence: 'Brother, I executed the three rules you taught for 900 days.'
Today, I want to set aside all complex technical indicators and have an honest conversation with you using these three simple yet often overlooked 'foolproof methods' that truly changed my trajectory.

A couple of days ago, a friend who has been in the circle for half a year called me late at night, sounding exhausted:

“Bro, I study candlestick charts until midnight every day, trading back and forth based on news, how have I still lost 30% after three months?”
I was silent for a few seconds and asked him: “Do you know that in this market, those who truly make sustained profits often use the 'dumbest' methods?”
Today, I want to share with you three 'never do' rules and six simple phrases that can make short-term trading easier. These methods are not exciting or flashy, but they might just be what you have been looking for, the system that allows you to sleep well at night.