CRYPTO MECHANIC

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A lot of people are waiting for the Fed meeting, expecting that an interest rate cut will pump the market. That can happen, but there’s no need to be overly confident about it. Rate cuts are generally bullish for traditional markets, and you can clearly see that from how US stocks and Gold have been performing. However, crypto hasn’t shown any meaningful reaction despite two rate cuts in the last two months, the crypto market didn’t benefit at all.

Hopefully this time we’ll see some movement. Most of the news is usually priced in anyway, because everyone already has an idea of what the outcome will be. For now, crypto remains range bound with over all bearish trend.
Maybe next week will finally give us some directional play. The interest rate decision will be announced on December 11th, so let’s see how the market responds this time.

I personally think best trade opportunity will come when the market will show some strength and preferably shift the short term trend. Not any news event.

$ASTER been down since I made an update on it.
Price still looks weak, it retested the same zone but got rejected.
I think more downside is likely as long as price doesn’t reclaim the 1.13 zone.

I don't know why this scam pumped, but every time it pumped out of nowhere, it was just to grab some more liquidity before going lower.

Overall if we look at the weekly, The trend remains bearish as the price is still trading below $98k-100k zone.

This week took the low of the last week and high as well. I will share more details tomorrow after weekly close like i always do.

When priced dropped to $80k we predicted the bounce and i also said V shape recoveries are rare and so far price didn't do anything as such. We got the bounce but over all its just a wide range.
Things are pretty clear right now in terms of important zones.
Important support to hold $85k (mid range) and $80k range lows.
Important high to break $93500

I think the next buy opportunity will come above $93500, Trading within the range isn't something every trader can do.

Trading is a game of probabilities, not predictions.

To survive and grow in this market, you have to think probabilistically every single time you make a decision.

It’s always a game of “if this, then that.”
When price approaches a level, there are only a few things that can happen:

- Price can respect the level as support , maybe you want to long it.

- Or it can break below and flip it into resistance, maybe you want to short it or expect downside as long as price stays under that level.
That’s it. These are the scenarios you prepare for.

Now, there will always be people who say, “Bro, you’re just saying it’ll go up or down.”
Ignore them. They don’t understand the market, they don’t understand risk, and most of the time they’re losing money and need to project that frustration somewhere. They’re not your competition, they’re noise.

You’re here to make money.
And to make money, you must consider every possible outcome and prepare for each one.

A real trader thinks like this:

If this happens, I will do this.
If that happens, I will do that.

You simply lay out the probabilities, judge which scenario is more likely, and then manage your risk according to your plan.

That’s trading.
Not guessing.
Not gambling.

Just probabilities, preparation, and execution.

Have you ever thought about leaving crypto and moving to stocks or gold?

Everything is green. Stocks, gold, etc

Bitcoin down 4% 🤦🏼‍♂️

We got the $93K weakness right on time.

If there is some more juice left in this bounce, i think $BTC should find some support around this zone.

$BTC Got rejected from $93k ✅
Tapped $90k ✅

Lets see what the weekend brings.

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Still feels unreal and it wouldn’t have been possible without all of your support.
Grateful for every one of you who’s been part of this journey.

Onwards and upwards 🚀

Have a Blessed Friday everyone ❤️

BTC rejecting from $93K isnt really good. If you’re planning to go long i think it would be better once price breaks this zone with volume.
As long as it’s below this zone Price can rotate lower again. current LTF support is sitting under/around $90k if we see a pullback.

A higher low only gets confirmed after price creates a higher high. What you’re seeing right now isn’t a confirmed HL it’s just a structure within a larger structure. These micro-structures are useful, but mainly for trading lower timeframes.

Also remember, this is just one trading strategy. When price behaves the way you highlighted, that’s exactly where fake-outs come into play something I’ve talked about many times. Markets love to trap early breakout traders before showing the real move.

When you’re trading, it’s always better to combine multiple styles or confluences. It gives you a clearer picture of what the market is trying to communicate and keeps you flexible. The moment the market gives new information, your bias should be able to shift with it and that’s what separates reactive traders from proactive ones.

$BTC is back at the $93k zone, from where we previously had three dives down.

I want to see price continue to show strength and move away from this zone.

I think $98k–100k is a major high-timeframe level. Price needs to reclaim that before we can aim for bigger targets this is where the weekly flipped.

As long as price remains below this zone, we can just continue taking level to level trades like we’ve been doing for the last two weeks.

No trend lasts forever and this is where people lose most amount of their money.
If people are bearish and the trend shifts to bullish they do not accept it and keep shorting the market.
And if people are bullish and the trend shifts they don't accept it and keep buying the dips.

Lets discuss when market shifts a Bullish Trend

when the market breaks a bullish trend you will see it will break below the higher low. Once price does that you can shift your bias from being bullish and wait unless if you get another bullish confirmation.
Some people like to take profits on their buys as trend breaks or some people like to open shorts depending on the type of traders they are and depending on how they want to trade.

Picture 2 is a live example of price breaking a trend.

It shows the most recent Bitcoin price action when it broke its bullish trend and notice how Bitcoin has continued to drop ever since.
This is a really good strategy you can use as a trend trader and as i always say, Trading is easy when you trade where the trend is.

Gm 🫡