2026.6.29 Analysis of Major Coins: The Weekly Close Is Near—Waiting for U.S. Session Direction
Brothers, we’ve reached a key turning point where the weekly and monthly charts intersect. Tonight’s move after the U.S. stock market opens will most likely set the tone for the coming week. Don’t be distracted by the narrow, choppy consolidation of the Asian session—the real contest is in the evening.
1. BTC (Big Pie): Converging at the End—Waiting for the Wind
Right now, at the daily chart level, price is in the late stage of a converging triangle, repeatedly testing key moving-average supports. The main question isn’t bullish or bearish—it’s whether there will be a volume-backed breakout after the U.S. stocks open tonight, or a false breakout followed by a pullback.
Watch on-chain data closely: if giant whales keep depositing into exchanges, be cautious about a weekly-level retracement; if the BTC available on exchanges continues to decline, that indicates strong spot buying pressure, making the breakout more credible.
2. ETH (Ethereum): The Exchange Rate Is the Key—Does the Upgrade Narrative Still Exist?
ETH’s biggest issue right now isn’t the price—it’s the ETH/BTC exchange rate. As long as the exchange rate can’t rise, Ethereum will always underperform BTC.
Technically, if it still can’t effectively break and hold above the $3,600 resistance level for a long time, it will likely fall into a slow, downward grind. But don’t forget: after the Cancun upgrade, the L2 ecosystem and potential ETF inflows remain the biggest mid-to-long-term expectation gap. Short-term traders should watch the turning point in the exchange rate—when it rises, ETH will truly strengthen.
3. SOL and BNB: Each Plays Its Own Rhythm
SOL is currently deeply tied to on-chain Meme hype, with extremely high volatility. If you see a bearish divergence / top-divergence signal at elevated levels, don’t chase—wait for a pullback to stabilize for a safer entry. BNB, on the other hand, follows the Launchpad rhythm. As long as new-coin mining keeps going, BNB has independent support and is a defensive positioning in a range-bound market.
4. Trading Reminders: Two Key Signals
1) Market turns right at the U.S. open: Recently, BTC and the Nasdaq have been highly correlated. If tech stocks are strong, BTC follows up; if tech stocks are weak, BTC gets dragged. At 9:30 p.m., check the chart on time.
2) Don’t over-allocate in low-volume markets: Liquidity is lower during the Asian session, and lower-timeframe K-lines can easily lure traders with fake moves. For large position trades, you must wait for the U.S. session to build volume and confirm direction.
Lastly, one more thing:
This isn’t the time to bet on direction—it’s time to wait for direction. Pay special attention to whether the funding rate is too high. If the rate is too hot, it means crowded contract longs—be careful of longs getting liquidated and causing a stampede. If the funding rate is cold or even negative, it’s actually an opportunity to buy in batches at lower levels.
Brothers, we’ve reached a key turning point where the weekly and monthly charts intersect. Tonight’s move after the U.S. stock market opens will most likely set the tone for the coming week. Don’t be distracted by the narrow, choppy consolidation of the Asian session—the real contest is in the evening.
1. BTC (Big Pie): Converging at the End—Waiting for the Wind
Right now, at the daily chart level, price is in the late stage of a converging triangle, repeatedly testing key moving-average supports. The main question isn’t bullish or bearish—it’s whether there will be a volume-backed breakout after the U.S. stocks open tonight, or a false breakout followed by a pullback.
Watch on-chain data closely: if giant whales keep depositing into exchanges, be cautious about a weekly-level retracement; if the BTC available on exchanges continues to decline, that indicates strong spot buying pressure, making the breakout more credible.
2. ETH (Ethereum): The Exchange Rate Is the Key—Does the Upgrade Narrative Still Exist?
ETH’s biggest issue right now isn’t the price—it’s the ETH/BTC exchange rate. As long as the exchange rate can’t rise, Ethereum will always underperform BTC.
Technically, if it still can’t effectively break and hold above the $3,600 resistance level for a long time, it will likely fall into a slow, downward grind. But don’t forget: after the Cancun upgrade, the L2 ecosystem and potential ETF inflows remain the biggest mid-to-long-term expectation gap. Short-term traders should watch the turning point in the exchange rate—when it rises, ETH will truly strengthen.
3. SOL and BNB: Each Plays Its Own Rhythm
SOL is currently deeply tied to on-chain Meme hype, with extremely high volatility. If you see a bearish divergence / top-divergence signal at elevated levels, don’t chase—wait for a pullback to stabilize for a safer entry. BNB, on the other hand, follows the Launchpad rhythm. As long as new-coin mining keeps going, BNB has independent support and is a defensive positioning in a range-bound market.
4. Trading Reminders: Two Key Signals
1) Market turns right at the U.S. open: Recently, BTC and the Nasdaq have been highly correlated. If tech stocks are strong, BTC follows up; if tech stocks are weak, BTC gets dragged. At 9:30 p.m., check the chart on time.
2) Don’t over-allocate in low-volume markets: Liquidity is lower during the Asian session, and lower-timeframe K-lines can easily lure traders with fake moves. For large position trades, you must wait for the U.S. session to build volume and confirm direction.
Lastly, one more thing:
This isn’t the time to bet on direction—it’s time to wait for direction. Pay special attention to whether the funding rate is too high. If the rate is too hot, it means crowded contract longs—be careful of longs getting liquidated and causing a stampede. If the funding rate is cold or even negative, it’s actually an opportunity to buy in batches at lower levels.