卢总的币圈路

July’s start is unfavorable: the big bet dips below 58,000, what is the market afraid of?

Entering July, the crypto market not only didn’t get a “red-hot start,” it took a blow right to the face. Bitcoin fell below $58,000, and Ethereum also retreated to around $1,560. On the surface it’s a price drop, but underneath it’s a liquidity “drain”:

1️⃣ Macro backdrop shifts: the market starts pricing in a Fed “rate hike” rather than a “cut,” the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets slide across the board.
2️⃣ The biggest bull loses confidence: Strategy hints it may sell coins, breaking the “only buy, never sell” sanctity—seriously damaging the faith layer.
3️⃣ Continued capital outflows: ETFs keep recording net outflows, compounded by near-term selling pressure brought on by the EU MiCA regulation taking effect, leaving the market without sufficient absorption power.

Technically, in terms of market structure, even though BTC is temporarily oversold (RSI near 30) and may see a rebound demand, the trend still leans bearish. ETH is under even heavier pressure due to liquidity contraction, and altcoins are in even more dismal shape. Given the current strategy, defense is better than offense. Waiting for a clear “volume-backed stabilization” signal is more prudent than blindly catching the bottom.

The market is at a critical decision point: oversold structure vs. modest seasonal index rise

As of June 30, the altcoin market has been releasing complex and contradictory signals, overall showing a pattern of “bottoming out over the big cycle while recovering on smaller timeframes.”

1. The long cycle remains deeply sluggish
Altcoins are currently experiencing the second-longest weak cycle since 2020. On Binance, about 84% of tokens’ trading prices have fallen below the 200-day moving average, and this condition has persisted for nearly eight months. The total market cap of altcoins has also surrendered nearly 900 days of gains, returning to the breakout zone seen at the end of 2023, indicating significant pressure on long-term holders.

2. A short-term, structural rebound emerges
Despite macro weakness, short-term data shows a hint of improvement. The altcoin season index has inched up to 51, moving away from Bitcoin’s absolute dominance range. Meanwhile, the 24-hour trading volume of DeFi and stablecoins surged by more than 70%. Derivatives trading volume has also expanded significantly. This typically suggests that short-term volatility will increase and that market funds are searching for direction.

3. Divergence on market direction
Mainstream altcoins are showing severe divergence. Ethereum has found support around $1,550 and rebounded, while Solana is performing strongly (up more than 3% in 24 hours); Dogecoin, TRON, and others continue to decline. The recent rebound is driven more by the spot market rather than by high-leverage futures, which provides some support to the rebound.

Strategy considerations: The current market lacks catalysts for an across-the-board recovery. Key support levels—such as $0.68—are crucial for some altcoins. If these levels break, it could trigger another round of selloff. It’s recommended to watch whether trading volume can continue to expand and whether Bitcoin dominance continues to fall. Risk control remains the top priority.

2026.6.29 Analysis of Major Coins: The Weekly Close Is Near—Waiting for U.S. Session Direction

Brothers, we’ve reached a key turning point where the weekly and monthly charts intersect. Tonight’s move after the U.S. stock market opens will most likely set the tone for the coming week. Don’t be distracted by the narrow, choppy consolidation of the Asian session—the real contest is in the evening.

1. BTC (Big Pie): Converging at the End—Waiting for the Wind

Right now, at the daily chart level, price is in the late stage of a converging triangle, repeatedly testing key moving-average supports. The main question isn’t bullish or bearish—it’s whether there will be a volume-backed breakout after the U.S. stocks open tonight, or a false breakout followed by a pullback.

Watch on-chain data closely: if giant whales keep depositing into exchanges, be cautious about a weekly-level retracement; if the BTC available on exchanges continues to decline, that indicates strong spot buying pressure, making the breakout more credible.

2. ETH (Ethereum): The Exchange Rate Is the Key—Does the Upgrade Narrative Still Exist?

ETH’s biggest issue right now isn’t the price—it’s the ETH/BTC exchange rate. As long as the exchange rate can’t rise, Ethereum will always underperform BTC.

Technically, if it still can’t effectively break and hold above the $3,600 resistance level for a long time, it will likely fall into a slow, downward grind. But don’t forget: after the Cancun upgrade, the L2 ecosystem and potential ETF inflows remain the biggest mid-to-long-term expectation gap. Short-term traders should watch the turning point in the exchange rate—when it rises, ETH will truly strengthen.

3. SOL and BNB: Each Plays Its Own Rhythm

SOL is currently deeply tied to on-chain Meme hype, with extremely high volatility. If you see a bearish divergence / top-divergence signal at elevated levels, don’t chase—wait for a pullback to stabilize for a safer entry. BNB, on the other hand, follows the Launchpad rhythm. As long as new-coin mining keeps going, BNB has independent support and is a defensive positioning in a range-bound market.

4. Trading Reminders: Two Key Signals

1) Market turns right at the U.S. open: Recently, BTC and the Nasdaq have been highly correlated. If tech stocks are strong, BTC follows up; if tech stocks are weak, BTC gets dragged. At 9:30 p.m., check the chart on time.
2) Don’t over-allocate in low-volume markets: Liquidity is lower during the Asian session, and lower-timeframe K-lines can easily lure traders with fake moves. For large position trades, you must wait for the U.S. session to build volume and confirm direction.

Lastly, one more thing:

This isn’t the time to bet on direction—it’s time to wait for direction. Pay special attention to whether the funding rate is too high. If the rate is too hot, it means crowded contract longs—be careful of longs getting liquidated and causing a stampede. If the funding rate is cold or even negative, it’s actually an opportunity to buy in batches at lower levels.

Solana rebounds 14%, but do the data really support it?

SOL bounced from a $64 low to $72, seemingly driven by the tokenized stocks craze—24-hour trading volume exceeded $113 million, and futures positions finally turned positive for the first time. Market sentiment appears to be recovering.

But on-chain data tells a less optimistic story:

· TVL is down 11% over the past month
· Weekly DEX trading volume has crashed from $30 billion to $10 billion
· 30% of DApp revenue comes from a single meme coin launching platform

The tokenized stocks narrative is certainly appealing, but a structural recovery hasn’t been confirmed by the data yet. For now, this looks more like a sentiment correction than a fundamental reversal.

Worth watching, but don’t rush into FOMO.

What do you think about this rebound—short-term sentiment, or the start of a trend reversal?

#SolanaStrong #SOL #加密货币挖矿 coins #链上分析入门

Financial Engineering Can’t Beat Real-World Utility: Ripple CEO Slams Strategy’s Bitcoin Gamble

In a CNBC interview, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse delivered harsh criticism of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) for its Bitcoin financing model. He believes Strategy uses complex financial instruments such as preferred stock issuance to fund BTC purchases—essentially a financial engineering game rather than long-term value creation.

Garlinghouse’s core logic hits the mark: the ultimate value of digital assets should come from real-world application and utility, not leveraged financial maneuvers. He points out that STRC preferred shares issued by Strategy offer an annualized dividend as high as 11.5%, while their recent trading price is discounted by roughly 25% to 26% versus par value. The “no votes” cast by the market with real money undoubtedly raise sharp doubts about the strategy’s sustainability.

Although Garlinghouse remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, he clearly opposes Strategy-style aggressive accumulation paths. He argues that Michael Saylor’s team is headed in the wrong direction—this kind of “gamble” that relies too heavily on capital operations not only amplifies the firm’s own risks, but also, to a certain extent, disrupts broader sentiment in the crypto market.

At its core, this controversy is a clash of two development philosophies: one side believes in “holding is value,” viewing Bitcoin as the ultimate reserve asset and being willing to shoulder high financing costs for it; the other insists on “application is value,” arguing that the industry must return to solving real needs. Strategy’s success or failure may ultimately be validated by the market, but Garlinghouse’s warning reminds us: any financial “magic” detached from utility must, in the end, face the reckoning of reality.

An AI unicorn is born overnight! Mirendil secures $200M seed funding round; led jointly by a16z and Kleiner Perkins

Just moments ago, a major bombshell landed in the AI space—Mirendil announced that it has completed a $200 million seed funding round, co-led by top VCs a16z and Kleiner Perkins, with participation from institutions including NVIDIA.

Even more worth attention is its “dream team” lineup: the founding team brings together 20 researchers and engineers from Anthropic, xAI, Google DeepMind, and OpenAI.

What is Mirendil going to do? Not another big-model chat robot—it aims to build a system that can autonomously conduct AI research and development. Its goal is to train specialized models with cutting-edge R&D capabilities, and to build products around them so the system can independently iterate on research and engineering problems, continuously evolving without human intervention.

This is not just a piece of funding news—it’s more like a roadmap declaration for “AI doing its own research.” With both capital and technical brains behind it, the day we get “AI researchers” may be closer than we think.

[Major News] South Korea officially announces: Tokenized securities are officially included in the capital market reform framework, with full rollout scheduled for February 2027!

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea recently announced that the infrastructure for tokenized securities has been formally incorporated into the capital market modernization reform plan. This is not an isolated technical experiment, but a crucial step toward systematically reshaping the traditional capital markets, using blockchain as the cornerstone.

🏛️ Key Milestones at a Glance

· Legislative groundwork first: In January this year, the South Korean National Assembly passed related amendments, formally recognizing blockchain distributed ledgers as a legitimate securities registration system, paving the legal path for the issuance and trading of tokenized securities.
· Coordinated reforms: Tokenized securities are being advanced in parallel with reforms such as shortening settlement cycles, extending trading hours, and expanding AI applications, aiming to build a “real-time, continuously open, highly digitized integrated market.”
· Infrastructure deployment: Samsung SDS has secured a contract with a South Korean securities depository institution to build a management platform that connects existing electronic securities accounts with blockchain data, targeting simultaneous go-live in February 2027.

📅 Countdown Begins
After related supporting regulations and infrastructure are completed, the system is expected to take effect in February 2027. By then, traditional assets such as real estate, intellectual property, and investment contracts may all be enabled through tokenization, lowering investment barriers and improving liquidity efficiency.

$NVDAB ETH is likely to maintain a weak consolidation within the hour. Current price is around $1660-$1670, with strong resistance at $1680-$1720 above, and key support in the $1620-$1650 range below.

The news is weighed down by layoffs at the Ethereum Foundation and macro headwinds, resulting in weak rebound strength. If we can't break through $1680 with volume, be cautious of a pullback; if we lose $1650, we might see further dips to $1630 or even $1580. Better to stay cautious and watch for now.

ETH current price is about $1,730, and within the next hour it is experiencing weak sideways consolidation in the $1,720–$1,760 range.

Strong resistance is formed by $1,760–$1,780; a breakout is needed to open up room for movement. Key support below lies at $1,700–$1,720. Funds continue to flow into Bitcoin, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to a near two-year low, and the overall outlook remains bearish—so you need to guard against the risk of accelerated downside if support breaks.
$NVDAB

As of today (June 22, 2026), ETH is in a weak consolidation range between $1,715 and $1,741, with a slight drop of about 0.3% over the past 24 hours. $1,700 is a key psychological support, while the upper range of $1,739 to $1,760 forms strong resistance.

On-chain data shows that whales have opened large short positions at **$1,735**, and the ETF continues to experience net outflows, putting pressure on liquidity. The RSI technical indicator is around 44, leaning bearish. If it breaks below $1,700, it may test down to $1,680.

$ETH ETH is currently trading at around $1,734, up 1.8% over the last 24 hours, showing a mild short-term rebound.

On the technical side, there's a divergence between bulls and bears: the 1-hour indicators have entered the overbought zone, indicating potential pullback pressure in the short term; however, the 4-hour bullish structure remains intact. Key support levels are around $1,700-1,715, with resistance near $1,750. Given the current market dynamics, we may see short-term oscillations for price correction.

$ETH ETH is currently quoted at approximately $1,669, down 0.48% over the past 24 hours, and slipping below the 1,700 psychological threshold. Macroeconomic factors—such as the diversion of funds due to SpaceX and rising rate expectations—have suppressed sentiment, and capital continues to flow out. Technically, the daily chart shows a bearish trend; the 4-hour rebound on declining volume is only an oversold rebound/repair. Resistance is heavy in the 1,700–1,730 range above. Support lies at 1,650 below, with strong support at 1,620.

$ETH ETH continues the bearish trend within the hour. After breaking below the crucial support at 1730, it's weakly consolidating around 1685, with a bounce back to 1705 facing resistance. Technically, it has broken the ascending channel, and the next key support level is around 1580 dollars, with no clear reversal signal in the short term.

ETH current price is about $1729–$1754. It has been pressured by the Fed’s hawkish signals, with a drop of about 3.65% over the past 24 hours.

On the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are extremely tight (range 1731–1793), indicating a narrow consolidation that is building momentum in the short term. Strong resistance lies at 1760–1800, while key support is at 1725. If it breaks down or tests lower levels, it could fall to as low as 1700, or even 1680.

$ETH The current ETH price is about $1792, up 1.28% over the past 24 hours. In the early morning, affected by large transfers from institutions and continued ETF outflows, ETH saw a sharp drop of 0.62% within 15 minutes, with the low touching $1788, edging close to the key support level at $1760. The market is showing choppy stabilization and repair. Resistance near $1810 is the short-term pressure point, while $1758 is the first support level. Market sentiment remains cautious.

$ETH Based on the 1-hour candlestick chart as of June 14th, 1 AM Beijing time, ETH is showing the following characteristics:

📊 1. Market Scan: Volume Consolidation

ETH is currently hovering in the $1670 - $1690 range. Between 8:00 - 9:00 AM (Beijing time), a strong bullish candle (approximately 16.2k) attempted to push higher, but market momentum weakened, leading to a volume consolidation phase. Volatility has contracted, indicating a hesitation from both bulls and bears at this price level.

📈 2. Technical Breakdown: Waiting for Direction

· Support and Resistance: Short-term support is at $1670 - $1675, which is the recent buy support area; stronger defense is around the $1650 - $1660 line. If it holds above $1690, there’s a chance to test the $1700 level again.
· Indicator Signals: The 1-hour RSI is hovering around the 50 midline, and the MACD momentum bars are contracting, not giving a clear directional signal. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands' middle line (around $1663) provides upward traction, but the daily chart is still under pressure from the EMA50.

⚖️ 3. Funding and Sentiment: Bears Not Surrendering

The perpetual contract funding rate is slightly negative (around -0.001%), indicating that the cost of shorting is slightly lower than going long, with market sentiment being cautious and bears not fully surrendering. The market is still in a battle for existing positions, lacking a clear signal for new capital inflows.

📉 4. Key Variables and Trade References

Two key variables for the future market:

1. Geopolitical Risks: The situation in Iran and other geopolitical tensions are suppressing the urge to chase higher prices, so it's advised not to blindly chase the rally and to wait for clarity.
2. Macroeconomic Factors and Funding: Watch for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 17th, and whether ETF capital outflows further slow down.

For trading, aggressive investors may consider opening a light long position near $1675, with a stop-loss reference below $1660; if it rebounds to the $1700 - $1720 resistance zone, bulls should be cautious and gradually take profits.

Want to know the release times for key macro data that might impact ETH's price (like the Fed's interest rate decision)?

$ETH ETH is currently showing weak consolidation in the $1,630–$1,690 range. Resistance at $1,700 is strong, while support at $1,600 is holding for the moment. Funds continue to flow out, leaving insufficient rebound momentum; most likely, it will continue to trade sideways and consolidate.

$ETH ETH Short-term technical outlook is bearish, currently consolidating weakly around $1,600**. There is strong resistance in the **$1,640-$1,660** zone, while key support lies in the **$1,540-$1,550** range. Funding rates have turned negative and longs are getting liquidated, leading to cautious market sentiment; likely to maintain a low-level range-bound movement within the next hour.

$ETH ETH Current report $1628, with choppy weakness and further downward movement within 1 hour. Overhead resistance at $1660, support below at $1600-1612. If support is broken, there may be further dip toward $1550. Given that the bears are in control and the market is panicking, it is suggested to watch macro data; for the short term, focus mainly on shorting from above, and be mindful of spike risks.

In the past hour, ETH has risen slightly by 0.14%. Its current price is around $1,697. Overall, it has been consolidating sideways with very small price fluctuations. The $1,720 area above faces clear resistance pressure; meanwhile, short-term buying momentum is insufficient and trading volume remains steady with no breakout or surge. Market sentiment is cautious, and it moves in tandem with BTC, which is also fluctuating slightly. In the near term, there is no clear directional bias. Support is at $1,660, and the outlook is filled with a wait-and-see attitude.$ETH