July’s start is unfavorable: the big bet dips below 58,000, what is the market afraid of?
Entering July, the crypto market not only didn’t get a “red-hot start,” it took a blow right to the face. Bitcoin fell below $58,000, and Ethereum also retreated to around $1,560. On the surface it’s a price drop, but underneath it’s a liquidity “drain”:
1️⃣ Macro backdrop shifts: the market starts pricing in a Fed “rate hike” rather than a “cut,” the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets slide across the board.
2️⃣ The biggest bull loses confidence: Strategy hints it may sell coins, breaking the “only buy, never sell” sanctity—seriously damaging the faith layer.
3️⃣ Continued capital outflows: ETFs keep recording net outflows, compounded by near-term selling pressure brought on by the EU MiCA regulation taking effect, leaving the market without sufficient absorption power.
Technically, in terms of market structure, even though BTC is temporarily oversold (RSI near 30) and may see a rebound demand, the trend still leans bearish. ETH is under even heavier pressure due to liquidity contraction, and altcoins are in even more dismal shape. Given the current strategy, defense is better than offense. Waiting for a clear “volume-backed stabilization” signal is more prudent than blindly catching the bottom.
Entering July, the crypto market not only didn’t get a “red-hot start,” it took a blow right to the face. Bitcoin fell below $58,000, and Ethereum also retreated to around $1,560. On the surface it’s a price drop, but underneath it’s a liquidity “drain”:
1️⃣ Macro backdrop shifts: the market starts pricing in a Fed “rate hike” rather than a “cut,” the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets slide across the board.
2️⃣ The biggest bull loses confidence: Strategy hints it may sell coins, breaking the “only buy, never sell” sanctity—seriously damaging the faith layer.
3️⃣ Continued capital outflows: ETFs keep recording net outflows, compounded by near-term selling pressure brought on by the EU MiCA regulation taking effect, leaving the market without sufficient absorption power.
Technically, in terms of market structure, even though BTC is temporarily oversold (RSI near 30) and may see a rebound demand, the trend still leans bearish. ETH is under even heavier pressure due to liquidity contraction, and altcoins are in even more dismal shape. Given the current strategy, defense is better than offense. Waiting for a clear “volume-backed stabilization” signal is more prudent than blindly catching the bottom.