1. Dollar Index: Technical rebound is limited, with interest rate cut expectations dominating a weak medium to long-term pattern
This week, the dollar index first fell and then rose, closing with a long lower shadow bullish candle, rebounding from an 11-week low, with stability around 98.55 during the European session on Friday. Core game: Cooling inflation strengthens the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, suppressing the dollar's upward movement, with short-term support at 98.20 and risk aversion inflow driving the rebound recovery.
Next week's outlook: The rebound is likely to continue but the space is limited. It is inclined to fall back to the range of 97.7-98.2 for long positions, with a target looking up at around 98.7-99.0; if it breaks below the key support at 98.20, the downward trend may restart, looking down to the levels of 97.80 or even 97.50. The daily level confirmed a short-term support with a bullish close on Friday, and on Monday, key attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 98.20 support. If it falls back to this level, one can consider taking small long positions, initially looking at the resistance near 98.70 above, and after breaking through, looking towards the 99.0 mark. Caution is needed for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data that may disrupt policy expectations, thereby affecting the dollar's trend.
2. Gold: High-level fluctuations, be cautious of liquidity-driven volatility during the Christmas holiday.
This week, gold peaked at 4375 before retreating, maintaining a fluctuation of 100 dollars, with a weekly long shadow candlestick. Macroeconomic logic: Inflation cooling + interest rate cut expectations + geopolitical risks support long positions in the medium to long term; in the short term, driven by silver, mainly long with some short, beware of a pullback before breaking the previous high of 4381.
Next week, the EU and US Christmas holiday will see light trading, making it easy to experience fluctuations, and there is a high probability of small range fluctuations before the end of this month. Weekly support at 4301-4300 (long), resistance at 4381 (do not break for short); if it breaks above, look for 4400, strong resistance at 4440 (short); if it breaks below 4271, deep decline, strong support at 4220-4240.
The daily line has seen multiple doji stars recently, with a bullish doji star showing divergence on Friday. There are no major news over the weekend, with a tendency to rebound on Monday: resistance at 4348-4350 (do not break for short), 4328 as the dividing line for long and short (do not break for long); if it stabilizes above 4348, expect 4353-4360 (short); if it breaks below 4328, expect 4320-4312 (long).
3. Crude Oil: The weak fluctuation pattern remains unchanged, with geopolitics and demand dynamics dominating the range.
This week, US crude oil continued to weaken, falling to a nearly four-year low before rebounding, closing with a long lower shadow candlestick, fluctuating around 56 dollars. Core game: Geopolitical factors provide short-term support, global demand weakness limits bulls, and technical indicators show a medium-term downtrend.
Next week, maintain low-level fluctuations, resistance at 57.3-57.8, strong resistance at 58.5-59.0 (do not break for short positions); support at 55.0-55.5 (do not break for long positions). The daily line showed strong support with a long lower shadow on Friday, with possibilities of rising or falling on Monday: long if it does not break 55.8, short if it does not break 56.8; if it breaks 56.8, follow up with longs. Pay attention to US sanctions, Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and inventory data.
4. Summary of operational suggestions.
1. Gold: Monday 4328-4348 not breaking the previous high, short on low and long on high, follow the trend if it breaks; yesterday 4310 long, 4328 long, 4348 and 4353 short positions have already realized some profit.
2. Dollar Index: Dropped to 98.2 on Monday for a long position, target 98.7; next week long position in the range of 97.7-98.2, target 99.0.
3. Crude Oil: On Monday, focus on support at 55.8 and resistance at 56.8; if it does not break, correspondingly long or short; next week, around 55.0-57.8 for high short and low long, with strict stop-loss control.
Risk reminder: Liquidity contraction during the Christmas holiday amplifies volatility, geopolitical and Federal Reserve policy expectations may trigger gaps, requiring a safety margin. Analysis is for reference only, actual trading prevails.
