$ETH 1. Key price levels for core targets (real-time updated benchmark: 12.20 8:00)

Target Core support (stop-loss line) Strong support (extreme defense level) Core resistance (breakthrough line) Strong resistance (target level)

BTC 84,000-85,000 USD 80,000-82,000 USD 88,000-90,000 USD 92,000-94,000 USD

ETH 2750-2800 USD 2630-2700 USD 2900-2950 USD 3000-3300 USD

Mainstream altcoins (SOL/XRP/ADA) recent low -5% recent low -10% recent high +3% recent high +8%

2. Time window and triggering conditions

1. Short-term key window (12.20-12.25)

- Trigger Long: BTC stabilizes at $88,000 and 24-hour trading volume increases ≥20%; ETH breaks through $2,950 and holds the 50-day moving average.

- Trigger Reduction: BTC falls below $84,000 and does not recover within 30 minutes; ETH loses $2,750 accompanied by increased short volume.

- Neutral Observation: Price oscillates in the core support-resistance range, trading volume below the average over the past 7 days.

2. End-of-Month Window (12.26-12.31)

- Optimistic Scenario: Federal Reserve short-term treasury purchases release liquidity, BTC hits $92,000-$94,000, ETH tests $3,300.

- Pessimistic Scenario: No progress in regulatory negotiations + institutional funds continue to withdraw, BTC drops to $80,000, ETH reaches $2,630.

- Benchmark Scenario: Range bound finish, BTC around $85,000-$88,000, ETH around $2,750-$2,900.

III. Position Management Rules

1. Total Position Limit: Cryptocurrency assets ≤ 40%, stablecoins ≥ 60% (cash is king to cope with liquidity shrinkage).

2. Asset Allocation: BTC/ETH accounts for 70%-80% of cryptocurrency positions, altcoins ≤ 20% (to avoid liquidity risks of small-cap coins).

3. Leverage Control: High leverage (≤2 times) is strictly prohibited, single trade risk exposure ≤ 3%-5% of account net value.

4. Top-Up Rules: Only top up at strong support levels when a bullish RSI divergence occurs, top-up times ≤ 1, top-up amount ≤ 50% of initial position.

IV. Long and Short Operation Trigger Signals

Long Signal (can be executed if 2 or more conditions are met)

- Technical Aspect: Price stabilizes at the core resistance level for ≥ 4 hours, RSI exits the oversold range (BTC/ETH RSI > 50).

- Funding: BTC/ETH exchange balances decrease, stablecoin (USDT) net inflow into the cryptocurrency market.

- News: Positive progress reported in U.S. cryptocurrency bill negotiations, institutional funds flowing back into ETFs.

Short Signal (can be executed if 2 or more conditions are met)

- Technical Aspect: Core support level breaks and does not recover, ETH head-and-shoulders pattern confirmed (losing the $2,900 neckline).

- Funding: USDC continues to flow out of exchanges, futures short positions increase ≥15%.

- News: Regulatory differences widen, or significant long liquidations occur (single-day liquidation amount ≥ $500 million).

V. Key Points of Risk Control

1. Avoided Assets: MEME coins, low liquidity altcoins (trading volume below 50% of the average over the past 7 days), temporarily avoid regulatory uncertainties in the DeFi sector.

2. Time Risk Control: Gradually reduce leverage before December 31, cross-year positions ≤ 50% of cryptocurrency positions.

3. Message Risk Control: Focus on the progress of the U.S. cryptocurrency bill negotiations on December 28, and the Federal Reserve's liquidity injection data; suspend opening positions on the day of sudden news.