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一笔单最多应该亏多少，才不至于连心态一起爆掉？
#合约挑战 很多人口头上说自己“能接受止损”，
但真到实盘的时候，往往是这样的：
亏 20 U：还能淡定开玩笑
亏 200 U：开始皱眉，看盘频率翻倍
亏 2,000 U：心跳加速，手开始抖
亏到 5,000 U：人没爆仓，心态已经爆仓了
然后接下来会出现一连串熟悉的剧情：
本来设好的止损开始往下挪
明明该平仓，却死撑、硬扛
一边说“技术很重要”，一边用完全失控的心态在乱点
所以问题不是：
“你愿不愿意止损？”
而是：
“这笔单最多亏到什么程度，你还能保持清醒执行？”
今天这篇，我们就把这件事掰开讲清楚：
一笔单到底该亏多少，才不会连心态一起炸？
大部分人是怎么在“不设上限”的情况下把自己玩废的？
你现在就能用的一套“单笔亏损上限模板”。
一、技术再好，扛不住“心理上限”，都是白搭
你可以先问自己一个问题：
回想你最近几次最难受、最上头、最想翻盘的交易，
真正让你崩溃的，是亏几个点？还是亏多少钱？
大部分人的真实答案是：
“不是跌了几个点的问题，是那一笔的绝对金额太大。”
“亏到那个数，我整个人就乱了。”
也就是说：
图形看得懂，逻辑也说得清
真正把你搞废的，是那一刻你已经超出了自己能承受的金额
一笔单亏损太大，问题不只是钱没了：
你会开始怀疑自己的系统
你会下意识想：
“我得快点把这笔亏回来。”
你接下来所有的操作，
都会被这一笔亏损牵着走
这个时候，你再谈技术、谈系统，其实已经没意义了——
人已崩，技白学。
二、别先问“我最多能赚多少”，先问：
“我一笔最多能亏多少，还不至于心态爆掉？”
这个数字，其实就是你的
单笔风险上限
。
大部分「活得久」的人，都会有一条非常简单的底线：
一笔单最多亏总资金的 1%–2%。
你可能觉得这个比例“小得可怜”，
尤其是本金不大的时候，看着更嫌少。
但你先跟我算一笔账👇
假设一：你用“每笔亏 10%”的打法
资金：10,000 U
每笔亏错一次：-10% = -1,000 U
只要：
连续错 3 笔：你就从 10,000 → 7,000
连续错 5 笔：直接掉到 5,000
这还只是“正常连续错”，
还不算你越亏越上头、越上头越加仓。
关键是：
每次一亏就是 10%，
每次触发止损，你的心态都在被硬撕一块肉。
你很难在这种强度下，
保持“冷静执行系统”的状态。
假设二：你用“每笔亏 2%”的打法
同样资金：10,000 U
每笔最多亏 2% = 200 U
连续错 5 笔：亏 10%
连续错 10 笔：亏 20%
你会不舒服，但——
还在可调整范围内
你有时间改策略、修系统、调心态
你还有资格说一句：“我继续练。”
这就是区别：
10% 一刀，是把你直接从山腰踹下去。
2% 一刀，是允许你在山路上摔跤，但不至于滚到底。
三、为什么我会建议小白把“单笔风险”压到 1%–2%？
不是我保守，是你现在真的扛不起更高的节奏。
原因有三 👇
1）你现在技术不稳定，难免会连续犯错
刚入场的一两年，你必然会遇到：
情绪化交易
新系统没磨合好
对行情理解偏差
高频、复杂、花里胡哨的策略暂且不论，
光是：
止损下早了
止损下晚了
该空不空、该多不多
这些最基础的错误，
就足够让你
连错几笔
。
单笔风险高的人：
连错 2 笔，就开始崩溃
连错 3 笔，就开始怀疑人生
单笔风险低的人：
连错 5 笔也还能吃得下
有空间慢慢修正，而不是一两次就认输离场
2）你的心态没训练够，承受不了大起大落
你可以想象两个画面：
画面 A：
一笔单亏 3,000 U
你盯着手机，半小时说不出话
那天晚上基本不用睡了
画面 B：
一笔单亏 200 U
会难受，但还能正常吃饭、正常复盘
哪个画面，更像你可以长期承受的？
这就是单笔风险差异带来的心态成本。
一笔亏太多，不只是钱的问题，
而是你会开始害怕“再来一次”，
从此进入“瞎搞 → 大亏 → 怕 → 再瞎搞”的死循环。
3）你以后想玩复利，前提是——别先把本金炸没
复利的前提是什么？
本金在
心态在
系统在
只要这三件事还在，你就有未来。
一笔亏太大，伤到的是：
本金：数字肉眼可见地变小
心态：你开始不敢执行止损、不敢进场
系统：你开始怀疑一切，想重来、想改、想推倒
这就是为什么我说：
“单笔亏损控制不好，谈什么技术、复利，都是自欺欺人。”
四、那具体该怎么定？给你一套“从实战往回推”的方法
我们来做一个
你可以直接照抄的配置模板
。
假设：
你的交易资金是
10,000 U
（数字随便换，逻辑一样）
第一步：先定“单笔亏损上限”
建议：
小白 / 正在扫盲阶段：1%–2%
稍微成熟一点：2%–3%（再往上就很危险了）
拿 2% 来算：
单笔止损最大亏损 = 10,000 × 2% =
200 U
👉 这就是你这笔单“心理和资金的极限代价”。
第二步：再定“这一单的技术止损在哪里？”
比如你做的是合约 / 现货波段：
你看中的是某个
支撑位 / 结构位
你认为：
“如果跌破这里，说明我这次判断错了。”
假如：
入场价：100
技术上合理的止损：95（跌 5% 就认错）
那么：
止损距离 = 5%
单笔最大可亏 = 200 U
👉 这笔单的
最大名义仓位 = 200 / 5% = 4,000 U
也就是说：
不管你多看好、多兴奋、多 FOMO，
这笔单最多就 4,000 U 仓位
再多就是在突破你自己的底线，不是“机会好”，是“手贱病犯了”。
第三步：顺手把杠杆和保证金也“绑住”
如果你玩的是合约：
你打算用 2 倍杠杆：
名义仓位 4,000 U → 保证金 2,000 U
你打算用 4 倍杠杆：
名义仓位 4,000 U → 保证金 1,000 U
但无论用几倍，
这笔单“最多亏 200 U”的底线不能动。
注意顺序：
先定亏多少，再决定开多大仓，
绝不是反过来：先把仓位放到最大，再看会亏多少。
五、那如果本金很小，1%–2%感觉“没意思”怎么办？
这是很多小资金小白最容易纠结的地方：
“老师，我才 2,000 U，
1% 就 20U，
做这个有啥意义？”
听着扎心，但我必须讲实话：
本金小 ≠ 就该提高单笔风险比例
你现在承受风险的能力有限
你现在更需要的是“活得久 + 学得稳”
本金小，只能说明：
把 1%–2%硬拉到 5%–10%，
不是“提高效率”，是“加速清场”。
你现在做交易的主要目标，应该是：练习，而不是一把翻身
练：执行力
练：看图、下单、止损、复盘
练：在波动里保持清醒
本金小的时候，亏钱的每一块钱，都比将来更值钱
现在每亏 100 U，你都心疼
未来你资金变大了，这种“心疼”成本会更贵
越在早期，把亏损控制得精细，你越有机会长大。
说白了：
本金越小，你越不该任性，
而不是“反正才这么点钱，那我拼一拼”。
六、给你的“一眼就能执行”的简单规则
你可以把下面这几条，直接写在你的交易记录本 / 屏幕旁边：
单笔最大亏损 = 账户总资金的 1%–2%
超过这个数字的止损，一律视为“违规单”
下单前必须回答三件事：
我的技术止损在哪个价格？
从入场到止损，大概是几个点的距离？
按照单笔最大亏损 X U，这笔单最多能开多少名义仓位？
止损打掉 = 计划内损失，不许复仇加倍
被止损后，不允许立刻加倍开反方向
当天单笔亏损达到上限后，必须空仓冷静一段时间
只要一笔亏损让你睡不好觉，下次必须减少仓位
这是身体给你的信号：
“这个金额，你的心理承受不了。”
下一次用稍微小一点的数字，
把自己调整回能正常执行的范围
------------
所以我才反复强调这一句：
一笔单最多应该亏多少，
才不至于连心态一起爆掉？
标准答案，不在我这儿，
在你自己对“亏损数字”的真实反应里。
我只是给你一个
底线区间
：
绝大多数普通人，
单笔亏损控制在
1%–2%
，既有感觉，又不至于爆心态
剩下的，就是你要自己诚实面对：
哪个数字，会让你开始不睡觉？
哪个数字，会让你一上来就想翻本？
哪个数字，会让你开始后悔“为什么要这么大仓位”？
把亏损控制在“不会毁掉你执行力的范围内”，
才叫真的在做交易，而不是在赌运气。#BTC
但真到实盘的时候，往往是这样的：
亏 20 U：还能淡定开玩笑
亏 200 U：开始皱眉，看盘频率翻倍
亏 2,000 U：心跳加速，手开始抖
亏到 5,000 U：人没爆仓，心态已经爆仓了
然后接下来会出现一连串熟悉的剧情：
本来设好的止损开始往下挪
明明该平仓，却死撑、硬扛
一边说“技术很重要”，一边用完全失控的心态在乱点
所以问题不是：
“你愿不愿意止损？”
而是：
“这笔单最多亏到什么程度，你还能保持清醒执行？”
今天这篇，我们就把这件事掰开讲清楚：
一笔单到底该亏多少，才不会连心态一起炸？
大部分人是怎么在“不设上限”的情况下把自己玩废的？
你现在就能用的一套“单笔亏损上限模板”。
一、技术再好，扛不住“心理上限”，都是白搭
你可以先问自己一个问题：
回想你最近几次最难受、最上头、最想翻盘的交易，
真正让你崩溃的，是亏几个点？还是亏多少钱？
大部分人的真实答案是：
“不是跌了几个点的问题，是那一笔的绝对金额太大。”
“亏到那个数，我整个人就乱了。”
也就是说：
图形看得懂，逻辑也说得清
真正把你搞废的，是那一刻你已经超出了自己能承受的金额
一笔单亏损太大，问题不只是钱没了：
你会开始怀疑自己的系统
你会下意识想：
“我得快点把这笔亏回来。”
你接下来所有的操作，
都会被这一笔亏损牵着走
这个时候，你再谈技术、谈系统，其实已经没意义了——
人已崩，技白学。
二、别先问“我最多能赚多少”，先问：
“我一笔最多能亏多少，还不至于心态爆掉？”
这个数字，其实就是你的
单笔风险上限
。
大部分「活得久」的人，都会有一条非常简单的底线：
一笔单最多亏总资金的 1%–2%。
你可能觉得这个比例“小得可怜”，
尤其是本金不大的时候，看着更嫌少。
但你先跟我算一笔账👇
假设一：你用“每笔亏 10%”的打法
资金：10,000 U
每笔亏错一次：-10% = -1,000 U
只要：
连续错 3 笔：你就从 10,000 → 7,000
连续错 5 笔：直接掉到 5,000
这还只是“正常连续错”，
还不算你越亏越上头、越上头越加仓。
关键是：
每次一亏就是 10%，
每次触发止损，你的心态都在被硬撕一块肉。
你很难在这种强度下，
保持“冷静执行系统”的状态。
假设二：你用“每笔亏 2%”的打法
同样资金：10,000 U
每笔最多亏 2% = 200 U
连续错 5 笔：亏 10%
连续错 10 笔：亏 20%
你会不舒服，但——
还在可调整范围内
你有时间改策略、修系统、调心态
你还有资格说一句：“我继续练。”
这就是区别：
10% 一刀，是把你直接从山腰踹下去。
2% 一刀，是允许你在山路上摔跤，但不至于滚到底。
三、为什么我会建议小白把“单笔风险”压到 1%–2%？
不是我保守，是你现在真的扛不起更高的节奏。
原因有三 👇
1）你现在技术不稳定，难免会连续犯错
刚入场的一两年，你必然会遇到：
情绪化交易
新系统没磨合好
对行情理解偏差
高频、复杂、花里胡哨的策略暂且不论，
光是：
止损下早了
止损下晚了
该空不空、该多不多
这些最基础的错误，
就足够让你
连错几笔
。
单笔风险高的人：
连错 2 笔，就开始崩溃
连错 3 笔，就开始怀疑人生
单笔风险低的人：
连错 5 笔也还能吃得下
有空间慢慢修正，而不是一两次就认输离场
2）你的心态没训练够，承受不了大起大落
你可以想象两个画面：
画面 A：
一笔单亏 3,000 U
你盯着手机，半小时说不出话
那天晚上基本不用睡了
画面 B：
一笔单亏 200 U
会难受，但还能正常吃饭、正常复盘
哪个画面，更像你可以长期承受的？
这就是单笔风险差异带来的心态成本。
一笔亏太多，不只是钱的问题，
而是你会开始害怕“再来一次”，
从此进入“瞎搞 → 大亏 → 怕 → 再瞎搞”的死循环。
3）你以后想玩复利，前提是——别先把本金炸没
复利的前提是什么？
本金在
心态在
系统在
只要这三件事还在，你就有未来。
一笔亏太大，伤到的是：
本金：数字肉眼可见地变小
心态：你开始不敢执行止损、不敢进场
系统：你开始怀疑一切，想重来、想改、想推倒
这就是为什么我说：
“单笔亏损控制不好，谈什么技术、复利，都是自欺欺人。”
四、那具体该怎么定？给你一套“从实战往回推”的方法
我们来做一个
你可以直接照抄的配置模板
。
假设：
你的交易资金是
10,000 U
（数字随便换，逻辑一样）
第一步：先定“单笔亏损上限”
建议：
小白 / 正在扫盲阶段：1%–2%
稍微成熟一点：2%–3%（再往上就很危险了）
拿 2% 来算：
单笔止损最大亏损 = 10,000 × 2% =
200 U
👉 这就是你这笔单“心理和资金的极限代价”。
第二步：再定“这一单的技术止损在哪里？”
比如你做的是合约 / 现货波段：
你看中的是某个
支撑位 / 结构位
你认为：
“如果跌破这里，说明我这次判断错了。”
假如：
入场价：100
技术上合理的止损：95（跌 5% 就认错）
那么：
止损距离 = 5%
单笔最大可亏 = 200 U
👉 这笔单的
最大名义仓位 = 200 / 5% = 4,000 U
也就是说：
不管你多看好、多兴奋、多 FOMO，
这笔单最多就 4,000 U 仓位
再多就是在突破你自己的底线，不是“机会好”，是“手贱病犯了”。
第三步：顺手把杠杆和保证金也“绑住”
如果你玩的是合约：
你打算用 2 倍杠杆：
名义仓位 4,000 U → 保证金 2,000 U
你打算用 4 倍杠杆：
名义仓位 4,000 U → 保证金 1,000 U
但无论用几倍，
这笔单“最多亏 200 U”的底线不能动。
注意顺序：
先定亏多少，再决定开多大仓，
绝不是反过来：先把仓位放到最大，再看会亏多少。
五、那如果本金很小，1%–2%感觉“没意思”怎么办？
这是很多小资金小白最容易纠结的地方：
“老师，我才 2,000 U，
1% 就 20U，
做这个有啥意义？”
听着扎心，但我必须讲实话：
本金小 ≠ 就该提高单笔风险比例
你现在承受风险的能力有限
你现在更需要的是“活得久 + 学得稳”
本金小，只能说明：
把 1%–2%硬拉到 5%–10%，
不是“提高效率”，是“加速清场”。
你现在做交易的主要目标，应该是：练习，而不是一把翻身
练：执行力
练：看图、下单、止损、复盘
练：在波动里保持清醒
本金小的时候，亏钱的每一块钱，都比将来更值钱
现在每亏 100 U，你都心疼
未来你资金变大了，这种“心疼”成本会更贵
越在早期，把亏损控制得精细，你越有机会长大。
说白了：
本金越小，你越不该任性，
而不是“反正才这么点钱，那我拼一拼”。
六、给你的“一眼就能执行”的简单规则
你可以把下面这几条，直接写在你的交易记录本 / 屏幕旁边：
单笔最大亏损 = 账户总资金的 1%–2%
超过这个数字的止损，一律视为“违规单”
下单前必须回答三件事：
我的技术止损在哪个价格？
从入场到止损，大概是几个点的距离？
按照单笔最大亏损 X U，这笔单最多能开多少名义仓位？
止损打掉 = 计划内损失，不许复仇加倍
被止损后，不允许立刻加倍开反方向
当天单笔亏损达到上限后，必须空仓冷静一段时间
只要一笔亏损让你睡不好觉，下次必须减少仓位
这是身体给你的信号：
“这个金额，你的心理承受不了。”
下一次用稍微小一点的数字，
把自己调整回能正常执行的范围
------------
所以我才反复强调这一句：
一笔单最多应该亏多少，
才不至于连心态一起爆掉？
标准答案，不在我这儿，
在你自己对“亏损数字”的真实反应里。
我只是给你一个
底线区间
：
绝大多数普通人，
单笔亏损控制在
1%–2%
，既有感觉，又不至于爆心态
剩下的，就是你要自己诚实面对：
哪个数字，会让你开始不睡觉？
哪个数字，会让你一上来就想翻本？
哪个数字，会让你开始后悔“为什么要这么大仓位”？
把亏损控制在“不会毁掉你执行力的范围内”，
才叫真的在做交易，而不是在赌运气。#BTC
See original
Survival Guide for Trading with Small Capital Accounts
For those who only have a few hundred U, this guide is a must-read. Especially for players with less than 1000U in principal, don't rush to open a position.
The cryptocurrency market is actually a long-term battle. The less capital you have, the more conservative your approach should be—like an old hunter: stay alive first, then think about making money.
Last year, when I helped a friend enter the market, he only had 500U in his account, and his fingers were trembling while clicking the mouse. The first thing I told him was: "Don't think about doubling; first learn not to get liquidated." Three months later, his account grew to 18000U. Throughout the entire period, there were 0 liquidations and 0 margin calls. This isn't built on luck; it's based on these three strict rules:
The cryptocurrency market is actually a long-term battle. The less capital you have, the more conservative your approach should be—like an old hunter: stay alive first, then think about making money.
Last year, when I helped a friend enter the market, he only had 500U in his account, and his fingers were trembling while clicking the mouse. The first thing I told him was: "Don't think about doubling; first learn not to get liquidated." Three months later, his account grew to 18000U. Throughout the entire period, there were 0 liquidations and 0 margin calls. This isn't built on luck; it's based on these three strict rules:
See original
Core situation assessment: Is it 'bottom building' or 'downward continuation'?
• Short-term support confirmation: ETH rebounded around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure and short covering in this range.
• Indicator repair demand: 15 minutes/1 hour KDJ is in an oversold low position. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the deviation rate from the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels are still bearish. Therefore, the upcoming strategy is: re-enter short positions at high levels > short-term long positions at support levels.
High position again to short (main strategy, follow the medium-term trend)
The ideal secondary short point will slightly move down:
• Indicator repair demand: 15 minutes/1 hour KDJ is in an oversold low position. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the deviation rate from the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels are still bearish. Therefore, the upcoming strategy is: re-enter short positions at high levels > short-term long positions at support levels.
High position again to short (main strategy, follow the medium-term trend)
The ideal secondary short point will slightly move down:
Translate
以史为鉴，现在的比特币在周期内的什么位置？
$BTC
今天主要聊一下比特币吧自己持有一定比例的比特币相关的股票，现在的价格到底在什么水位，未来一年预计会是什么样的走势，需要盘一下了
1、比特币的周期性比特币有一个非常明显的周期性，从过去几次来看，基本上是4年一个周期，非常的稳定！至于周期的原因，众说纷纭，但核心的影响因素在于比特币产出减半事件比特币减半是比特币网络中一个预设的、自动触发的事件，其核心机制旨在控制比特币的发行速度，确保其总量恒定为2100万枚，从而构建其稀缺性价值基础。
该事件的驱动为每产生约21万个新区块（大约每四年）发生一次，将矿工开采新比特币的区块奖励减半。
每一次减半的出现均代表了矿工同样的投入下所获得收益减少，部分不赚钱的矿工退出，会延缓比特币的产生。
可以理解为，黄金的开采成本提升，市场上可交易的黄金减少，价格就涨上去了。
因此，在减半发生后不久，比特币价格会迎来一波上涨，等到价格涨到就算挖矿奖励减半依旧有得赚，又会有更多的人参与挖矿，带来供给的提升，之后价格会有出现反复。
当然由于比特币的产出是虚拟的，没有物质世界映射，所以其波动和周期也并不完全遵照供需的平衡关系。
还有流动性、社会共识、投机热潮、市场情绪等等因素的影响。
但最终的结果表现就是，以减半为周期起点，在12-18个月之后价格达到顶峰，然后开始回调；又花12-18个月价格触底，然后开始反弹，一直到新一轮减半的开始。
2、周期内的价格波动
最近一轮减半的时间是2024年4月，那我们来看一下，现在是在周期内的什么位置？
上表总结了最近4轮周期比特币价格的走势，可以看到：
减半后12-18个月价格到达顶峰，顶峰价格相较减半时涨幅至少翻倍
顶峰后回撤幅度惊人，可以达80%
从高点到周期反弹低点一般需要13个月
那我们回头再来看一下本轮周期的表现：
1）24年4月减半后第18个月（2025年10月）出现了高点，比特币接近13万刀；
2）高点后回撤低点8万刀，回撤幅度36%；
3）高点->低点历时仅1个月
如果按照前几次周期的趋势来看，现在的8万刀似乎并不是真正的低点，因为回撤幅度仅36%，远未达到之前周期的回撤规模。
另外，周期也太短，或者说就算8万刀是低点，那现在也并非比特币价格反弹的拐点，市场至少还需要历时至少6-12个月才会企稳回升。
当然，由于近2年以来，比特币相关的政策和社会环境都有了非常大的改善，也有很多的声音表示，这次可能不一样那如果不一样的话，接下来市场会有什么走势呢？
3、未来价格走势及投资策略我们按照乐观、中性和悲观三个视角来推演一下：
悲观：8万非价格底部，跌幅至少要接近60%-70%，即价格会跌到5万刀以下；而且时间上来看，需要到2026年下半年方能企稳开始回升。
中观：8万为价格底部，但是价格会在8万-10万之间震荡，一直到26年下半年开始进入上升通道。
乐观：8万为价格底部，而且回调周期大幅缩短，2026年上半年就会开始上涨。
三者更倾向于哪一种不同的人有不同的判断由于未来无法预测，我们只能根据三者不同情况下我们所能接受的风险和收益进行仓位调整。
今天主要聊一下比特币吧自己持有一定比例的比特币相关的股票，现在的价格到底在什么水位，未来一年预计会是什么样的走势，需要盘一下了
1、比特币的周期性比特币有一个非常明显的周期性，从过去几次来看，基本上是4年一个周期，非常的稳定！至于周期的原因，众说纷纭，但核心的影响因素在于比特币产出减半事件比特币减半是比特币网络中一个预设的、自动触发的事件，其核心机制旨在控制比特币的发行速度，确保其总量恒定为2100万枚，从而构建其稀缺性价值基础。
该事件的驱动为每产生约21万个新区块（大约每四年）发生一次，将矿工开采新比特币的区块奖励减半。
每一次减半的出现均代表了矿工同样的投入下所获得收益减少，部分不赚钱的矿工退出，会延缓比特币的产生。
可以理解为，黄金的开采成本提升，市场上可交易的黄金减少，价格就涨上去了。
因此，在减半发生后不久，比特币价格会迎来一波上涨，等到价格涨到就算挖矿奖励减半依旧有得赚，又会有更多的人参与挖矿，带来供给的提升，之后价格会有出现反复。
当然由于比特币的产出是虚拟的，没有物质世界映射，所以其波动和周期也并不完全遵照供需的平衡关系。
还有流动性、社会共识、投机热潮、市场情绪等等因素的影响。
但最终的结果表现就是，以减半为周期起点，在12-18个月之后价格达到顶峰，然后开始回调；又花12-18个月价格触底，然后开始反弹，一直到新一轮减半的开始。
2、周期内的价格波动
最近一轮减半的时间是2024年4月，那我们来看一下，现在是在周期内的什么位置？
上表总结了最近4轮周期比特币价格的走势，可以看到：
减半后12-18个月价格到达顶峰，顶峰价格相较减半时涨幅至少翻倍
顶峰后回撤幅度惊人，可以达80%
从高点到周期反弹低点一般需要13个月
那我们回头再来看一下本轮周期的表现：
1）24年4月减半后第18个月（2025年10月）出现了高点，比特币接近13万刀；
2）高点后回撤低点8万刀，回撤幅度36%；
3）高点->低点历时仅1个月
如果按照前几次周期的趋势来看，现在的8万刀似乎并不是真正的低点，因为回撤幅度仅36%，远未达到之前周期的回撤规模。
另外，周期也太短，或者说就算8万刀是低点，那现在也并非比特币价格反弹的拐点，市场至少还需要历时至少6-12个月才会企稳回升。
当然，由于近2年以来，比特币相关的政策和社会环境都有了非常大的改善，也有很多的声音表示，这次可能不一样那如果不一样的话，接下来市场会有什么走势呢？
3、未来价格走势及投资策略我们按照乐观、中性和悲观三个视角来推演一下：
悲观：8万非价格底部，跌幅至少要接近60%-70%，即价格会跌到5万刀以下；而且时间上来看，需要到2026年下半年方能企稳开始回升。
中观：8万为价格底部，但是价格会在8万-10万之间震荡，一直到26年下半年开始进入上升通道。
乐观：8万为价格底部，而且回调周期大幅缩短，2026年上半年就会开始上涨。
三者更倾向于哪一种不同的人有不同的判断由于未来无法预测，我们只能根据三者不同情况下我们所能接受的风险和收益进行仓位调整。
Translate
梳理一下LIGHT这个项目崩盘前4个小时都发生了什么？
#大户持仓动态 $LIGHT 这个项目崩盘前4小时，团队钱包往交易所塞进了640万美元的代币。链上数据摆在那儿，公开透明，人人都能看。但结果呢？散户还是一窝蜂冲进去，主动往刀刃上贴。
有个行业老手复盘了这次事件，最后得出个结论：最可怕的不是庄家有多狠，而是散户明明看见危险信号，硬是选择视而不见。
**交易额的谎言**
先看组数据。$LIGHT的24小时成交额是21.35亿美元。对标一下，$SOL才19.4亿，$BTC交易额在80亿左右。一个籍籍无名的小项目，交易量居然超过公链龙头？这不是项目牛逼，而是流动性陷阱设计得太精妙。庄家拿散户的FOMO心理做文章，大家争相进场提供流动性，最后一网打尽。这种套路套了太多人。
**链上时间线说话**
时间序列很清楚：
- **12月19日**：团队钱包充值240万美元到交易所
- **12月21日**：再来一波，又是240万美元到另一个地址
- **12月22日凌晨**：最后一击——充值640万美元代币
- **随后闪崩**：75%的下跌，瞬间秒杀
这是分阶段的试探、准备、收网。第一步试水市场反应，第二步积累筹码，第三步直接砸盘。关键在于，这些数据都在链上，没人能改，散户却还是冲了进去。
**散户为什么自杀式冲入？**
行业老手总结了三个常见的心理陷阱：
**陷阱一：永远觉得自己不会是最后一个**
看币在涨，脑子里就装着一个想法——"我就赚一点就跑，不会被套"。问题是，庄家收网的速度比你的反应快十倍。你以为的"赚一点"，10分钟就变成-50%。自欺欺人最致命。
**陷阱二：迷信技术分析能逃顶**
很多人拿着K线图、画指标、看什么MACD、RSI，自认能看出顶部。但你得明白，在庄控盘的项目里，K线就是人工画出来的。你的指标在庄家眼里就是个笑话，完全没用。
**陷阱三：看别人赚钱自己也想赚**
群里有人发截图炫收益，刚看到就想冲。但那些人可能是托，或者就是庄家放出来的第一批获利盘，目的就是吸引你这样的接盘侠进来。心理学叫FOMO，币圈叫血本无归。
**怎么避坑？**
其实也没那么复杂：
**第一条：交易额异常高的新币坚决别碰**
正常项目交易额不会超SOL，一超就是信号——这数据本身就是陷阱。学会上链查数据，这是基本功。
**第二条：团队钱包充值交易所=砸盘倒计时**
不需要什么高深技术分析，就这一个信号就够了。看到就走，别想着"可能还会涨"。
**第三条："我就赚一点"这句话最危险**
庄家不按你的节奏来。当他决定收网，你连反应的时间都没有。贪心加侥幸，结局只有一个。
**最后的话**
$LIGHT崩盘这事儿，币圈每天都在上演。不同币种，一样的套路。散户亏钱，根本不是信息不足——链上数据摆在那儿谁都能看。真正的问题是，明明看到了危险，还是选择忽视。贪婪和侥幸，比任何庄家都要可怕。
有个行业老手复盘了这次事件，最后得出个结论：最可怕的不是庄家有多狠，而是散户明明看见危险信号，硬是选择视而不见。
**交易额的谎言**
先看组数据。$LIGHT的24小时成交额是21.35亿美元。对标一下，$SOL才19.4亿，$BTC交易额在80亿左右。一个籍籍无名的小项目，交易量居然超过公链龙头？这不是项目牛逼，而是流动性陷阱设计得太精妙。庄家拿散户的FOMO心理做文章，大家争相进场提供流动性，最后一网打尽。这种套路套了太多人。
**链上时间线说话**
时间序列很清楚：
- **12月19日**：团队钱包充值240万美元到交易所
- **12月21日**：再来一波，又是240万美元到另一个地址
- **12月22日凌晨**：最后一击——充值640万美元代币
- **随后闪崩**：75%的下跌，瞬间秒杀
这是分阶段的试探、准备、收网。第一步试水市场反应，第二步积累筹码，第三步直接砸盘。关键在于，这些数据都在链上，没人能改，散户却还是冲了进去。
**散户为什么自杀式冲入？**
行业老手总结了三个常见的心理陷阱：
**陷阱一：永远觉得自己不会是最后一个**
看币在涨，脑子里就装着一个想法——"我就赚一点就跑，不会被套"。问题是，庄家收网的速度比你的反应快十倍。你以为的"赚一点"，10分钟就变成-50%。自欺欺人最致命。
**陷阱二：迷信技术分析能逃顶**
很多人拿着K线图、画指标、看什么MACD、RSI，自认能看出顶部。但你得明白，在庄控盘的项目里，K线就是人工画出来的。你的指标在庄家眼里就是个笑话，完全没用。
**陷阱三：看别人赚钱自己也想赚**
群里有人发截图炫收益，刚看到就想冲。但那些人可能是托，或者就是庄家放出来的第一批获利盘，目的就是吸引你这样的接盘侠进来。心理学叫FOMO，币圈叫血本无归。
**怎么避坑？**
其实也没那么复杂：
**第一条：交易额异常高的新币坚决别碰**
正常项目交易额不会超SOL，一超就是信号——这数据本身就是陷阱。学会上链查数据，这是基本功。
**第二条：团队钱包充值交易所=砸盘倒计时**
不需要什么高深技术分析，就这一个信号就够了。看到就走，别想着"可能还会涨"。
**第三条："我就赚一点"这句话最危险**
庄家不按你的节奏来。当他决定收网，你连反应的时间都没有。贪心加侥幸，结局只有一个。
**最后的话**
$LIGHT崩盘这事儿，币圈每天都在上演。不同币种，一样的套路。散户亏钱，根本不是信息不足——链上数据摆在那儿谁都能看。真正的问题是，明明看到了危险，还是选择忽视。贪婪和侥幸，比任何庄家都要可怕。
See original
#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH British listed companies stumble in Bitcoin investment - this hot topic at the beginning of 2025 is worth reviewing.
At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin prices skyrocketed, and some digital asset management giants in the United States were highly sought after. This enthusiasm quickly spread to the British Isles. By the summer peak, the valuations of such companies even surged to $127 billion. Seeing such a strong profit effect, local British companies couldn't sit still.
So what happened? According to relevant media estimates, 13 British listed companies invested a total of £364 million during this wave, acquiring nearly 4,300 Bitcoins. The average cost comes down to $113,105 per coin (approximately £85,076).
But problems soon emerged - the timing these companies chose to intervene happened to be at a stage close to the market peak. Last Friday, the Bitcoin quote was $87,950, which is a 22% drop compared to these companies' average purchase price. In addition, certain losses triggered by asset liquidations of some crypto ecosystem participants (about £40 million) have brought the cumulative paper losses of these 13 companies in Bitcoin-related investments close to £79.1 million.
This case may provide some insights for later entrants: market enthusiasm and investment timing are often two different things.
At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin prices skyrocketed, and some digital asset management giants in the United States were highly sought after. This enthusiasm quickly spread to the British Isles. By the summer peak, the valuations of such companies even surged to $127 billion. Seeing such a strong profit effect, local British companies couldn't sit still.
So what happened? According to relevant media estimates, 13 British listed companies invested a total of £364 million during this wave, acquiring nearly 4,300 Bitcoins. The average cost comes down to $113,105 per coin (approximately £85,076).
But problems soon emerged - the timing these companies chose to intervene happened to be at a stage close to the market peak. Last Friday, the Bitcoin quote was $87,950, which is a 22% drop compared to these companies' average purchase price. In addition, certain losses triggered by asset liquidations of some crypto ecosystem participants (about £40 million) have brought the cumulative paper losses of these 13 companies in Bitcoin-related investments close to £79.1 million.
This case may provide some insights for later entrants: market enthusiasm and investment timing are often two different things.
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#美联储回购协议计划 $BTC $ETH Some bears may feel a bit awkward right now. The market trends speak for themselves, and the data does not lie. The recent gains of $BTC and $ETH are right in front of us—having different opinions is normal, but facts speak louder than words.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indeed adds uncertainty to the market. At this juncture, positioning short above $3100 may not be the best choice. The trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum require more patience to observe. In the end, time will verify whose judgment is closer to reality. The market has always been a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and it's perfectly normal for both sides to have their arguments—only the final winners are usually those who dare to adjust their thinking.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indeed adds uncertainty to the market. At this juncture, positioning short above $3100 may not be the best choice. The trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum require more patience to observe. In the end, time will verify whose judgment is closer to reality. The market has always been a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and it's perfectly normal for both sides to have their arguments—only the final winners are usually those who dare to adjust their thinking.
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#数字资产市场洞察 Recently, I've encountered quite a few people asking: Is it still worth laying out a plan for $BNB at this stage?
My view is very straightforward—large cryptocurrencies are not meant for chasing highs and lows; they're meant for gradual accumulation.
I know a friend who has been continuously buying BNB since 2022. Initially, he couldn't avoid psychological fluctuations, but over time he discovered an interesting phenomenon: those who truly profit never care about the lows and highs; they maintain their composure. Now this guy has achieved financial independence, and work has become an option for him.
Speaking of regular investments, I have summarized three strategies, each with its own characteristics:
**First: Time Anchoring Method**
Fixed period, fixed amount. For example, invest 600U every week without looking at the candlestick charts, just execute. Over the long term, the cost will naturally be averaged out evenly.
**Second: Price Layering Method**
Set three price points in advance:
- Drop to 300U, first entry
- Drop to 400U, add position
- Drop to 500U, significantly build position
The advantage of this approach is that when the market declines, it actually becomes an opportunity to enter, and the mindset is completely different.
**Third: Technical Reference**
Use EMA100 as a mid-term judgment line; when BNB approaches this line, it usually signals a mid-term bottom. If you want to be more conservative, EMA200 can help you grasp the long-term rhythm.
These methods may seem unremarkable, but the key lies in whether one can persist. Regular investment is never about being smarter; it's about who has more patience. Those who can sustain regular investments for a whole year before a bull market starts often appear very 'lucky'—in reality, they have simply prepared in advance.
If you also want to break free from the cycle of blindly following trends and avoid some detours, rather than repeatedly exploring, it's better to clarify your strategic framework first. There is no shortcut to regular investments, but there are methods.
My view is very straightforward—large cryptocurrencies are not meant for chasing highs and lows; they're meant for gradual accumulation.
I know a friend who has been continuously buying BNB since 2022. Initially, he couldn't avoid psychological fluctuations, but over time he discovered an interesting phenomenon: those who truly profit never care about the lows and highs; they maintain their composure. Now this guy has achieved financial independence, and work has become an option for him.
Speaking of regular investments, I have summarized three strategies, each with its own characteristics:
**First: Time Anchoring Method**
Fixed period, fixed amount. For example, invest 600U every week without looking at the candlestick charts, just execute. Over the long term, the cost will naturally be averaged out evenly.
**Second: Price Layering Method**
Set three price points in advance:
- Drop to 300U, first entry
- Drop to 400U, add position
- Drop to 500U, significantly build position
The advantage of this approach is that when the market declines, it actually becomes an opportunity to enter, and the mindset is completely different.
**Third: Technical Reference**
Use EMA100 as a mid-term judgment line; when BNB approaches this line, it usually signals a mid-term bottom. If you want to be more conservative, EMA200 can help you grasp the long-term rhythm.
These methods may seem unremarkable, but the key lies in whether one can persist. Regular investment is never about being smarter; it's about who has more patience. Those who can sustain regular investments for a whole year before a bull market starts often appear very 'lucky'—in reality, they have simply prepared in advance.
If you also want to break free from the cycle of blindly following trends and avoid some detours, rather than repeatedly exploring, it's better to clarify your strategic framework first. There is no shortcut to regular investments, but there are methods.
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#美国非农数据超预期 #日本央行加息 Next Week Outlook: Data Intensive Period Before Christmas Holiday
The Christmas holiday in the United States starts next Thursday, but economic data will be concentrated at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the revised annualized GDP data for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures, and the core PCE price index, all of which can reflect the actual temperature of the U.S. economy. Wednesday is the time for the initial jobless claims data to be released. In terms of importance, initial jobless claims are rated four stars, while the others are mostly three stars, having relatively limited impact on the market.
However, the real turning point will be on Thursday—when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks. Last week, the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, a result that the market has already digested. Now everyone wants to know whether there will be further increases in the future and how large those increases might be. If Ueda signals a strong hawkish stance, global financial markets may experience significant volatility, affecting both the cryptocurrency market and gold. But if the tone remains dovish, given that hints were already dropped last Friday, it may be difficult to see substantial gains this week, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating within a wide range.
From the perspective of gold, the resistance level is stuck in the range of 4350-4375, with support seen at 4300. As we enter the end of the month, the probability of completing an annual trend reversal is quite high. My personal view remains bearish, continuing to short at high levels, waiting for the market's true reaction.
During the Christmas period, there may be a "big gift" for everyone; whether it is a surprise or a shock depends on how the central bank responds. The market can change at any time, and I will follow up promptly. Remember one thing—always maintain a sense of awe towards the market.
The Christmas holiday in the United States starts next Thursday, but economic data will be concentrated at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the revised annualized GDP data for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures, and the core PCE price index, all of which can reflect the actual temperature of the U.S. economy. Wednesday is the time for the initial jobless claims data to be released. In terms of importance, initial jobless claims are rated four stars, while the others are mostly three stars, having relatively limited impact on the market.
However, the real turning point will be on Thursday—when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks. Last week, the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, a result that the market has already digested. Now everyone wants to know whether there will be further increases in the future and how large those increases might be. If Ueda signals a strong hawkish stance, global financial markets may experience significant volatility, affecting both the cryptocurrency market and gold. But if the tone remains dovish, given that hints were already dropped last Friday, it may be difficult to see substantial gains this week, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating within a wide range.
From the perspective of gold, the resistance level is stuck in the range of 4350-4375, with support seen at 4300. As we enter the end of the month, the probability of completing an annual trend reversal is quite high. My personal view remains bearish, continuing to short at high levels, waiting for the market's true reaction.
During the Christmas period, there may be a "big gift" for everyone; whether it is a surprise or a shock depends on how the central bank responds. The market can change at any time, and I will follow up promptly. Remember one thing—always maintain a sense of awe towards the market.
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回答一个经常被问到的问题
首先，可能确实最近有些朋友因为各种压力，想赚钱速度快一点放弃Alpha是可以理解的。
如果压力不是很大，或者压力得到缓解后，我还是建议控制自己的欲望，努力让自己慢下来。
在金融市场，慢即是快。特别是Web3这样的高风险领域，和顶着大象走钢丝没什么区别。
所以撸毛、打新、理财、现货等等，这些用来提高“被动收入”的手段，永远都不嫌多。这些都是你用于对抗风险的护城河。何况这里面的收益率其实也不低。
当你一丁点护城河都没有，直面风险，就会像武士决斗，可能你的技艺精湛，但却身披布衣，而做了诸多护城河的，却是身着重甲的钢铁重骑兵。
翻阅推特，每年都可以看到不知道多少身披布衣的超级武士技艺无比精湛，最后还是倒在市场的重击下。
确实，轻装上阵，运气好+技艺精湛可以让你快速积累优势。但情况允许的情况，还是要尽量尽早尽快让自己的血条厚一点，不要被一波带走。#比特币流动性 #加密市场观察
首先，可能确实最近有些朋友因为各种压力，想赚钱速度快一点放弃Alpha是可以理解的。
如果压力不是很大，或者压力得到缓解后，我还是建议控制自己的欲望，努力让自己慢下来。
在金融市场，慢即是快。特别是Web3这样的高风险领域，和顶着大象走钢丝没什么区别。
所以撸毛、打新、理财、现货等等，这些用来提高“被动收入”的手段，永远都不嫌多。这些都是你用于对抗风险的护城河。何况这里面的收益率其实也不低。
当你一丁点护城河都没有，直面风险，就会像武士决斗，可能你的技艺精湛，但却身披布衣，而做了诸多护城河的，却是身着重甲的钢铁重骑兵。
翻阅推特，每年都可以看到不知道多少身披布衣的超级武士技艺无比精湛，最后还是倒在市场的重击下。
确实，轻装上阵，运气好+技艺精湛可以让你快速积累优势。但情况允许的情况，还是要尽量尽早尽快让自己的血条厚一点，不要被一波带走。#比特币流动性 #加密市场观察
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#BTC资金流动性 $SOL 美联储人事调整会影响流动性吗？
眼下市场在盯一个问题：如果美联储领导层出现变化，链上资产流动性会不会跟着波动？$SOL 这类主流币种尤其敏感——前段时间的政策预期就直接砸了一波行情。
核心逻辑其实很简单。美联储的每一次政策信号都会影响全球资本流向。流动性充沛时，机构更敢加仓SOL这类风险资产；一旦预期转向，热钱就会撤离。所以与其纠结人事谁上谁下，不如关注实际政策走向对市场流动性的真实冲击。
眼下市场在盯一个问题：如果美联储领导层出现变化，链上资产流动性会不会跟着波动？$SOL 这类主流币种尤其敏感——前段时间的政策预期就直接砸了一波行情。
核心逻辑其实很简单。美联储的每一次政策信号都会影响全球资本流向。流动性充沛时，机构更敢加仓SOL这类风险资产；一旦预期转向，热钱就会撤离。所以与其纠结人事谁上谁下，不如关注实际政策走向对市场流动性的真实冲击。
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In the cryptocurrency world, some are happy while others are worried
#BTC资金流动性 #巨鲸动向 Have you ever wondered why, in the same market conditions, some people's accounts have multiplied by tens while others keep cutting losses? I have a senior in trading who entered with 100,000, and now his assets have exceeded 42 million. What impressed me the most was something he said: "The essence of this market is a game of the crowd; as long as you can manage your emotions, the market is a money printing machine."
This sentence struck me. I finally understood that making money in the cryptocurrency world is neither purely about luck nor purely about technical analysis; the key is still to control one's own mentality. The same K-line chart shows opportunities to those with a stable mindset, while those whose mindset collapses see only fear.
This sentence struck me. I finally understood that making money in the cryptocurrency world is neither purely about luck nor purely about technical analysis; the key is still to control one's own mentality. The same K-line chart shows opportunities to those with a stable mindset, while those whose mindset collapses see only fear.
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Predictions for the Market Trends After Japan's Interest Rate Hike
#数字资产市场洞察 #日本加息 Japan has just raised interest rates, and the US stock market and cryptocurrency market rebounded for a day. This is normal—bad news has already occurred, and the rebound is an expected adjustment. But the question is, has all the negative news been fully digested? Not necessarily. Looking at the Fed, the probability of a rate cut in January is currently only 24.8%, indicating that the market is still cautious. I noticed a pattern: on the day Japan raises interest rates, there usually isn't a big drop (unless the rate hike date falls at the end of the month), and the real decline often comes about a week later. The last rate hike on January 23 also saw a rebound on the same day, but a week later there was a sharp drop. So now we need to guard against risks.
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SOL Technical Outlook: Solana trading near cycle support level amid ongoing bearish structure
Solana continues to endure persistent bearish pressure after being strongly rejected from a higher Fibonacci resistance zone. The overall trend remains biased towards sellers, with the price currently compressing near a significant long-term demand area, and bearish momentum starting to slow down.
After being rejected at resistance levels of $203 (0.618 Fibonacci) and $225 (0.786 Fibonacci), the downturn accelerated. This rejection marked a sharp decline, pushing the price below critical structural support and triggering several weeks of downward trend.
EMA Structure (Strongly Bearish)
SOL is currently trading below all major moving averages, confirming a bearish market control:
After being rejected at resistance levels of $203 (0.618 Fibonacci) and $225 (0.786 Fibonacci), the downturn accelerated. This rejection marked a sharp decline, pushing the price below critical structural support and triggering several weeks of downward trend.
EMA Structure (Strongly Bearish)
SOL is currently trading below all major moving averages, confirming a bearish market control:
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Crypto market trading execution plan by the end of December 2025 (12.20-12.31)
$ETH 1. Key price levels for core targets (real-time updated benchmark: 12.20 8:00)
Target Core support (stop-loss line) Strong support (extreme defense level) Core resistance (breakthrough line) Strong resistance (target level)
BTC 84,000-85,000 USD 80,000-82,000 USD 88,000-90,000 USD 92,000-94,000 USD
ETH 2750-2800 USD 2630-2700 USD 2900-2950 USD 3000-3300 USD
Mainstream altcoins (SOL/XRP/ADA) recent low -5% recent low -10% recent high +3% recent high +8%
2. Time window and triggering conditions
1. Short-term key window (12.20-12.25)
Target Core support (stop-loss line) Strong support (extreme defense level) Core resistance (breakthrough line) Strong resistance (target level)
BTC 84,000-85,000 USD 80,000-82,000 USD 88,000-90,000 USD 92,000-94,000 USD
ETH 2750-2800 USD 2630-2700 USD 2900-2950 USD 3000-3300 USD
Mainstream altcoins (SOL/XRP/ADA) recent low -5% recent low -10% recent high +3% recent high +8%
2. Time window and triggering conditions
1. Short-term key window (12.20-12.25)
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#Digital Asset Market Insights $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Recently, those sensational headlines online have indeed been flying around—"The Federal Reserve Slashes Interest Rates by 100 Basis Points", "The Renminbi Rushes into the 6 Yuan Era", "The U.S. Bets on Its National Fate". It sounds like the world is about to change, but the reality is not so simple.
First, let's talk about the Federal Reserve. A 100 basis point cut? That has already been completed. From the start of 2024 until now, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut by 175 basis points, which is indeed substantial. But this is just the first half. Now the situation is reversing—future rate cuts will hit the brakes. Why? There are rare internal disagreements, with 3 votes against it, inflation has eased but is not completely eradicated, and the Federal Reserve is also wary of continuing significant loosening.
What about the Renminbi? The 6 Yuan era is still a long way off. The exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 7, having even dropped to as low as 6.93. Those predictions claiming we are entering the "6 era" are at best just institutional opinions and not set in stone. What truly supports the Renminbi is the resilience of the Chinese economy itself.
As for the phrase "The U.S. Bets on Its National Fate", don’t be led by public opinion. To put it bluntly, it is a combination of fiscal stimulus and tax reduction policies; this is strategic planning, not gambling. Interestingly, global large funds are now quietly being redirected, with emerging markets being reassessed by investors.
Here comes the question: Who is actually in control of this round of global economic game? Who is following the trend? How much have you seen through?
Recently, those sensational headlines online have indeed been flying around—"The Federal Reserve Slashes Interest Rates by 100 Basis Points", "The Renminbi Rushes into the 6 Yuan Era", "The U.S. Bets on Its National Fate". It sounds like the world is about to change, but the reality is not so simple.
First, let's talk about the Federal Reserve. A 100 basis point cut? That has already been completed. From the start of 2024 until now, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut by 175 basis points, which is indeed substantial. But this is just the first half. Now the situation is reversing—future rate cuts will hit the brakes. Why? There are rare internal disagreements, with 3 votes against it, inflation has eased but is not completely eradicated, and the Federal Reserve is also wary of continuing significant loosening.
What about the Renminbi? The 6 Yuan era is still a long way off. The exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 7, having even dropped to as low as 6.93. Those predictions claiming we are entering the "6 era" are at best just institutional opinions and not set in stone. What truly supports the Renminbi is the resilience of the Chinese economy itself.
As for the phrase "The U.S. Bets on Its National Fate", don’t be led by public opinion. To put it bluntly, it is a combination of fiscal stimulus and tax reduction policies; this is strategic planning, not gambling. Interestingly, global large funds are now quietly being redirected, with emerging markets being reassessed by investors.
Here comes the question: Who is actually in control of this round of global economic game? Who is following the trend? How much have you seen through?
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December 19th Afternoon Market Analysis
<t-41/>#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期
$BTC trend analysis
The pancake broke through 86138 last week, forming a solid closing, which is a clear bullish signal. Entering long from this point is a good choice, just remember to set a stop loss. On the other hand, if it breaks down here at 85261 with volume, there will basically be no pullback, so it will be time to short, and you must also control the risk. In detail, 83446 is a false breakdown position; if you want to go long, you can enter a position here, but if the low of the false breakdown or 82331 breaks, you must stop loss. In any case, if it can’t recover, don’t hold on to the long position.
$BTC trend analysis
The pancake broke through 86138 last week, forming a solid closing, which is a clear bullish signal. Entering long from this point is a good choice, just remember to set a stop loss. On the other hand, if it breaks down here at 85261 with volume, there will basically be no pullback, so it will be time to short, and you must also control the risk. In detail, 83446 is a false breakdown position; if you want to go long, you can enter a position here, but if the low of the false breakdown or 82331 breaks, you must stop loss. In any case, if it can’t recover, don’t hold on to the long position.
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#Xrp🔥🔥 #日本加息 XRP Technical Outlook: Price Maintains Macro Demand Zone, Descending Channel Dominates Trend
XRP remains in a clearly bearish structure, trading along a defined descending channel, having encountered strong rejection in the supply zone of $3.45–$3.65, with price peaking around Fib 1.0 level ($3.66). This rejection confirms the macro distribution phase and triggered a sustained corrective trend.
Once XRP loses the $2.95–$2.74 area (0.618–0.5 Fib), selling pressure intensifies, and the price decisively breaks below all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing bearish control.
EMA Structure (Strong Bearish Arrangement)
20 EMA – $2.014
50 EMA – $2.171
100 EMA – $2.350
200 EMA – $2.429
All EMAs are sloping downward and stacked above the price, indicating that each rebound faces strong dynamic resistance within the descending channel.
Currently, XRP is consolidating near the major demand zone of $1.85–$1.90, closely corresponding to the Fib 0 level of $1.82. This area has historically been a strong support level, and the current price action shows a slowdown in selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound.
For bulls, the first key recovery level is $2.25 (0.236 Fib). A daily close above this level would indicate early stability. A stronger rebound requires a breakout above $2.52 (0.382 Fib), followed by reclaiming $2.74 (0.5 Fib) – which was previously a major support, now turned resistance.
A complete trend reversal can only be confirmed if XRP returns to $2.96 (0.618 Fib) and breaks out of the descending channel – currently, this scenario seems unlikely without broader market support.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance Levels
$2.014 (20 EMA)
$2.171 (50 EMA)
$2.254 (0.236 Fib)
$2.523 (0.382 Fib)
$2.741 (0.5 Fib)
$2.958 (0.618 Fib)
$3.267 (0.786 Fib)
Support Levels
$1.85–$1.90 (Major Demand Zone)
$1.82 (Fib 0)
$1.60–$1.50 (Extended Downward Support)
📌 Summary
XRP maintains above a key long-term demand zone while still locked within a bearish descending channel. Although selling pressure has eased, a short-term rebound is possible, but unless XRP strongly reclaims the resistance zone of $2.50–$2.75, the overall structure remains bearish. A drop below $1.82 would expose XRP to further downside risk.
$XRP
XRP remains in a clearly bearish structure, trading along a defined descending channel, having encountered strong rejection in the supply zone of $3.45–$3.65, with price peaking around Fib 1.0 level ($3.66). This rejection confirms the macro distribution phase and triggered a sustained corrective trend.
Once XRP loses the $2.95–$2.74 area (0.618–0.5 Fib), selling pressure intensifies, and the price decisively breaks below all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing bearish control.
EMA Structure (Strong Bearish Arrangement)
20 EMA – $2.014
50 EMA – $2.171
100 EMA – $2.350
200 EMA – $2.429
All EMAs are sloping downward and stacked above the price, indicating that each rebound faces strong dynamic resistance within the descending channel.
Currently, XRP is consolidating near the major demand zone of $1.85–$1.90, closely corresponding to the Fib 0 level of $1.82. This area has historically been a strong support level, and the current price action shows a slowdown in selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound.
For bulls, the first key recovery level is $2.25 (0.236 Fib). A daily close above this level would indicate early stability. A stronger rebound requires a breakout above $2.52 (0.382 Fib), followed by reclaiming $2.74 (0.5 Fib) – which was previously a major support, now turned resistance.
A complete trend reversal can only be confirmed if XRP returns to $2.96 (0.618 Fib) and breaks out of the descending channel – currently, this scenario seems unlikely without broader market support.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance Levels
$2.014 (20 EMA)
$2.171 (50 EMA)
$2.254 (0.236 Fib)
$2.523 (0.382 Fib)
$2.741 (0.5 Fib)
$2.958 (0.618 Fib)
$3.267 (0.786 Fib)
Support Levels
$1.85–$1.90 (Major Demand Zone)
$1.82 (Fib 0)
$1.60–$1.50 (Extended Downward Support)
📌 Summary
XRP maintains above a key long-term demand zone while still locked within a bearish descending channel. Although selling pressure has eased, a short-term rebound is possible, but unless XRP strongly reclaims the resistance zone of $2.50–$2.75, the overall structure remains bearish. A drop below $1.82 would expose XRP to further downside risk.
$XRP
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