#美国非农数据超预期 #日本央行加息 Next Week Outlook: Data Intensive Period Before Christmas Holiday

The Christmas holiday in the United States starts next Thursday, but economic data will be concentrated at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the revised annualized GDP data for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures, and the core PCE price index, all of which can reflect the actual temperature of the U.S. economy. Wednesday is the time for the initial jobless claims data to be released. In terms of importance, initial jobless claims are rated four stars, while the others are mostly three stars, having relatively limited impact on the market.

However, the real turning point will be on Thursday—when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks. Last week, the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, a result that the market has already digested. Now everyone wants to know whether there will be further increases in the future and how large those increases might be. If Ueda signals a strong hawkish stance, global financial markets may experience significant volatility, affecting both the cryptocurrency market and gold. But if the tone remains dovish, given that hints were already dropped last Friday, it may be difficult to see substantial gains this week, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating within a wide range.

From the perspective of gold, the resistance level is stuck in the range of 4350-4375, with support seen at 4300. As we enter the end of the month, the probability of completing an annual trend reversal is quite high. My personal view remains bearish, continuing to short at high levels, waiting for the market's true reaction.

During the Christmas period, there may be a "big gift" for everyone; whether it is a surprise or a shock depends on how the central bank responds. The market can change at any time, and I will follow up promptly. Remember one thing—always maintain a sense of awe towards the market.