This news, if you only see one sentence
'Short-term bearish on Bitcoin',
You might mistakenly think this is another 'top shout.'
But Old Stone gives you a key conclusion first:
Luke Gromen does not disbelieve BTC,
He does not believe——
Without the premise of 'nuclear-level money printing',
Liquidity can give you the second wave of the main upward trend.
1. First, clarify: this is not bearish, he is 'one of the earliest bulls.'
The person speaking is:
Luke Gromen
Founder of Forest for the Trees
Long-term Bitcoin macro representatives
He himself stated very clearly:
End of 2022 – beginning of 2023
BTC < 30,000 USD
Establish the majority of positions.
All the way to now, never sold.
What does this mean?
👉 He is not a person who chases highs.
👉 Not a short-term trader either.
So his current 'short-term bearish' is,
It's not a betrayal of stance, but a judgment of rhythm.
Two, the core of his bearish view is just one sentence (very harsh).
The future liquidity environment is:
Either nuclear-level printing,
either continued tightening.
This sentence is the 'outline' of the entire viewpoint.
Three, three reasons, actually point to the same thing.
On the surface, he gave three reasons, but if you break it down, it's essentially the same main line.
① BTC is still highly linked to tech stocks, and the logic of tech stocks is changing.
Luke Gromen points out a change that has been overlooked:
In the past:
👉 Technology = Semiconductors = Computing power.
Now:
👉 The real bottleneck of AI is power and energy.
And what do energy and electricity mean?
👉 Huge capital expenditures.
👉 Extend the return cycle.
👉 Extremely sensitive to interest rates.
The conclusion is:
The valuation model of tech stocks is being revised downwards,
BTC as a 'high Beta risk asset',
It's hard to be independent.
② BTC has not outperformed gold, which is the signal he cares about the most.
This point is very 'old-school', but extremely important.
In Luke Gromen's system:
Gold = liquidity panic anchor.
BTC = New generation currency hedging asset.
If we really enter a loosening cycle, what should you see?
👉 BTC is strengthening relative to gold.
But the reality is:
BTC has not broken through gold.
Gold prices are actually more stable and more allocated.
What does this indicate?
The market does not believe that 'looseness has arrived'.
③ Quantum computing is not tomorrow, but enough to make long-term funds hesitate.
His statement about quantum computing is very restrained:
‘It may become a problem within 2–9 years.’
Note:
👉 Not certainty.
👉 Not immediately.
But for macro funds, there is a principle:
As long as the risk is imaginable,
Will be discounted in advance.
This is also why:
Large funds.
More willing to allocate.
👉 Gold
👉 Physical assets.
👉 Energy.
And not putting all bets on BTC.
Four, why did he specifically mention Tether? This is an 'internal perspective'.
This passage is worth reading repeatedly:
‘The movements of Tether are very worth referencing.’
He mentioned several key facts:
Tether
Recently:
Invest in AI.
Increase gold holdings.
In its balance sheet:
👉 Gold position > Bitcoin position
What does this mean?
👉 Even the company that understands crypto liquidity the most,
Everyone is doing defensive allocation.
This is not bearish on BTC,
But rather:
Prepare for a world of 'non-nuclear-level easing.'
Five, looking at Luke Gromen and Arthur Hayes together, what do you find?
This is the most interesting part today.
Arthur Hayes:
👉 RMP = QE.
👉 BTC will take off at 124,000.
Luke Gromen:
👉 Without nuclear-level printing, don't talk about a new round of main rises.
This is not about who is right or wrong.
This is a collision of two worldviews:
Hayes's bet is:
👉 Policies will be forced to upgrade.
Gromen's bet is:
👉 Policies have not yet reached that step.
Six, Lao Shi's judgment (very important).
I don't take sides, I only tell you how to understand this matter:
1️⃣ Luke Gromen is bearish on the 'short-term liquidity illusion', not on BTC itself.
2️⃣ He is still a long-term holder, just not betting on the second wave of the main rise coming soon.
3️⃣ 'Nuclear-level printing' is the key variable, as long as it does not appear, the market will struggle to walk a straight line for a day.
4️⃣ Strengthening gold + BTC sideways is itself a real vote of macro funds.
In summary:
It's not that Bitcoin has no chance,
It's the liquidity card,
It hasn't been turned over yet.
