隔壁老石

When JUV was pulled out this time, many people's first reaction was:
“Can fan tokens also be talked about in the long term?”

But if you calmly look at the structure, you can only draw one conclusion:

👉 This is not value discovery, but the standard process of event funding.

1. The abnormal movement of JUV is not centered on “football,” but on “capital actions”

JUV being named this time has a very clear trigger point:

Big capital announced deep involvement

Clear expectations of capital scale

Clear targets in the real world

Pay attention to one thing:
👉 The market is not speculating on the team, but on the “capital actions that are certain to happen.”

If you observe a phenomenon:

Whenever the market gets chaotic, XRP is always brought up for discussion.

It's not because it is so strong,
but because - it still carries 'unresolved policy chips.'

1. The most realistic state of XRP now: not new, but not expired yet

What is the biggest characteristic of XRP?

👉 It is one of the few old coins that has been 'formally discussed regarding compliance boundaries.'

Whether you like it or not,
It has gone through:

Regulatory game

Legal rulings

Traditional finance repeatedly testing the waters

This gives XRP a very special positioning:

👉 It is not a narrative of the future, but a 'legacy asset.'

If you have seriously studied ICP,
It's easy to create an illusion:

With such strong technology, why has the price never felt present?

The problem is not with ICP,
but with the market.

1. The biggest advantage of ICP is precisely its 'problem'

Let me first say something fair:

👉 The technology of ICP is definitely in the first tier in the entire crypto circle.

On-chain computing

Decentralized cloud

Native Web3 application runtime environment

these things,
are not PPT, they can actually run.

But the problem is:

👉 The market currently does not pay for 'technical integrity'.

2. Why is funding cold towards ICP?

If you have recently been focusing on DOGE, SHIB, you will notice something very unusual:

They are surprisingly quiet.

Not leading the charge,
Also not collapsing first,
Even the meme sounds on social media have noticeably decreased.

For emotional coins,
This is not the norm,
This is a signal.

1. What emotional coins fear the most is not a drop, but 'no one is excited'

What keeps coins like DOGE and SHIB alive?

👉 Rely on emotions.

Trending

Memeing

Collective resonance

Emotional contagion

But the current problem is:

👉 Emotions are gone.

Not suppressed,
It has been exhausted.

After the market has repeatedly experienced fluctuations, liquidations, and wash trading,

Recently, looking at AVAX and ADA, many people will have a common feeling:
Something feels off.

It's not a crash,
It's not a rebound,
but rather—being slowly marginalized.

This is not an issue with individual projects,
But it's a very clear signal:

👉 The old public chains are being collectively downgraded by the market.

1. The commonality between AVAX and ADA is not in technology, but in their 'position in the era'

When you put these two together, you will find a fact:

The technology is not bad

The ecosystem is not dead

The project is still being updated

But the price has always failed to provide a premium.

Why?

Because they are all stuck in an awkward position:

If you've recently watched SUI, you probably have only one feeling in your heart:
The enthusiasm is gone.

No noise, no explosions, no spamming,
Even those who scold it have decreased.

But this does not mean that SUI has come to an end,
But it has officially entered— the most brutal and also the most real stage of the new chain.

1. The 'cooling down' of SUI is not a price issue, but rather a change in traffic structure.

The first half of the new chain, what does it rely on to survive?

👉 Relying on subsidies, tasks, and novelty.

When incentives are at their most intense:

Money comes in

On the project

Users rush in

Everything seems to be flourishing.

But when the incentives begin to converge,

The recent state of FIL can be summed up in one sentence:
No matter how you stir things up, there's no emotion.

Not rising with the market,
Not falling with the market,
Even those who scold it have started to decrease.

This is not the market treating it well,
Instead — the market no longer expects it to tell a story.

1. The problem with FIL has never been 'useless'

You must first acknowledge one thing:

👉 FIL is truly getting the job done.

Decentralized storage

Long-term data storage

On-chain cold data

These demands have always existed,
and it won't disappear.

So the problem with FIL has never been 'is there demand',
Instead — this demand has long been digested by the market.

The most annoying thing about LINK recently is not the drop,
but rather — it hardly moves.

when emotional coins fluctuate back and forth, and mainstream coins are repeatedly washed,
LINK is like it has been muted.

but if you think it's 'over' because of this,
Then it's highly likely you're misreading the role.

1. The problem with LINK has never been 'whether it is useful'

You have to first acknowledge a fact:

👉 LINK is one of the most genuinely used projects in the entire crypto world.

Price oracle

Data feeding price

Cross-chain information

Financial contract trigger

Whether you play with LINK or not,
Many protocols you use are inextricably linked to it.

What is most eye-catching about PENDLE recently is not the price,

but an action:

Institutions have transferred the chips away.

Many people's first reaction is:

Is the project failing? Is there bad news?

But if you only see 'selling',

then you have missed the truly important thing.

First, let’s state the facts: this is a 'complete exit' transfer.

An institutional address transferred millions of PENDLE,

in one go to the market-making/institutional channel.

It's not a reduction in holdings,

It's not a reallocation,

It's a—complete liquidation action.

This behavior has only one meaning on the chain:

👉 It’s not disappointment with short-term prices, but a judgment on the end of the 'phase logic'.

ZEC has been discussed again these past few days,
Many people's first reaction is: What year is this old coin from?

But those who truly understand the market will realize one thing immediately:

👉 This is not a nostalgic market; it is a reversal triggered by regulatory logic.

1. The reappearance of ZEC is not a price issue, but an "existence issue"

You need to first clarify one thing:

ZEC has never survived on narratives,
Its only meaning of existence is—privacy.

When the market is calm and regulations are loose,
Privacy is "optional".

But when the environment starts to change,
Privacy will come from "corner demand",

If you still understand stablecoins in one sentence:
'After all, it's all pegged 1:1 to the US dollar,'
Then you've already fallen behind this round of changes.

Because now, a transformative event is happening with stablecoins:

👉 They are starting to be officially 'rated'.

1. Stablecoins are no longer just tools, but 'financial liabilities'

In the past, the logic of stablecoins was very simple:

Can it be exchanged for US dollars?

Will it lose its peg?

Can it be redeemed at any time?

But now, the logic has upgraded.

What are stablecoins starting to be seen as?

👉 A financial liability that needs to be assessed for 'repayment ability'.

The recent trend of RAVE, many people's first reaction is:
Is it another short-term pump?

But if you look at the chain, the characters, and the time points together, you will find one thing:
👉 This is not a retail investor market; it's capital execution after the route has been confirmed.

First, let's talk about the hardest fact: whales are not testing the waters, it’s a large move.

Directly using 539 BNB with the address,
Exchange 1.65 million RAVE.

It's not in batches, it's not testing the waters,
It's a one-time asset swap.

and after buying, they didn't leave immediately.

This kind of operation has only one meaning on the chain:

If you've been watching SOL lately, you must have a noticeable feeling:

It has started to become 'frenzied'.

not that kind of slowly rising frenzy,
It dares to give you volume both up and down in a frenzy.

This does not mean the market has improved,
This is where the divergence starts to get out of control.

1. The biggest feature of SOL right now: volatility precedes direction.

You will notice several very typical changes:

The upper and lower shadows have clearly become longer.

scanning for stop losses back and forth during the day.

The rise has not continued, and the pullback is also not decisive.

In summary:

👉 The direction has not emerged yet, but both bulls and bears are starting to exert force.

This corresponds to only one phase in the market:

If you've been watching BNB lately, you'll have a strange feeling:

It neither rises nor falls.
No matter how noisy the market is, it won't follow.

This is not boredom; it's a state that only a few coins can reach.

1. BNB's sideways movement is not weakness; it is 'nailed down'.

When BTC twists the valve back and forth around 90,000,
When ETH is repeatedly consumed at 3080,
BNB, however, is stuck in a very narrow range, firmly held.

You need to understand one thing:

👉 Staying flat is often harder than rising quickly.

Especially when:

The sentiment is extremely fearful.

Altcoins are generally bleeding.

In an environment where crypto stocks are being hammered.

The fact that BNB can still stay flat indicates one thing:

If you've been tormented by ETH recently, it means you are standing at its most dangerous and most real position.

The most glaring number of ETH right now is just one:
3080 USD.

It's not because it is so sacred,
But it is because—this has become everyone's psychological bottom line.

1. 3080 is not support, it's an 'emotional guillotine'.

The recent trend of ETH is very simple:

Every time it dips near 3080, someone buys.

Every rebound is very difficult.

The price doesn't collapse, but it also doesn't give you hope.

This is not strength; this is extreme restraint.

You need to understand one thing:

Now looking at BTC, stop asking whether it’s going up or down.
There is only one real question: when will the main force twist the valve.

BTC price is hovering around 90,000 USD, neither strong nor weak, but stuck in an extremely uncomfortable position.

The 24-hour high is at 92600+, the low is at 89400+, the volatility is not small, but the directional sense has been completely flattened.
This is not a slow decline; it’s compressing the volatility into a knife—specifically to cut leverage.

Firstly, the real key level is not 90,000, but two 'liquidation valves.'

Today, the most important thing about BTC is not the integer levels, but two lines:

If you only look at one sentence, today's news will make you laugh in anger:

Vanguard executives say: Bitcoin is 'digital Labubu', with no long-term investment value.

What does it sound like?
Like an old-school fund manager, instinctively disdainful of new things.

But if you just look at this sentence and what Vanguard is actually doing together, you will find something very disjointed, but very real:

👉 They verbally deny Bitcoin, but have already completely opened the door to Bitcoin ETFs.

1. First look at the data, then look at the attitude (don't just listen to what he says)

If you only see one sentence:

"Bitcoin is just digital Labubu, and it has no long-term investment value."

You might think:
The old stubborn has started to curse again.

But if you listen to the whole passage and then look at what Vanguard is actually doing,
You will find something very interesting:

👉 They deny Bitcoin on the surface, but they have already paved the way for trading.

1. First, break down the phrase 'digital Labubu'.

The logic of Vanguard executives is actually very standard:

Bitcoin has no cash flow

No compound interest

Does not conform to traditional long-term investment models

So in their framework:

In the past few years, all stablecoins have been saying one thing:

"1:1 pegged to the US dollar."

But starting today, this statement is no longer sufficient.

Because Moody's officially said something harsher:

👉 Stablecoins will be rated as 'debt obligations'.

What does this mean?

It means stablecoins,
Officially dragged into the core review area of the traditional credit system.

1. What is Moody's doing? It's not research, it's 'taking over pricing power'.

Many people's first reaction is:
It's just a rating, what's the big deal?

But you should know what role Moody's plays in traditional finance:

Many people see this message on the chain and their first reaction is:

Is the primary institution unable to bear it?
Is PENDLE about to fail?

I'll put the conclusion upfront:

👉 This is not an emotional sell-off; it is a 'confirmation of loss and a repositioning action.'
👉 Moreover, it's not about shorting PENDLE; it's about no longer being willing to bet money on this narrative.

First, let's clarify the 'weight' of this transaction

This is not a scattered reduction; it is a complete liquidation:

Quantity: 411.4 million PENDLE

Buy average price: 3.16 USD

Current price: 2.19 USD

Floating loss: about 399 million USD