Family! Who would have thought that the 'comeback king' of the crypto world in the second half of 2025 would be ZEC, which has been criticized for years as a 'dead fish coin'? From a floor price of $35 in August to a peak of $750 in November, a 2200% increase has completely shattered its 'long-term silence' label! Now it has retraced to around $400 and is consolidating, and I have received hundreds of private messages: 'Old friend, is this a trap at the top or a healthy correction?' 'Newbies want to get in, what should we do if we are afraid of missing out?'
As someone who has been closely watching ZEC for five years and bought in at the bottom around $30 in 2023, I want to share my thoughts with you all. This round of increase is not just retail investors banding together to speculate, but rather a 'value reconstruction' driven by a triple resonance of institutional capital, regulatory logic, and technological breakthroughs! However, there are many hidden dangers behind the opportunities. Read this article carefully before deciding whether to jump in, to avoid being caught off guard.
1. Why has ZEC suddenly "taken off"? Three core logics overturn conventional wisdom.
Many people think ZEC is just about "privacy coin speculation," but the essence of this round of price increase is: it has transformed from a marginal tool into an institutionally recognized "structural defensive asset". These three signals are key:
1. Institutional entry: From "nobody cares" to "public companies rushing to buy."
In the past, when privacy coins were mentioned, institutions would avoid them, but 2025 saw a complete turnaround:
Grayscale dares to take the plunge: in November, it directly submitted an application to the SEC to convert the ZEC trust into a spot ETF! This will be the first ETF application in the privacy sector in the U.S., equivalent to mainstream finance handing ZEC a "compliance entry ticket." Once approved, trillions in capital can legally enter the market, and this potential is much greater than mere speculation. Public companies acting as "coin storage jars": Cypherpunk Technologies holds 230,000 ZEC, accounting for 1.43% of circulation; Reliance Global is even bolder, liquidating other crypto assets and going all in on ZEC as treasury assets. What does this indicate? Companies are beginning to treat ZEC as a "risk-hedging asset in the digital age," rather than a short-term speculative target, effectively solidifying the bottom on the demand side.
My personal observation: The clearest signal of institutional entry is a "quantum change in trading volume". Previously, ZEC's daily trading volume was only tens of millions; now it’s often in the tens of billions, with chips slowly shifting from retail investors to "smart money". This forms the basis for a long-term rise, which cannot be compared to short-term pumps and dumps.
2. The stricter the regulation, the more attractive ZEC becomes? The "scarcity of privacy" has been fully activated.
Global regulatory tightening has instead highlighted ZEC's advantages. This logic sounds contradictory, but it is very realistic:
The "Achilles' heel" of transparent coins has been exposed: the 2025 case in which the U.S. Department of Justice seized a large amount of BTC has left high-net-worth users completely panicked. It turns out that transparent blockchains have no privacy in the face of national-level monitoring! At this point, privacy coins that "can protect asset security" have become a necessity. ZEC's "lifesaving skill": unlike coins like Monero that enforce anonymity, ZEC offers "optional privacy"—you can use a transparent address for compliant transactions or enable shielding mode to protect privacy. This design directly addresses the regulatory "pain points," complying with anti-money laundering requirements while meeting privacy needs, effectively building a bridge between regulatory boundaries and user demand.
I dare say: the future of the privacy coin sector will polarize; "non-compliant anonymous coins" may be gradually eliminated, while ZEC, which can "engage in dialogue with regulators," will become the sole survivor, and its scarcity will only increase.
3. Technology must not lag behind: dual explosion of ecosystem and privacy demand.
Having just a narrative is not enough; technology must keep up. ZEC has finally shaken off the label of "only capable of speculation on concepts":
The official roadmap is crystal clear: the ECC (development team) has released its Q4 plan, focusing on optimizing the Zashi wallet (which was once as difficult to use as an old Nokia, now beginners can easily get started), and adding features like the "temporary transparent address" for new privacy functionality, even advancing network decentralization. This indicates that the project is not stagnating but is continuously generating value. Real demand has been activated: although there is still controversy, on-chain data does not lie. During the price rise, the ratio of ZEC's privacy transactions increased from a historical average of 10% to 30%, and the balance of shielded pools is also increasing. This proves that those buying ZEC are not just speculators but also users who genuinely need privacy protection; the narrative and fundamentals are starting to align.
2. Trading strategy: A must-see plan for beginners: "Bottom fishing + Profit taking + Lifesaving".
As a pragmatic analyst, not providing specific strategies is just playing around! Based on the current price of around $400, I have organized a "low-risk layout plan" that beginners can directly use:
🌍 Bottom-fishing zone: $370-400 (golden pit)
This range is a dual support of "psychological + technical": $400 is a round number, which retail investors have anchored; $370 is a previous breakout point, now retesting the support, akin to "the main force giving beginners a benefit." My operation: Start with 30% of my position at $380, add to 50% at $370, and avoid being fully invested! This prevents being trapped in extreme market conditions.
🎯 Profit-taking targets (take three steps, don’t be greedy).
Target 1: $480-520 (First wave of gains): This range is the resistance zone from recent highs; only after breaking through can we consider it stable. At that point, we can reduce our position by 20%, recover our principal, and let the remaining profits run. Target 2: $650-700 (Medium-term target): This is a historical core resistance area. If we reach here, it indicates that the "digital silver" narrative is recognized by the market, at which point we can reduce our position by 50%, leaving 30% to bet on higher gains. Target 3: $1000+ (Long-term dream): If the Grayscale ETF is approved, or if global risk aversion escalates, ZEC is expected to enter a new valuation range, but this step requires patience; don't expect to get rich overnight.
⚠️ Lifesaving line: below $350 (decisively exit)
This is my repeatedly emphasized "stop-loss red line"! If the price volume breaks below $350 and cannot be quickly recovered, it indicates that the short-term rebound logic has failed, and it may dip to $300 or even lower. Be decisive in stopping losses and exiting, don't hold onto the fantasy of "catching the bottom halfway up the mountain". I personally learned this the hard way in 2019, when I didn't stop loss and went from $200 to $20, a bloody lesson!
3. Risk warning: Avoid these minefields at all costs! (Personal painful experience)
Although ZEC has great potential, the risks are also unparalleled in the crypto space. I have seen too many beginners lose all their principal by ignoring these risks:
1. Speculative nature is too strong, beware of "pump and dump".
ZEC had long-term low trading volume before, and chips may be highly concentrated in a few hands, allowing small amounts of capital to control prices. In this round of 22x price increase, there must be speculative capital involved; once the main force dumps, it will cause a chain reaction of passive exits. Beginners must not chase highs!
2. The narrative and data have a "temperature difference".
Don't let the narrative of "privacy coins" cloud your judgment: on-chain data shows that currently, 70% of ZEC transactions are still transparent. Although the usage rate of privacy transactions is rising, it has not reached a level that supports high valuations. If future privacy demands do not keep up, prices may revert to fundamentals.
3. Regulation is the "Sword of Damocles."
Whether the SEC will approve the ETF is still uncertain, and the EU plans to restrict privacy coin trading by 2027; these are bombs hanging over our heads. Once major trading platforms delist ZEC, liquidity will instantly dry up, and the price may plummet. Be prepared for "regulatory black swans."
4. Beware of the "Doomsday Chariot" curse.
History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme: every time ZEC experiences a wild price surge, it often signals the peak of a bull market (as it did in 2017 and 2021). Now, the overall speculative sentiment in the crypto space is strong; ZEC's price surge may indicate that the market is entering its final phase. It is essential to control positions and not invest all funds.
Finally: Can ZEC rise to $1000? My personal judgment.
As someone who has been watching ZEC for five years, I personally believe: the re-evaluation of ZEC's value has just begun, but the process will be extremely tortuous. If it can hold the $350 support and the Grayscale ETF progresses positively, reaching $1000 is not a dream; but if regulations tighten or privacy demands fall short of expectations, a pullback below $300 is also very normal.
The core strategy for beginners is: don't chase highs, diversify purchases, and strictly stop losses. Use "spare money" to layout, don't think about getting rich overnight with ZEC. In the crypto market, those who make big money are always those who "see through the logic, control risks, and can endure the test of time," not the retail investors following the hype.
Now it's your turn: Do you think ZEC can break above the previous high of $750? Is $400 a bottom-fishing opportunity or a peak? Leave your views in the comments section. The top 3 fans with the most likes will receive a private message with my "exclusive data table on ZEC institutional holdings" (which organizes the holdings changes of 10 key institutions, a must-have for beginners to avoid pitfalls)!
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