The market always nurtures hope in despair and buries risks in enthusiasm.
At the moment when Sister Bei cleared all her holdings, she wrote a sentence in her friend circle: 'Having survived the bear market three years ago, I almost died in this bull market.' In this instance, she lost a million and chose to stay out of the market for a break. As someone who has been in the crypto market for many years, I completely understand her choice, but I do not agree with it.
Data shows that as of November 2025, Ethereum only had three months of increases this year: May, July, and August. Even with the support of Wall Street ETF funds, the months of decline during the 'bull market' accounted for three-quarters. If you held Ethereum since April 2021, after four and a half years, compared to the current price, the returns on long-term holdings are almost zero.
Market sentiment: the truth behind the data
In the past 24 hours, nearly 160,000 people in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching $580 million. This scene is reminiscent of the previous 'liquidation event.'
What is more concerning is that long-term holders are concentrating their sell-offs. Blockchain data indicates that in the past 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins, the highest level of sell-off activity since the beginning of 2024.
However, market sentiment has fallen into a strange contradiction: on one hand, the fear index has reached a six-month low; on the other hand, the holdings of whale addresses with over 1,000 BTC have increased by 2.1%. This indicates that major funds may be accumulating at low levels while retail investors are panic selling.
Ethereum: Strong fundamentals and divergence from market performance
Ethereum processes about $17 billion in transactions daily, surpassing Bitcoin, demonstrating its high popularity and large network utilization. Currently, over 123 million Ethereum addresses are registered, with about 4.5 million active addresses daily.
From a technical development perspective, Layer 2 solutions are rapidly expanding. Layer 2 ecosystem tokens like Arbitrum and Optimism saw an average increase of 18% in November, significantly outperforming the market. The total locked value in these Layer 2 networks has increased by 32% month-on-month to $28.7 billion.
Institutional funds are also quietly laying out their plans. BlackRock's Ethereum trust ETF has accumulated over 3 million ETH. The cryptocurrency holding rate in Europe has reached 24%, and countries like Germany and Switzerland have included cryptocurrencies in pension allocation options.
The strong fundamentals contrast sharply with the weak market performance. This is the most paradoxical contradiction in the current market: good students are getting poor grades.
Investor psychology: the cycle from 'excessive optimism' to 'panic selling'
Crypto market players exhibit a systematic emotional change process when facing market fluctuations. The market conditions at the beginning of 2025 are a typical manifestation of this psychological cycle.
At that time, Bitcoin's price broke $100,000, triggering excessive optimism among investors regarding the 'altcoin season.' Many blindly believed that the altcoin market would quickly rebound, ignoring the fact that 'a stablecoin worth one dollar has already leveraged an eighteen-dollar cryptocurrency market cap.'
When the market corrects, cognitive dissonance and loss aversion psychology begin to take effect. Many investors are unwilling to cut losses and instead choose to 'average down,' resulting in greater losses.
Keynes's theory of the 'beauty contest game' is vividly manifested in the cryptocurrency market: most investors do not make decisions based on the intrinsic value of assets but rather predict market trends based on the behavior of others. This groupthink and herd effect amplify the market's short-term volatility.
Is there dawn after darkness? My personal view on the future
Historical data shows that after Bitcoin touches the 200-day moving average, the average return rate within three months reaches 47%. This data provides a glimmer of hope for a possible rebound in the market.
Technological innovation continues to advance. The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is becoming a new growth point, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity accelerating the layout of government bond tokenization products. The short-term scale of the US Treasury RWA protocol has exceeded $1.2 billion.
With the advancement of the Pectra upgrade and the expansion of Layer 2 solutions, Ethereum's transaction speed and cost issues are expected to improve further. These technological improvements may lay the foundation for the next round of growth.
But I want to pour some cold water: the core issue currently facing Ethereum is not technology, but positioning. It wants to be both a store of value asset and a smart contract platform, but these two narratives currently have an inherent contradiction.
Since last year, Ethereum's market share in the public chain transaction fee market has continued to shrink, dropping from first to fourth, accounting for only 17%. The rise of competitors like Solana has indeed diverted Ethereum's activity and funds.
Conclusion: Patience and the courage to go against the trend
Blockchain data shows that when Bitcoin dropped below $88,000, long positions worth $930 million were liquidated within an hour, forming a 'drop → liquidation → accelerated drop' death spiral. However, during the same period, the holdings of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increased by 2.1%.
In this market, new money yearns to get rich quick, while old money just wants to escape. When the next market frenzy arrives, those investors who panicked and left will become the ones chasing the highs. This market is never short of volatility; what it lacks is patience and the courage to go against the trend.
I personally maintain a long-term optimistic view on Ethereum, but must admit that its future path will not be smooth sailing. For those who truly believe in the future of blockchain, the current low may be a good opportunity for positioning.#巨鲸动向 $ETH
