Dear friends, tonight's ETH movement is more thrilling than a suspense drama! As the US stock market finally catches a breath and rebounds by 340 points, attempting to heal the wounds of a three-day, thousand-point plunge, Ethereum is quietly staging a 'long-short life-and-death game' at the $3000 threshold. Why do I dare to increase my position at an average price of $2950? Let me share my thoughts as a veteran in crypto who has endured countless night trading sessions.
1. Market sentiment: The 'wolf-like' greed hidden in panic.
The current ETH price is stuck at $2982, with the 1-hour MACD golden cross stirring, but the 4-hour chart is still pressured by the 50-day moving average ($3120). Interestingly, the Fear and Greed Index remains at 34 (fear zone), identical to the desperate moment at the end of November, but on-chain data reveals the truth: the ETH reserves on exchanges have dropped from 16.4 million to 16.28 million in the past 7 days, with a net outflow of 120,000! This indicates that large holders are secretly moving their chips into cold wallets, clearly showing a 'holding for a rise' mentality.
Even more extreme is the derivatives market: Although the funding rate is slightly positive (Binance 0.0042%), the open interest surged 8.42% in 24 hours, and the short liquidation amount reached $61.7 million, which is clearly a warning signal for a short squeeze! It's like a group of vultures circling around the $3000 mark; just one bullish candle can trigger a wave of short covering.
2. Technical aspect: The 'spring effect' behind the shrinking volatility
The drop from $3446 to $2772 is essentially an overreaction to the Federal Reserve's dovish-to-hawkish remarks. But now? The daily RSI is stuck at the oversold edge of 45.9, while the lower Bollinger Band ($2943) is like a spring supporting the price. My judgment is: as long as it does not fall below the $2900 defense line, the rebound structure is not yet invalidated.
Key resistance levels are clear at a glance:
Near-term resistance: $3007 (4-hour super trend line) + $3025 (50-day moving average), breaking through here can trigger FOMO sentiment;
Ultimate target: $3150-$3180 (200-day moving average + previous high resistance zone), but it requires increased trading volume to cooperate.
Let me share a detail: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through a months-long downtrend, and some chart analysts have even drawn a 'head and shoulders' pattern, with a long-term target pointing to $7600! Although it's a bit fantastical, the technicians have already begun to bet.
3. Risk warning: Avoid these minefields!
ETF funds continue to flow out: BlackRock and other institutional ETFs have seen a net outflow of $533.1 million in the last five days, which indeed suppresses prices in the short term. But conversely, when retail investors panic and sell, institutions are picking up the pieces in the OTC market, which is reminiscent of the washout before a bull market.
On-chain activity has decreased: Ethereum network fees have plummeted by 45% in the last 30 days, but the activity of L2 protocols Arbitrum and Base has instead increased. This indicates that funds are migrating deeper into the ecosystem, not that no one is playing, but that the gameplay has upgraded.
A macro bomb is coming tonight: The U.S. CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting this evening may once again trigger volatility. But if the data is dovish, it could very well become a catalyst for a rebound.
4. My operating strategy: $2950 is not the endpoint, but the starting line.
For those who have already bottomed out at $2910-$2920, I suggest:
Position holder: Maintain a stop-loss at $2900, and after breaking $3030, gradually increase positions;
Onlookers: Allocate positions in the 2930-2950 range during the pullback, remember 'buy when it dips, sell when it rises';
Ultimate target: In the short term, look at $3100-$3150, and if it stabilizes at $3200 in the medium term, then the bull market structure is confirmed.
As I often say: 'The market always emerges from despair and rises in hesitation.' When the market cries out due to short-term bearishness, don't forget that behind Ethereum are the Fusaka upgrade and the institutional tokenization wave, these hardcore logics. After all, even Tom Lee dares to call a Q1 2026 target of $10,000, so why be timid below $3000?
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