To write about UNI, we must start with today's news—
The final governance vote on the Uniswap 'fee switch proposal' has begun.
Old Stone will give you a key conclusion:
UNI is transitioning from a 'governance token' to a 'cash flow asset.'
Once this step is successful, the valuation logic of UNI will completely change.
First, let's clarify the facts: Uniswap is no longer a 'DeFi project,' but rather infrastructure.
If you look at Uniswap now, its identity has changed:
DEX has maintained the top market share for a long time.
Daily trading volume stabilizes at the level of tens of billions of dollars.
v2 / v3 has already become the 'industry default template'.
v4 + Hooks continue to evolve towards 'programmable liquidity'.
In summary:
Uniswap is not competing for users, but defining standards.
And when a protocol becomes a 'standard', what is its most valuable asset?
👉 The right to charge.
Two, what does the fee switch mean? It is not 'good news', but a 'valuation paradigm shift'.
The key points of this governance are only three (directly translated into money):
1️⃣ v2 / v3 opens the fee switch.
2️⃣ 100 million UNI burned.
3️⃣ Protocol income begins to relate to UNI holders.
What is the essence of these three things combined?
UNI has its 'potential cash flow anchor' for the first time.
In a:
ETF outflows
The market is bearish.
Risk appetite decline
In an environment where the most easily revalued assets are:
'On-chain infrastructure with real income, denominated in dollars.'
Uniswap hits the bullseye.
Three, why is UNI even more dangerous in today's market environment (for shorts)?
Look at today's data structure:
BTC ETF -1583 million.
ETH ETF -759 million.
Stablecoin market capitalization 309.298 billion USD (historical high).
What does this indicate?
Speculative funds retreat, but settlement and trading demand remain.
And Uniswap's income precisely comes from:
Stablecoin exchange.
High-frequency hedging.
Asset rebalancing.
These demands will not disappear in a bear market, but will instead become more frequent.
So when the fee switch is activated, UNI's logic will shift from:
'Will it rise?'
Transform into
'How much can be distributed/burned in a year?'
This is a completely different valuation system.
Four, the biggest misunderstanding about UNI: It is not 'DeFi Beta', but 'DEX Alpha'.
Many people regard UNI as:
'DeFi moves with ETH, its beta.'
This is wrong.
The reality is:
ETH volatility → More frequent trading.
Market volatility → Higher hedging demand.
Stablecoin scale expands → More intensive exchanges.
In other words:
The more complex the market, the busier Uniswap gets.
This is also why,
UNI's 'fundamentals' and emotional fluctuations are not synchronized in the long term.
Five, how to operate the market? Under the premise of 'bearish for half a year', UNI's correct posture.
Lao Shi directly provides you with executable judgment logic:
① Do not chase the sentiment on the day of voting results.
Positive news has long been anticipated.
The higher the surge, the easier it is to be hit.
② Look at the two confirmation signals.
Are on-chain fees truly flowing back?
Is UNI burn being continuously executed?
As long as these two things get going, UNI's bottom will be raised step by step.
③ There is only one risk point.
If the fee switch is repeatedly delayed/discounted.
Then UNI is still just a 'governance story'.
In summary, the strategy is:
UNI is not a short-term speculation, but a patient game of 'waiting for cash flow to be recognized by the market'.
Six, UNI's real positioning in the top 20 (here's a reference table for you).
BTC: Directional asset.
ETH: Settlement layer.
LINK: Data entry.
TRX: Stablecoin channel.
UNI: The 'charging rights' of on-chain exchanges.
The common characteristics of these types of assets are:
Will not give you the fastest increase.
But once the pricing model shifts,
Looking back, you'll find: the cheap times were very short.
Seven, Lao Shi's final conclusion (can be copied directly):
The key to UNI is not whether 'DeFi will revive',
But it lies in: when the market begins to tire of the narrative,
Are you willing to pay for 'real, sustainable on-chain income'?
The fee switch is a multiple-choice question for the market from Uniswap.\u003cc-14/\u003e
