The chart is silent, yet it reveals the truth of the bullish and bearish struggle. While the public falls into panic, I see an opportunity in the fluctuations of ETH.
Yesterday morning, when I reviewed the four-hour chart of ETH, I found that the price was struggling repeatedly around $2820, but each time it dipped, it was invisibly supported. This kind of trend reminds me of an old market saying: 'Markets are born in despair and rise in hesitation.'
Currently, most retail investors are being shaken out, unaware that this wave of volatility is likely a carefully planned washout. Each time the price approaches around $2760, a mysterious buying support appears, indicating that large funds are quietly positioning themselves.
01 The language behind the charts: Understanding the true intentions of the market
Technical indicators can be drawn, but the relationship between volume and price is hard to disguise. Recently, ETH's trend reveals two key signals worth our deep consideration.
From a technical analysis perspective, ETH is forming a potential V-shaped recovery pattern on the daily chart. Each pullback does not break the previous low, and this structure lays a solid foundation for subsequent rises.
What’s more noteworthy is that although the price performance is flat, the open interest in Ethereum futures has steadily increased, soaring from less than $10 billion to a peak of over $35 billion. This indicates that traders tend to maintain their positions rather than close them, and large investors' confidence in Ethereum continues to grow.
On-chain data provides stronger evidence: the exchange's ETH reserves dropped from 16.4 million ETH to 16.28 million ETH, with net outflows showing that holders prefer to withdraw to cold wallets, forming a medium-term bullish signal.
02 Market sentiment and capital: Hidden bullish factors
Market sentiment indicators show an increased willingness to buy among investors. Although the ETF capital flow data appears to show net outflows on the surface, it can actually be interpreted as a positive signal of tightening supply.
Since late October, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF has recorded a net inflow of $209 million during the week. Although there has been a net outflow in recent days, it also means that potential selling pressure is decreasing.
The regulatory environment is also quietly improving. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved broker-dealer custody of crypto assets, creating a more friendly compliance environment for institutional capital inflows.
Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is nearing the weekly EMA200, which is a long-term key support. Smart money always quietly positions itself when the public is in panic, and the current market sentiment is in the extreme fear range, historical data shows this sentiment often accompanies technical rebounds.
03 My trading plan and key position analysis
As a cautious trader, I always follow the principle of 'plan your trade, trade your plan.' Here are the key price levels and market scenario analyses for the next steps:
My core support area is between $2760 and $2800, which coincides with the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Band and previous lows. As long as this support is not effectively broken, my bullish stance will not change.
On the upside, the first resistance level to watch is around $2870. After breaking through, it may test the $2940-$2960 area, where the Fibonacci retracement level and short-term moving averages intersect.
My specific operational strategy is: to lightly test the long position near $2820, with a stop loss set below $2780. If the price pulls back without breaking the $2760 support, consider gradually increasing the position; once it breaks through the $2870 resistance with volume, plan to add to the position.
Risk control should always be a priority. If the price breaks below $2760 and confirms the breach, I will stop loss and wait for a better entry opportunity. In such a volatile market, discipline is the key that distinguishes ordinary traders from smart investors.
The market will not immediately rise due to our expectations, but it will always reward those patient enough to position themselves when no one is paying attention. Data shows that when the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is in the extreme fear range, it often accompanies technical rebounds. Right now, I choose to accompany those smart funds that quietly accumulate during fluctuations.
Don't wait until the price soars to chase high; the real strategy is always completed during fluctuations. The lessons learned from being washed out at $2780 are precisely to make us firmer this time.
