Wind
Who understands, family! At the end of the year, the predictions in the crypto world are comparable to a fantasy drama scene. Fundstrat, under Tom Lee, directly throws out a 'splitting bomb'—on one hand, saying Bitcoin could drop to 60,000-65,000 in the first half of 2026, Ethereum 1,800-2,000, and SOL as low as 50-75 for a bargain; on the other hand, they slap their chest and guarantee that Bitcoin will surge to 115,000 and Ethereum will touch 4,500 by the end of the year! First a drop of one fourth, then a rise of eighty percent, this script is more thrilling than stock market novels. Many old friends privately ask me: is this a money-giving opportunity or a trap to cut leeks? Today, I'll reveal the details of this prediction, all practical advice, I suggest you save it!
Let’s talk about how "anti-human nature" this prediction is. Bitcoin is still hovering around 80,000, and directly bearish to 60,000 is equivalent to smashing 25% of the market value; Ethereum’s current price around 2,700, and the direct target of 1,800 cuts a third off; SOL is even harsher, equivalent to halving from the current price and then discounting. Analyst Sean Farrell’s reasoning is straightforward: the first half of the year needs to digest a pile of market risks, and it can only go into battle lightly after falling thoroughly; these lows are just "money-giving entry tickets."
Let me insert my core view here: the logic of "falling through before rising" can be self-consistent, but the premise is that it must "fall thoroughly" and "risks can truly be cleared out," and what the crypto circle lacks the most is "unexpected black swans." First, let me break down the useful insights from this prediction—why does the report dare to blow up Ethereum as the "top student in crypto risk aversion," even saying it’s stronger than Bitcoin? These three points indeed hit the pain points of the current market, and I’ll clarify them for everyone:
First, there is no risk of miner sell pressure. Ethereum has long bid farewell to the mining era after the merge, and there will be no situation where "miners dump due to cost issues"; this aspect is indeed more stable than Bitcoin. Second, it is not affected by the fluctuations in a single major holding. Everyone knows that MSTR holds a huge amount of Bitcoin, and its leveraged operations often skew Bitcoin’s trend, but Ethereum is basically unaffected by this wave, showing greater independence. Third, the technical level of risk resistance is superior, especially regarding quantum risks; Ethereum's technical architecture is more resilient than Bitcoin’s. Objectively speaking, these three analytical points are sound, and it’s one of the reasons I always feel that Ethereum’s long-term logic is clearer than Bitcoin’s.
But don’t let this wave of "rainbow farts" cloud your judgment! I must pour a bucket of cold water, as there are two fatal flaws hidden in this prediction. The first is the neglect of the bottom-supporting effect of major holdings—currently, MSTR holds 44.3 billion dollars in Bitcoin, and buying the dip has become its routine operation; can it really drop to 60,000? I hold a skeptical attitude, unless there is a global liquidity crisis, otherwise this price point is likely just "pie in the sky." The second is underestimating the market complexity in 2026; the crypto market is no longer an era where "speculating on narratives leads to price increases"; fragmented regulation, shrinking liquidity, and competition from other public chains’ technologies are all pitfalls that can cause predictions to fail. Even if it really drops to the target price, whether it can withstand further drops is uncertain.
The complaints from netizens resonate with my heart: "In the first half of the year, I was forced to sell at mid-mountain, and in the second half, I’m asked to chase high and take over? What’s the difference between this operation and sending heads?" Some people also said, "The analysts' words are as reliable as weather forecasts; last year they called for a bull market, this year they call for a pullback, and next year they’ll say it’ll drop first and then rise. Whether it’s accurate or not depends entirely on luck." What’s even more interesting is that the report also left a "backdoor"—if there’s no drop in the first half of the year, just maintain a defensive posture and wait for the trend to clarify. This statement is akin to saying nothing, a typical rhetoric of "attack when possible, defend when necessary," shifting all the risk to ordinary investors.
Of course, we can’t just dismiss it outright, as Ethereum’s potential opportunities are indeed worth paying attention to. Currently, Ethereum's staking annual yield can reach 4%-6%; if subsequent staking-related products are approved, institutional funds will likely flock in. By then, it will be "able to earn from price increases and also earn from interest," which is indeed more attractive than Bitcoin, which can only profit from price increases. But this is a long-term logic, unrelated to whether it drops in the first half of the year; don’t confuse it with the analysts’ statements.
Finally, here’s my heartfelt advice to you all: the essence of this prediction is "bottom-fishing thinking"; the harder it falls, the greater the rebound space, but the crypto circle has never had predictions of "guaranteed profits"—only lessons of "chasing highs and killing dips." If you believe it, you’re afraid of being "lured into shorting" and getting cut; if you don’t believe it, you’re afraid that if it really drops, you won’t have the opportunity to get in. My approach is: don’t treat the analyst’s script as an operational manual, divide the position into three tiers; if it really drops near the target price, don’t go all in, first try a small position; if it doesn’t drop, just observe, don’t bottom-fish for the sake of bottom-fishing.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin at 60,000 and Ethereum at 1,800 is a "golden pit" or a "bottomless abyss" will only be revealed at the end of the first half of the year. I will continue to follow market trends and dissect market signals in real-time. Do you think this prediction is reliable? If it really drops to the target price, would you dare to get in? Let’s chat about your views in the comments section, follow me to avoid getting lost, and let’s rationally see the truth behind various "big events" in the crypto circle! #In-depth analysis of the crypto market #Follow me for Bitcoin and Ethereum trends, don’t get lost!
