Last week the backend crashed, and there were all these newbies asking, 'Can I invest in XX altcoin?' and 'Should I cut my losses during the pullback?'—Looking at these questions, I seemed to see myself 12 years ago when I first entered the market: clutching my 30,000 savings, staring wide-eyed at the 'hundred times coin' leaderboard, and ending up with just enough for instant noodles after losing everything in half a month. Let's not beat around the bush today; as an analyst who has survived three market cycles in the crypto world, going from losing everything to steady profits, I’m here to tell you with the experience I gained through real investments: the crypto space is no longer the era where 'all in on altcoins will make you rich.' If you want to survive and make money, focus on these 3 things!
Let me splash some cold water on newcomers: don't treat altcoins as 'high-multiplier Bitcoin' anymore! This is the most fatal misconception I have ever seen.
Some may argue: 'In the early days, some people made hundreds of times by copying projects!' This statement is not wrong, but that's the old story from 2017 and 2021. The market has changed drastically—ever since the spot ETF was established, the capital in the crypto space has divided into 'two worlds': those buying Bitcoin and Ethereum are all traditional financial 'regulars', like family offices and pension funds, moving tens of billions of dollars, focusing on hard indicators like macroeconomics, interest rate policies, and ETF fund flows; while the players in altcoins are still those VCs, large on-chain players, and retail investors looking to gamble, relying on 'new chains launching' and 'airdrop expectations'—these intangible narratives.
This leads to a funny yet cruel reality: when Bitcoin is flat, a certain small public chain may secretly pump; by the time you chase in, the funds have already run off to speculate on AI concept coins; a new hot spot emerges weekly, and by the time retail investors react, the altcoin season has long ended. I saw a newcomer last year who chased after the hot spots, investing in 5 coins, each losing 20%, and eventually had only a small amount left in their account, crying and asking me what to do—I told them this isn't trading; it's being a 'sucker' for the big players!
After discussing misconceptions, let's get to the core! Based on my 12 years of experience, the core of surviving and profiting in the crypto space boils down to 3 things; newcomers can follow these to avoid 90% of the detours:
First, position management is life; don't gamble with your life! I have always used the 'three-thirds' position rule, which I have tested to be effective: divide the capital into 3 parts, invest 30% in core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have institutional backing and strong risk resistance; even if the market drops, they won't go to zero; allocate 30% as flexible trading capital, waiting for clear trend signals (like moving averages forming a bullish arrangement, breaking through key levels) before entering the market, holding positions for 2-3 days to take profits without being greedy; lock the remaining 40% in a cold wallet; no matter how much the market crashes, don't touch it—this is your 'life-saving money' that allows you to have capital to rebound in a bear market.
Here's a lesson from my painful experience: In the early days, I didn't believe in the risks and put 80% of my funds into an altcoin, resulting in the project team running away, and I was back to square one overnight. Later, I strictly implemented a three-thirds strategy; even when facing the bear market of 2022, my account only had a slight drawdown without any major damage. Last year, a fan followed me using this method, turning a 10,000 capital into 18,000 in half a year; although they didn’t get rich, they made a guaranteed profit, which is much better than blindly fumbling around.
Second, be ruthless with stop losses and steady with take profits; don't go against human nature! The most common mistake for newcomers is to 'hold on when losing and run when making a profit': think it will bounce back when losing 10%, can't bear to cut losses at 20%, and eventually collapse completely after a 50% loss; panic and sell after making 5%, only to see it rise 50% later, regretting it afterward. My rule is: keep the stop loss for a single trade strictly within 1%; sell when it hits the point, never hesitate—like with 10,000 capital, the maximum loss per trade should be 100; even if I judge wrongly, there's still a chance to come back; when profits reach 10%, take half off the table, and let the remaining half follow the trend; even if it retracts later, I've already made 5% without a loss.
Third, don't be brainwashed by the 'narrative'; learn to look at the real data! There are too many 'stories' in the crypto space now, like 'AI + Crypto', 'Modular Public Chains', 'DePIN Track', which confuse newcomers. But I tell you: 90% of the narratives are tools for the big players to harvest profits. I determine whether a project is worth paying attention to by looking at two data points: first, the flow of funds on the blockchain, whether there are large players continuously entering; second, the project's actual application, whether it can solve real problems. Projects that rely only on storytelling and have no practical applications, no matter how popular they are, should not be touched; if you do, it's just giving away money.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart: The crypto space is not a casino, but a battlefield testing discipline and cognition. Those who can survive and make money in the crypto space are not just lucky; they can control their hands and stick to their rules. Newcomers shouldn't think about getting rich overnight; first learn to survive, then slowly make money.
Next, I will continue to dissect market trends: for instance, 'how to predict Bitcoin pullbacks in advance through on-chain data' and '3 precise entry signals for swing trading'; these are all practical insights I have summarized over many years of actual combat. Newcomers can learn from these to avoid most pitfalls. Follow me if right now you feel helpless, confused about trading, and want to learn more about the crypto space and cutting-edge information.
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